Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions

In Batang Air, 237 voters were added and 188 deleted after GE12. Among them were 42 police postal voters, whose police IC numbers were reformatted, making them look like 42 deletions and additions. Most of the changes took place in DMs Ensawang, Jela, Kesit, and Lubok Antu.

Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 42+42 police IC number changes. The sizes of 194 additions and 145 deletions are probably acceptable at 2% over three quarters. Only field verification can tell more. Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification.


Table A shows that, in Batang Air (N29 under P203 Lubok Antu), between 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election):

• Overall, it looks like 237 voters were added and 188 deleted.
• In reality, 42 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 42 police personnel who remained, only having their IC numbering changed,
• These are examples of actual pairs of changed police IC in Batang Air: G0008388>G8388; R0108200>RF108200; R0104156>RF104156; R0060733>RF60733
• Another 1 police voter actually retired/moved out, while another 1 actually moved in
  
• Non-police voter additions totaled 194 during the 3 quarters, and deletions totaled 145,
• The net change was 49 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 8,006.

Table A: P203N29 Batang Air Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview

Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219	Deletions	Additions	Net changes
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees)	145	194	49
Police/military voter - change in IC number format	42	42	0
Police/military voter - real change in registration	1	1	0
Apparent changes in all voters	188	237	49
	20080205	20090219	Difference
Total voter count	7,957	8,006	49

Table B shows that:

• Excluding the police voters, 194 voters were added and 145 deleted, resulting in a net increase of 49 non-police voters.
• Most of the changes took place in the DMs of Ensawang, Jela, Kesit, Lubok Antu.

Table B: P203N29 Batang Air Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel

Does not exist in this electoral roll			20090200	20080205
Exists in this electoral roll			20080205	20090200
Meaning …			Deleted	Added
parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Count	Count
2032901	Batang Air	Sebangki	8	9
2032902	Batang Air	Lubok Antu	14	10
2032903	Batang Air	Sekarok	6	9
2032904	Batang Air	Kesit	12	12
2032905	Batang Air	Engkari	3	1
2032906	Batang Air	Delok	4	5
2032907	Batang Air	Kaong	7	5
2032908	Batang Air	Empit	6	8
2032909	Batang Air	Kumpang	3	1
2032910	Batang Air	Klampu	8	5
2032911	Batang Air	Sayat	9	0
2032912	Batang Air	Kutai	15	6
2032913	Batang Air	Mepi	9	17
2032914	Batang Air	Jela	9	22
2032915	Batang Air	Sempang	3	3
2032916	Batang Air	Bertik	1	5
2032917	Batang Air	Krangan Mong	2	6
2032918	Batang Air	Ensawang	11	21
2032919	Batang Air	Kachong	1	7
2032920	Batang Air	Patoh	2	14
2032921	Batang Air	Bilararap	3	5
2032922	Batang Air	Sepaya	1	8
2032923	Batang Air	Gugu	6	14
2032924	Batang Air	Nenyang	2	1
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters			145	194

Table C shows:

• The added and deleted grouped by age group,
• Not surprisingly, most of the additions were in the 21-29 voter group,
• Most of the deletions were in the 60-79 voter groups.
  

P203N29 Batang Air Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups - 12-DIGIT-IC

Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Deleted in	Added in				Deleted	Added
Group	From	To	20090219?	20090219?	Net	Change %		% of total	% of total
21-29	1979	1987	4	131	127	3175.0%		2.8%	67.5%
30-39	1969	1978	12	32	20	166.7%		8.3%	16.5%
40-49	1959	1968	12	23	11	91.7%		8.3%	11.9%
50-59	1949	1958	13	6	(7)	-53.8%		9.0%	3.1%
60-69	1939	1948	31	1	(30)	-96.8%		21.4%	0.5%
70-79	1929	1938	42	1	(41)	-97.6%		29.0%	0.5%
80-89	1919	1928	25	-	(25)	-100.0%		17.2%	0.0%
90-99	1909	1918	4	-	(4)	-100.0%		2.8%	0.0%
100+	1884	1908	2	-	(2)	-100.0%		1.4%	0.0%
Total			145	194	49	33.8%		100.0%	100.0%

Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:

• 1001 Police IC Changes = 1001 Potential Confusions
• Were 900+ Voters Deleted and Replaced in Permatang Pauh?
• Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4
• Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions
• Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters
  
• Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions
  

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters

In Bukit Selambau, 553 voter ICs were added and 390 voter ICs were deleted after GE12. The most changes took place in a few modern-sounding housing areas. As expected, the largest additions are in the 21-29 age group, and largest deletions in the 71-79 age group.

Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 10 police IC number changes. The size of the the roughly 390-550 regular voter changes over the first 3 quarters of 2008 look normal. Only field verification can tell more. Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification.

What do "Additions" and "Deletions" mean? We have a table here that list the categories under each: Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4


Table A shows that, in Bukit Selambau (N25 under P014 Merbok), between 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election):

• Overall, it looks like 553 voters were added and 390 deleted.
• In reality, 10 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 10 police personnel who remained, only having their IC numbering changed,
• These are examples of actual pairs of changed police IC in Bukit Selambau: R0075654>RF75654; RT007366>RFT7366; R0107927>RF107927; R0102805>RF102805
• Another 2 police voters actually retired or moved out, and were really deleted,
  
• Non-police voter additions totaled 543 during the 3 quarters, and deletions totaled 378,
• The net change was 163 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 35,140.
  

Table A: P014N25 Batu Selambau Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview

Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219	Deletions	Additions	Net changes
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees)	378	543	165
Police/military voter - change in IC number format	10	10	0
Police/military voter - real change in registration	2	0	-2
Apparent changes in all voters	390	553	163
	20080205	20090219	Difference
Total voter count	34,977	35,140	163

Table B shows:

• How many additions and deletions are grouped under each DM (Daerah Mengundi, voting districts),
• The most changes took place in the DMs of Taman Bandar Baru, Taman Ria Jaya, and Taman Ria Selatan.
• Taman Bandar Baru is where we have found a cluster of voters with house numbers, but not street names.
  
• We were worried that such non-specific addresses in what looks like modern housing estate makes it easier to hide any phantom voters. See discussion at No Street Names Despite Modern Housing in Bukit Selambau.
  

Table B: P014N25 Batu Selambau Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel

Does not exist in this electoral roll			20090200	20080205
Exists in this electoral roll			20080205	20090200
Meaning …			Deleted	Added
parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Count	Count
0142501	Bukit Selambau	Kuala Sin	9	5
0142502	Bukit Selambau	Kampung Sungkap	6	2
0142503	Bukit Selambau	Bukit Lembu	25	1
0142504	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	36	89
0142505	Bukit Selambau	Sungai Lalang	21	14
0142506	Bukit Selambau	Taman Desa Aman	20	32
0142507	Bukit Selambau	Bandar Laguna Merbok	4	36
0142508	Bukit Selambau	Tasek Apong	15	38
0142509	Bukit Selambau	Air Menideh	24	14
0142510	Bukit Selambau	Jalan Badlishah	20	1
0142511	Bukit Selambau	Taman Peruda	17	29
0142512	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Utara	14	43
0142513	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	30	86
0142514	Bukit Selambau	United Petani	18	6
0142515	Bukit Selambau	Petani Para	9	1
0142516	Bukit Selambau	Bukit Rusa	8	3
0142517	Bukit Selambau	Pekan Bukit Selambau	34	28
0142518	Bukit Selambau	Kampung Pokok Machang	8	5
0142519	Bukit Selambau	Batu Belachan	13	0
0142520	Bukit Selambau	Titi Panjang	17	13
0142521	Bukit Selambau	Ambangan Height	2	48
0142522	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Selatan	28	49
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters			378	543

Table C shows that:

• Unsurprisingly, the most deletion took place in the 70-79 age group,
• while the most additions took place in the 21-29 age group
  

Table C: P014N25 Bukit Selambau Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups - 12-DIGIT-IC

Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Deleted in	Added in				Deleted	Added
Group	From	To	20090219?	20090219?	Net	Change %		% of total	% of total
21-29	1979	1987	21	310	289	1376.2%		5.6%	57.1%
30-39	1969	1978	28	127	99	353.6%		7.4%	23.4%
40-49	1959	1968	63	57	(6)	-9.5%		16.7%	10.5%
50-59	1949	1958	59	37	(22)	-37.3%		15.6%	6.8%
60-69	1939	1948	74	10	(64)	-86.5%		19.6%	1.8%
70-79	1929	1938	79	2	(77)	-97.5%		20.9%	0.4%
80-89	1919	1928	40	-	(40)	-100.0%		10.6%	0.0%
90-99	1909	1918	10	-	(10)	-100.0%		2.6%	0.0%
100+	1884	1908	4	-	(4)	-100.0%		1.1%	0.0%
Total			378	543	165	43.7%		100.0%	100.0%

Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:

• 1001 Police IC Changes = 1001 Potential Confusions
• Were 900+ Voters Deleted and Replaced in Permatang Pauh?
• Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4
• Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions
• Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters
  
• Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions
  

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions

In Bukit Gantang, 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 voter ICs were deleted after GE12. But 128 of these additions and deletions are actually the same police voters having their IC number format changed. The most changes took place in Changkat Jering DUN. The largest additions are in the 21-29 age group, and largest deletions in the 71-79 age group.

Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 128 police IC number changes. As for the roughly 900 regular voter additions and deletions over the first 3 quarters of 2008, the size of changes do not look abnormal. Only field verification can tell more.

Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification. They can be broken down by:

• DUN, DM, TM, streams, or localities
• Age
• postal vs non-postal voters
• postal voters who have their ICs changed, or real changes (move-ins and move-outs).

Where do these data come from?

• We compare 2 electoral rolls, data as of 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election),
• We trawled the data for voter IC which exist in the older GE12 roll, but do not exist in the newer by-election rolls. These are the "deleted" voters,
• We trawled for the voter IC which exist in the newer by-election rolls, but do not exist in the the older GE12 roll. These are the "added" voters,

Table A shows that, in Bukit Gantang (P029):

• Overall, it looks like 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 deleted.
• In reality, 128 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 128 police personnel who remained in Bukit Gantang, only having their IC numbering changed,
  
• Examples of actual pairs of changed police IC: RT008120>RFT8120; RT009431>RFT9431; R0091282>RF91282; R0101133>RF101133
• Non-police voter additions (new registrations, moved in) totaled 920 during the 3 quarters, and deletions (moved out, death, other reasons) totaled 829,
• The net change was 91 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 55,562.

Table A: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview

Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219	Deletions	Additions	Net changes
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees)	829	920	91
Police/military voter - change in IC number format	128	128	0
Police/military voter - real change in registration	0	0	0
Apparent changes in all voters	957	1,048	91
	20080205	20090219	Difference
Total voter count	55,471	55,562	91

Table B shows:

• How voter additions and deletions are grouped into locations, by DM and DUN,
• This table contains only voters with 12-digit ICs (include postal voters who are absentee, non-police, non-military, voters).
  
• Changkat Jering has the largest number of changes, followed by Kuala Sapetang.
• In Changkat Jering, the 3 DMs with the most changes are Pengkalan Aor, Jalan Simpang, and Larut Tin.
  

Table B: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel

Does not exist in this electoral roll			20090200	20080205
Exists in this electoral roll			20080205	20090200
Meaning …			Deleted	Added
parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Count	Count
0591301	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	22	63
0591302	Kuala Sapetang	Ayer Puteh	12	12
0591303	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	21	68
0591304	Kuala Sapetang	Jebong	39	22
0591305	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	38	44
0591306	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Menteri	23	23
0591307	Kuala Sapetang	Matang Gelugor	6	4
0591308	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Limau	6	6
0591309	Kuala Sapetang	Jalan Mangala	27	22
0591310	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Jaha	5	4
0591311	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Mati	10	10
0591312	Kuala Sapetang	Bendang Siam	21	9
0591313	Kuala Sapetang	Changkat Ibol	33	32
Subtotal	Kuala Sapetang		263	319
0591401	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	47	80
0591402	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	25	48
0591403	Changkat Jering	Simpang Baru	20	23
0591404	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	34	81
0591405	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	49	66
0591406	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	38	77
0591407	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	39	58
0591408	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	31	38
0591409	Changkat Jering	Jelutong	16	15
0591410	Changkat Jering	Bukit Gantang	32	11
0591411	Changkat Jering	Kampong Cheh	26	5
Subtotal	Changkat Jering		357	502
0591501	Trong	Kuala Trong	11	10
0591502	Trong	Pasir Hitam Trong	7	0
0591503	Trong	Kampong Tebok Trong	6	2
0591504	Trong	Trong	18	5
0591505	Trong	Trong Barat	13	8
0591506	Trong	Bukit Gantang Selatan	18	4
0591507	Trong	Ayer Terjun	15	3
0591508	Trong	Temelok	15	5
0591509	Trong	Sungai Che Rahmat	5	2
0591510	Trong	Permatang Raja	21	20
0591511	Trong	Sungai Tinggi	28	24
0591512	Trong	Padang Gajah	30	6
0591513	Trong	Batu Hampar	16	9
0591514	Trong	Sungai Rotan	6	1
Subtotal	Trong		209	99
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters			829	920

Table C shows that:

• Of the 829 deletion, the most deletions occur in the age groups of 50-89,
• Of the 920 addition, nearly 600 came from the 21-29 age group.
• This table includes only the 12-digit-IC (non-police) voters.
  

Table C: P059 Bukit Gantang Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups

Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Deleted in	Added in				Deleted	Added
Group	From	To	20090219?	20090219?	Net	Change %		% of total	% of total
21-29	1979	1987	17	596	579	3405.9%		2.1%	64.8%
30-39	1969	1978	69	180	111	160.9%		8.3%	19.6%
40-49	1959	1968	72	90	18	25.0%		8.7%	9.8%
50-59	1949	1958	124	34	(90)	-72.6%		15.0%	3.7%
60-69	1939	1948	162	16	(146)	-90.1%		19.5%	1.7%
70-79	1929	1938	200	3	(197)	-98.5%		24.1%	0.3%
80-89	1919	1928	127	1	(126)	-99.2%		15.3%	0.1%
90-99	1909	1918	27	-	(27)	-100.0%		3.3%	0.0%
100+	1884	1908	31	-	(31)	-100.0%		3.7%	0.0%
Total			829	920	91	11.0%		100.0%	100.0%

Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:

• 1001 Police IC Changes = 1001 Potential Confusions
• Were 900+ Voters Deleted and Replaced in Permatang Pauh?
• Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4
• Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions
• Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters
  
• Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions
  
  

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.