Army/Police Movements - Where To and From

Army/Police Moving To Setiawangsa, From Lumut, etc

The tables below show where army/police postal voters were moved in to ("Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat" or Malvu change type 12) and moved out from ("Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat" or Malvu change type 32). Army/Police voters are defined as those voters whose last 3-digit locality codes are 400s to 700s.

Here are some observations for the pre-GE quarter of 2007q4:

• 3,322 army/police voters moved into P118 KL's Setiawangsa, while 1,737 moved out, with net increase of 1,585 army/police voters.


• Sabah>Sepanggar>Karambunai (Kod 17112) saw a net increase of 506 army/police voters. Selangor>Subang>Kota Damansara (Kod 10739) saw a net increase of 306 army/police voters.


• The largest net sources of army/police voters were Perak>Lumut >Pangkor (Kod 07452), seeing 1,762 moved in, 2,460 moved out, with a net decrease of -698 army/police voters.

Table A: 2007q4: Army/Police Voter Changes Type 12 (Moved IN), Type 32 (Moved OUT), and Net

				Moved	Moved	Net
Kod	Negeri	NamaParlimen	NamaDUN	In	Out	Change
11800	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Setiawangsa		3,322	1,737	1,585
07452	Perak	Lumut	Pangkor	1,762	2,460	-698
13231	Negeri Sembilan	Telok Kemang	Bagan Pinang	1,355	1,602	-247
10739	Selangor	Subang	Kota Damansara	739	433	306
13611	Melaka	Tangga Batu	Sungai Udang	693	759	-66
21249	Sarawak	Sibu	Nangka	592	673	-81
17112	Sabah	Sepanggar	Karambunai	507	1	506
08520	Pahang	Pekan	Pulau Manis	490	348	142
12400	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Bandar Tun Razak		391	481	-90
04926	Pulau Pinang	Tanjong	Padang Kota	341	357	-16
00810	Kedah	Pokok Sena	Bukit Pinang	334	250	84
16600	W.P Labuan	Labuan		331	356	-25
08212	Pahang	Indera Mahkota	Beserah	325	307	18
01426	Kedah	Merbok	Tanjong Dawai	291	267	24
19715	Sarawak	Kota Samarahan	Muara Tuang	281	242	39
15229	Johor	Kluang	Mahkota	236	530	-294
13334	Negeri Sembilan	Tampin	Gemas	229	171	58
17318	Sabah	Putatan	Petagas	193	278	-85
12000	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Bukit Bintang		179	311	-132
19612	Sarawak	Stampin	Kota Sentosa	177	201	-24
11500	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Batu		169	301	-132
04206	Pulau Pinang	Tasek Gelugor	Telok Ayer Tawar	168	275	-107
18544	Sabah	Batu Sapi	Karamunting	159	102	57
09406	Selangor	Hulu Selangor	Kuala Kubu Baharu	158	10	148
19160	Sabah	Kalabakan	Sebatik	147	70	77
03301	Terengganu	Besut	Kuala Besut	132	45	87
15942	Johor	Pasir Gudang	Johor Jaya	132	118	14
06016	Perak	Taiping	Kamunting	124	332	-208
10329	Selangor	Puchong	Seri Serdang	120	67	53
13022	Negeri Sembilan	Rasah	Rahang	113	123	-10
11253	Selangor	Kuala Langat	Morib	108	102	6
19509	Sarawak	Bandar Kuching	Padungan	103	21	82
15433	Johor	Mersing	Tenggaroh	84	134	-50

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.

Remember:

• These data do not show earlier movements, such as in 2007q3.


• There are also some really bizzare in-and-out movements by identical army/police voters. For example, Pulau Pinang > Tanjong > Padang Kota (Kod 04926), which showed 341 IN and 357 OUT, and Net -16. If you look closer at the names, 312 of the INs and 312 of the OUTs were identical army ICs, which we will explore in the next blog entry.
  


• These data also do not show the sequence of movements. Did the inward movement occur earlier, or did the outward movement occurred earlier?

In contrast, there was little movement by army/police voters for the GE2008 quarter of 2008q1, shown in the table below of top-10 DUNs for in-coming army/police voters:

Table B: 2008q1: Army/Police Voter Changes Type 12 (Moved IN), Type 32 (Moved OUT), and Net

				Moved	Moved	Net
Kod	Negeri	NamaParlimen	NamaDUN	In	Out	Change
11048	Selangor	Klang	Kota Alam Shah	113	24	89
04102	Pulau Pinang	Kepala Batas	Bertam	105	6	99
10840	Selangor	Shah Alam	Kota Anggerik	50	23	27
07452	Perak	Lumut	Pangkor	34	35	-1
01836	Kedah	Kulim-Bandar Baharu	Bandar Baharu	19	2	17
13822	Melaka	Kota Melaka	Bandar Hilir	17	4	13
19408	Sarawak	Petra Jaya	Satok	16	1	15
04719	Pulau Pinang	Nibong Tebal	Jawi	13	4	9
10945	Selangor	Kapar	Selat Klang	12	10	2
11700	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Segambut		11	21	-10

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
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Dead Voters Society Membership Reduced

Thousands of dead voters retired in each of the last 2 quarters. Further details on Army/Police movements.

The 3 tables below are related. (Table A = Table B + Table C. ) They summarize the types of quarterly changes in electoral rolls of 2007q4 and 2008q1:

1. All voters (army, police, civilians),
2. Army and police postal voter changes, and
3. Civilian changes, excluding army and police.

Our observations based on these 3 tables:

• New voters mostly civilians: In 2007q4, eg, new registrations were 55% of all changes. These are mostly civilian new registrations, since new registrations by Police/Army voters only accounted for 1.3% of all voter changes. Similar pattern occurred in 2008q1 -- there were very few new Army/Police voters.


• What the Army/Police voters excel at is moving around before the GE. While civilian voters who moved addresses accounted for 13.2% and 13.6% -- quite evenly distributed over the 2 quarters -- of 2007q4 and 2008q1 respectively, the Army/Police were particularly active before the GE. Army/Police voters who were repositioned accounted for 5.8% of all voter changes in 2007q4 just in time for GE2008, but only 0.4% during 2008q1 when it was too late for GE2008.


• Recent campaign to strike off dead voters? SPR deleted 16,651 and 18,548 dead voters, or 5.8% and a significant 14.1% of voter changes, respectively during 2007q4 and 2008q1. These are mostly civilian voters. Judging from the significant percentage of 14.1% of a relatively "more normal" quarter of 2008q1, it looks like this is a recent campaign and determination by the SPR to clean up the Dead Voters Society after persistent protests by election watch groups.

Data background: See earlier blog for a basic understanding about Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4. For overview, also see the last post Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008.

A. ALL VOTERS INCL. ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	75,484	57.5%	159,123	55.0%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	18,385	14.0%	54,920	19.0%
Subtotal - Addition		93,869	71.5%	214,043	74.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	18,385	14.0%	54,920	19.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	18,548	14.1%	16,651	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	2	0.0%	671	0.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	-	0.0%	992	0.3%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	1	0.0%	1,261	0.4%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	8	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	357	0.3%	5	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	1	0.0%	121	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	54	0.0%	63	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	7	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	-	0.0%	362	0.1%
Others	99	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		37,363	28.5%	75,060	26.0%
Total - ALL VOTERS		131,232	100.0%	289,103	100.0%
B. ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	814	0.6%	3,710	1.3%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	528	0.4%	16,743	5.8%
Subtotal - Addition		1,342	1.0%	20,453	7.1%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	578	0.4%	16,806	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	9	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	2	0.0%	668	0.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	0	0.0%	2	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	1	0.0%	1,261	0.4%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	355	0.3%	1	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	0	0.0%	8	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	7	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	0	0.0%	362	0.1%
Others	99	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		952	0.7%	19,119	6.6%
Total - ARMY/POLICE VOTERS		2,294	1.7%	39,572	13.7%
C. EXCLUDING ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	74,670	56.9%	155,413	53.8%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	17,857	13.6%	38,177	13.2%
Subtotal - Addition		92,527	70.5%	193,590	67.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	17,807	13.6%	38,114	13.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	18,539	14.1%	16,644	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	-	0.0%	990	0.3%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	8	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	2	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	1	0.0%	121	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	54	0.0%	55	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Others	99	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		36,411	27.7%	55,941	19.3%
Total - NON-ARMY/POLICE VOTERS		128,938	98.3%	249,531	86.3%

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
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Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4

Background: What happens to the electoral roll every quarter?

About 15-30 days after the end of a quarter, SPR will publish changes to the electoral roll to allow the public to review them at post offices, as well as online at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pamer_rang.htm. These 222 PDF files will be removed after about 2 weeks. SPR's Bahasa Malaysia Web site is more updated than the English site.

I've used some programs and scripts to extract the data into a database. You cannot use Adobe Reader's "Save As" command, because that output loses information about how the right columns are separated by spaces, tabs, etc.

The 2008 first quarter supplemental voter list is now available. I call this set of data "spr2008q1." I have also downloaded the PDF files for 2007 4th quarter, and call this set of data "spr2007q4."

I will post quick overviews of spr2008q1 (data from after the 12th General election), and some comparison with spr2007q4 (data from before the election).

What are the changes?

To begin with, we need to know what types of changes are reflected in the quarterly supplementary electoral rolls. Both ADDITIONs and DELETIONs are included, and some rows may offset the other rows. For example, one voter can move OUT from one locality, and move INTO another, and will appear twice in this list.

The ADDITIONs are reflected in the first 2 types below (types 11 nd 12). The rest are DELETIONs. The "changeType" code in the left column is MALVU's own numbering system, and is not created by the SPR. These changes were compiled from 2007q4 and 2008q1; there may be more types of changes that did not occur in these 2 quarters.

change Type	changeTypeText (SPR text)	changeTypeExplanation (Malvu explanation)
11	PENDAFTARAN BARU	Addition into list - New registration
12	PENDAFTARAN TUKAR ALAMAT	Addition into list - Change of address registration (move in)
31	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PENGENALAN DIRI TIDAK LENGKAP	Deletion from list - Identification not complete
32	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PEMILIH BERTUKAR ALAMAT	Deletion from list - Voter change address (move out)
33	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - KEMATIAN	Deletion from list - Death
34	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - HILANG KELAYAKAN SEBAGAI PENGUNDI POS	Deletion from list - Loss of eligibility as postal voter
35	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - DILUCUTKAN KEWARGANEGARAAN	Deletion from list - Loss of citizenship
36	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - BERSARA POLIS/ TENTERA	Deletion from list - Retired from police or army
37	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - MASUK TENTERA	Deletion from list - Enter into army
38	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - SILAP PENDATAAN	Deletion from list - Data mistakes
39	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - MASUK POLIS	Deletion from list - Enter into police
40	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PERGI KE LUAR NEGERI	Deletion from list - Gone out of country
41	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PULANG DARI LUAR NEGERI	Deletion from list - Return from out of country
42	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - TENTERA DI RAGUI	Deletion from list - Army in doubt (?)
99	OTHERS	Others

Alternative title for SPR2008q1: Rang Daftar Pemilih Tambahan Untuk Suku Pertama Tahun 2008 (1 JANUARI - 31 MAC). Short name for these set of data compiled by MALVU from SPR sources: "spr2008q1" and "spr2007q4."
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