Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions

In Bukit Gantang, 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 voter ICs were deleted after GE12. But 128 of these additions and deletions are actually the same police voters having their IC number format changed. The most changes took place in Changkat Jering DUN. The largest additions are in the 21-29 age group, and largest deletions in the 71-79 age group.

Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 128 police IC number changes. As for the roughly 900 regular voter additions and deletions over the first 3 quarters of 2008, the size of changes do not look abnormal. Only field verification can tell more.

Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification. They can be broken down by:

• DUN, DM, TM, streams, or localities
• Age
• postal vs non-postal voters
• postal voters who have their ICs changed, or real changes (move-ins and move-outs).

Where do these data come from?

• We compare 2 electoral rolls, data as of 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election),
• We trawled the data for voter IC which exist in the older GE12 roll, but do not exist in the newer by-election rolls. These are the "deleted" voters,
• We trawled for the voter IC which exist in the newer by-election rolls, but do not exist in the the older GE12 roll. These are the "added" voters,

Table A shows that, in Bukit Gantang (P029):

• Overall, it looks like 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 deleted.
• In reality, 128 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 128 police personnel who remained in Bukit Gantang, only having their IC numbering changed,
  
• Examples of actual pairs of changed police IC: RT008120>RFT8120; RT009431>RFT9431; R0091282>RF91282; R0101133>RF101133
• Non-police voter additions (new registrations, moved in) totaled 920 during the 3 quarters, and deletions (moved out, death, other reasons) totaled 829,
• The net change was 91 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 55,562.

Table A: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview

Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219	Deletions	Additions	Net changes
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees)	829	920	91
Police/military voter - change in IC number format	128	128	0
Police/military voter - real change in registration	0	0	0
Apparent changes in all voters	957	1,048	91
	20080205	20090219	Difference
Total voter count	55,471	55,562	91

Table B shows:

• How voter additions and deletions are grouped into locations, by DM and DUN,
• This table contains only voters with 12-digit ICs (include postal voters who are absentee, non-police, non-military, voters).
  
• Changkat Jering has the largest number of changes, followed by Kuala Sapetang.
• In Changkat Jering, the 3 DMs with the most changes are Pengkalan Aor, Jalan Simpang, and Larut Tin.
  

Table B: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel

Does not exist in this electoral roll			20090200	20080205
Exists in this electoral roll			20080205	20090200
Meaning …			Deleted	Added
parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Count	Count
0591301	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	22	63
0591302	Kuala Sapetang	Ayer Puteh	12	12
0591303	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	21	68
0591304	Kuala Sapetang	Jebong	39	22
0591305	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	38	44
0591306	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Menteri	23	23
0591307	Kuala Sapetang	Matang Gelugor	6	4
0591308	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Limau	6	6
0591309	Kuala Sapetang	Jalan Mangala	27	22
0591310	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Jaha	5	4
0591311	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Mati	10	10
0591312	Kuala Sapetang	Bendang Siam	21	9
0591313	Kuala Sapetang	Changkat Ibol	33	32
Subtotal	Kuala Sapetang		263	319
0591401	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	47	80
0591402	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	25	48
0591403	Changkat Jering	Simpang Baru	20	23
0591404	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	34	81
0591405	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	49	66
0591406	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	38	77
0591407	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	39	58
0591408	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	31	38
0591409	Changkat Jering	Jelutong	16	15
0591410	Changkat Jering	Bukit Gantang	32	11
0591411	Changkat Jering	Kampong Cheh	26	5
Subtotal	Changkat Jering		357	502
0591501	Trong	Kuala Trong	11	10
0591502	Trong	Pasir Hitam Trong	7	0
0591503	Trong	Kampong Tebok Trong	6	2
0591504	Trong	Trong	18	5
0591505	Trong	Trong Barat	13	8
0591506	Trong	Bukit Gantang Selatan	18	4
0591507	Trong	Ayer Terjun	15	3
0591508	Trong	Temelok	15	5
0591509	Trong	Sungai Che Rahmat	5	2
0591510	Trong	Permatang Raja	21	20
0591511	Trong	Sungai Tinggi	28	24
0591512	Trong	Padang Gajah	30	6
0591513	Trong	Batu Hampar	16	9
0591514	Trong	Sungai Rotan	6	1
Subtotal	Trong		209	99
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters			829	920

Table C shows that:

• Of the 829 deletion, the most deletions occur in the age groups of 50-89,
• Of the 920 addition, nearly 600 came from the 21-29 age group.
• This table includes only the 12-digit-IC (non-police) voters.
  

Table C: P059 Bukit Gantang Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups

Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Deleted in	Added in				Deleted	Added
Group	From	To	20090219?	20090219?	Net	Change %		% of total	% of total
21-29	1979	1987	17	596	579	3405.9%		2.1%	64.8%
30-39	1969	1978	69	180	111	160.9%		8.3%	19.6%
40-49	1959	1968	72	90	18	25.0%		8.7%	9.8%
50-59	1949	1958	124	34	(90)	-72.6%		15.0%	3.7%
60-69	1939	1948	162	16	(146)	-90.1%		19.5%	1.7%
70-79	1929	1938	200	3	(197)	-98.5%		24.1%	0.3%
80-89	1919	1928	127	1	(126)	-99.2%		15.3%	0.1%
90-99	1909	1918	27	-	(27)	-100.0%		3.3%	0.0%
100+	1884	1908	31	-	(31)	-100.0%		3.7%	0.0%
Total			829	920	91	11.0%		100.0%	100.0%

Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:

• 1001 Police IC Changes = 1001 Potential Confusions
• Were 900+ Voters Deleted and Replaced in Permatang Pauh?
• Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4
• Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions
• Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters
  
• Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions