SPR sinks further into opacity and sluggishness

SPR transparency has deteriorated notably since mid 2008. Further, SPR slowed down quarterly gazetting of electoral rolls to 5 months.

These are the opacity, sluggishness, and oddities we have observed in SPR performance:

1. SPR no longer cites the specific gazette date for the electoral rolls to be used in the April 7 by-elections.

Regarding Bukit Selambau (P014N25) and Bukit Gantang (P059) by-elections, SPR informed Bernama (but without written statement on SPR's own Website) only in general quarterly. The SPR chairman said that "the electoral roll to be used was the Master Electoral Roll 2007 which had been merged with the supplementary electoral rolls for the first, second and third quarters of 2008." (See 3-in-1 By-Elections on April 7?)

When were these rolls officially gazetted? SPR didn't say.

We are left to dig and assume that, for the electoral roll ending third quarter (2008 Sep 30), the gazette date must be the latest gazette date 2009 February 19, displayed in the header on the voter look-up page at http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/daftarbi.aspx (this is an already-gazetted, nationwide, roll for voters to look up on an individual basis). However, this is only an assumption, because SPR has previously used different by-election rolls than the latest-gazetted, nationwide, roll.

SPR's statement on Batang Ai to Bernama was even more opaque, failing to cite any data date or quarterly periods for the electoral roll to be used. See http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v3/bm/news.php?id=393934


2. SPR has failed to publicize official verification and gazetting processes since mid-2008:

1. the quarterly display and verification of supplementary rolls, and
   
2. the eventual gazetting of the quarterly changes to add to the nationwide electoral roll.

By law, quarterly (supplementary) changes to voter rolls must be displayed for the public to check before being gazetted.

But SPR seems to have kept an extremely low profile on these events in the second half of 2008, failing to make public statement about the displays or gazette. There has been no official SPR press statement on the SPR Web site or through the government mouth piece Bernama.

Why this secrecy in second half of 2008? Did SPR fear the inevitable confusion and protest by Permatang Pauh (P044) and Kuala Terengganu (P036) voters, due to the variances between those 2 by-election rolls (respectively dated 2008 July 31 and 2008 Dec 5) from the nearest nationwide gazetted rolls (respectively dated 2008 Jul 19 and 2008 Nov 28)? See "What's so complicated ..." and "surprises and guesses."

We are left to grasp at haphazard clues such as these:

• In December 2008 when we checked SPR's nationwide voter lookup page, the header revealed SPR has a gazetted version from 2008 November 28 (it has since been updated to the latest 2009 Feb 19). See our earlier post about "surprises and guesses."
  
• However, SPR statement to Bernama indicated it had also gazetted another by-election roll a few days later on 2008 Dec 5 for the KT by-election.
  
• We are again left to assume, that the KT roll was based on 2008 2nd quarter changes, meaning the changes were gazetted nearly 5 months after the close of the second quarter on 2008 Jun 30.

So far we learn a few things:

• a by-election roll may be gazetted (as in KT P036) or not gazetted (as in PP P044),
• a different by-election roll can be prepared only a few days after a nationwide roll has already been gazetted (especially in KT)
  
• A quarterly roll is recently being gazetted about 5 months after the quarter closes.
  

What did and did not the SPR publicize?

• SPR only publicized the SMS/Website by-election voter look-up on an individual basis. This is a very narrow announcement meant only for by-election voters, and only after gazette. An example of such an announcement is http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/news_lite.php?id=392795.
  
• In contrast, before mid-2008, SPR had faithfully announced that quarterly supplementary rolls for nationwide changes were available for verification at post offices and on the Web before they were gazetted. An example of such a broad announcement was made in January 2008 regarding 2007Q4 changes: http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=307312
• The by-election voter look-up page (post-gazette? non-gazette?) for Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang (http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/semakp59n25/prayakecil.aspx) does not display a gazette date. Why?
  
• Only the nationwide (post-gazette) roll for voter to look up (http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/daftarbi.aspx) did display a gazette date of 2009 Feb 19.
  

Questions, phrased differently:

• Why weren't the pre-gazette verification of the 3rd and 4th quarterly changes of 2008 publicized in the media, newspapers, and post offices?
• Why wasn't there any media notice or official press statement about the November 28, 2008 (presumably 2008 second quarter changes) gazetted roll just before KT by-election, and the recently gazetted roll of Feb 19, 2009 (presumably 2008 third quarter changes)?

• If the nationwide roll is identified as gazetted on 2009 Feb 19, but the by-elections rolls are not identified as gazetted, does that mean there have been changes to the by-election rolls of Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang rolls compared to the gazetted nationwide rolls?
  

3. SPR has sharlply slowed down its quarterly voter verification and gazettes.

While it took only 36 days to gazette the December 2007 changes by 2008 Feb 5 for the 2008 March 8 GE12, verification and gazettes since mid-2008 have been sluggish and non-transparent, and took nearly 5 months. (Note the 2007 fourth quarter roll had included a rush of enthusiastic voter registrations and massive postal movements, anticipating GE12.)

• What about 2008's 4th quarter? Why are we still using 2008 third-quarter roll changes?
• The gazetting process seems to have stretched out to about 5 months by now, compared to about 1 month for early 2008.

• Register for 6 months before you can vote: A voter in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau who registered at the beginning of October 2008, eg, will not be able to vote in the by-elections, even more than 6 months after registration (from 2008 Oct 1 to 2009 Apr 7).
  

Table A shows that the pace of voter roll verification and gazette has slowed down to about 5 months.

Table A: Gazetting Process Slowing to 5 Months

Quarterly voter changes	2007Q4	2008Q1	2008Q2	2008Q3	2008Q4
Quarter closing	2007Dec31	2008Mar31	2008Jun30	2008Sep30	2008Dec31
Display on Web	Yes	Yes	No	No	No
Gazette date	2008Feb5	2008Jun16	2008Nov28	2009Feb19	???
Days from quarter closing	36	107	151	142	???

4. Timing of by-election is dubious :

• KT's by-election had to wait for 51 days (out of the maximum 60 days allowed by law) because of the northeast monsoon rain in December, but Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang had to wait for 57 days for what?
• Why does by-election on a Tuesday, not on weekends, or even a Monday or Friday?
  
• Does Apr 4, Saturday, or 54 days make any difference in "security" except that minus 9 days means smack in the middle of UMNO party election?
  
• Why does nomination day on March 29 have to wait until just after UMNO's party election on March 28?

• Why create the longest-ever wait for by-election of 57 days, nearly the longest allowable by law, but the shortest allowable campaigning period of 9 days? Why not more campaigning days to accomodate the three differently-located by-elections?
  
• Why 3 by-elections on the same day, that will stretch all the media, opposition political parties, NGOs, volunteers, except the well-financed governing coalition which has never been ashamed or penalized for abusing government machinery and funds?

Also see:

• TheMalaysianInsider.com: EC fixes April 7 by-elections amid mixed reactions
• MalaysiaKini.com: Pakatan cries foul over polls date (subscription)
  
• Lim Kit Siang: Bukit Gantang/Selambau by-elections on April 7 - another example of craven subservience of Election Commission to serve Umno interests

More opacity:

• The online display of PDF copies of quarterly electoral changes on SPR Website has been discontinued since 2008Q2. see SPR becoming less transparent. Why?
  
• The official CD containing the roll only have a hand-writted "disahkan" (authenticated/confirmed) "18/2/2009," without details inside the CD.

• SPR seems to stop preparing any official announcement and stopped posting them on its website. As of 2009 March 8, we can only find press releases from 2008. Newspaper cutting is up to 2007. The latest statements on Bukit Selambau, Bukit Gantang, Batang Ai, are not carried on its website. It only contains an announcement to check voter roll for Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang, but not Batang Ali.
• Apparently the SPR is more interested in voters using SMS to check their status at RM0.35 extra charges per enquiry.
• Also see: http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pagemulabi.htm and http://www.spr.gov.my/index/news.htm
  

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Permatang Pauh Official Electoral Roll - An Overview

We summarize the official electoral roll for Permatang Pauh P044.

How was this electoral roll built? We believe the SPR has constructed this official by-election voters' roll (said to be dated 2008 July 31) from these building blocks:

• The electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Jun 19, based on 2008 March 31 (2008Q1) data
• Delete dead voters, moved-out, and other deletion-type, voters reported as of 2008 Jun 30 (2008Q2), ungazetted voters roll
• Delete further any voters aged 100-year-old and older.

Step 3 raises the question whether proper procedures have been followed to verify the deletion, or voters 100 or more years old have simply been deleted.

What Table A below tells us:

• Permatang Pauh contains 3 state assembly seats (DUNs)
• It contains 28 voting districts (DM or Daerah Mengundi),
  
• But it contains only 25 polling or voting stations (TM, or Tempat Mengundi), because 3 paris of DMs shared TMs.
• There is a total of 420 localities or street area, or police stations (or army camps).
• There are 58,459 voters, made up of 57,969 non-postal voters and 490 postal voters.
  

Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh - An Overview

The Number of …
DUN or State Assembly Seats	3
DM or Voting Districts	28
TM or Voting/Polling Station	25
Lokaliti or Localities	420
Non-postal voters	57,969
Postal voters	490
Total Voters	58,459

What Table B below tells us:

• This is a by-election at the parliamentary level, and not DUN level, but voters are still organized under 3 DUNs.
  
• Seberang Jaya is the largest DUN, with 39% of the voters,
• Penanti is the smallest DUN, only 2/3 the size of SJ.
• There are 28 voting districts (DM), excluding postal voters,
• There are 110 voting streams (Saluran), excluding postal voters.

Table B: P044 Permatang Pauh - Voters Broken Down by DUN

Parl/DUN code	NamaDUN State Seat Name	Voters	Percentage	DM Voting Districts	Saluran Voting Streams
044/10	Seberang Jaya	22,790	39.0%	9	39
044/11	Permatang Pasir	20,289	34.7%	9	39
044/12	Penanti	15,380	26.3%	10	32
P044	Total	58,459	100.0%	28	110

Table C below shows:

• The names for 28 voting district (DM),
  
• The name for 25 voting station (TM), because those DMs in red shared the same TMs,
  
• The number of voters, ranging from 509 to 3,100 voters per DM.
• The weight of voters of each voting district (DM), ranging from 0.9% to 5.3% of total,
  

• The number of voting stream (Saluran) per DM, from 1 to mostly 5.
• Note that TM "Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri" contains 10 voting streams because it is shared by two DMs (5TM+5TM).
  
• There are two other TMs with 8 and 7 voting streams for similar reason.

• We can predict that old voters in such large TMs may be required to climb upstairs to vote. The three largest TMs are shared by two DMs each. Hopefully, there will be 10 class rooms on the ground floor to accommodate all the voting streams.
  
• If there are not enough classrooms on the ground floor, voters from the first DM may be assigned to voting streams on ground floor, while voters from the second DM may be assigned upstairs.
  
• In this case, even though the electoral roll attempts to arrange older voters (lower IC #) in the first few voting streams (Saluran), they are queued in front only on the upper floors.
  
• The solution is for SPR to split the voting center vertically (left side for one DM and right side for the others), instead of horizontally.
  

• You can also click under the "TM / Voting Station" for map links to each voting station (TM).
  

Table C: P044 Permatang Pauh Non-Postal Voters Broken Down by Voting District (28 NamaDM)

Parl/ DUN/ DM	Nama DUN / State Assembly Seat	NamaDM / Voting District	TM / Voting Station (Click link for map)	Voters	Per cent	Sa lu ran	Sha red TM?
044/10/01	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Sembilang	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya	2,933	5.1%	5
044/10/02	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya II	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri	2,966	5.1%	5	Shared
044/10/03	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Pertama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Tok Kandu	1,607	2.8%	3
044/10/04	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Belah Dua	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Pauh Jaya Taman Pauh	2,168	3.7%	4
044/10/05	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya I	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya Persiaran Siakap	3,100	5.3%	5
044/10/06	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Bahru	Sekolah Kebangsaan Jalan Baharu	2,274	3.9%	4
044/10/07	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Permatang Rawa	2,223	3.8%	4
044/10/08	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Tuna	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri	2,926	5.0%	5	Shared
044/10/09	Seberang Jaya	Taman Tun Hussein Onn	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Tun Hussien Onn	2,127	3.7%	4
044/10	Subtotal			22,324	38.5%	39
044/11/01	Permatang Pasir	Sama Gagah	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Sama Gagah	2,774	4.8%	5
044/11/02	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Ara	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Pasir	2,980	5.1%	5
044/11/03	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Pauh	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Pauh	1,759	3.0%	4
044/11/04	Permatang Pasir	Bukit Indra Muda	Sekolah Kebangsaan Bukit Indera Muda	2,750	4.7%	5
044/11/05	Permatang Pasir	Kampong Pelet	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Kubang Semang Jalan Kepala Batas	1,750	3.0%	4
044/11/06	Permatang Pasir	Kubang Semang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti	1,424	2.5%	3	Shared
044/11/07	Permatang Pasir	Tanah Liat Mukim 8	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti	2,175	3.8%	4	Shared
044/11/08	Permatang Pasir	Kampong Cross Street 2	Sekolah Rendah Islam Al Masriyah Jalan Abdul Kadir	2,179	3.8%	4
044/11/09	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Tengah	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Lay Keow Permatang Pauh	2,497	4.3%	5
044/11	Subtotal			20,288	35.0%	39
044/12/01	Penanti	Guar Perahu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	1,907	3.3%	4
044/12/02	Penanti	Kuala Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	2,727	4.7%	5
044/12/03	Penanti	Telok Wang	Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda	599	1.0%	1
044/12/04	Penanti	Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	1,901	3.3%	4
044/12/05	Penanti	Sungai Lembu	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu	509	0.9%	1
044/12/06	Penanti	Penanti	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	1,061	1.8%	3
044/12/07	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Penanti	1,400	2.4%	3
044/12/08	Penanti	Sungai Semambu	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	1,872	3.2%	4	Shared
044/12/09	Penanti	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	1,920	3.3%	4	Shared
044/12/10	Penanti	Berapit Road	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit	1,461	2.5%	3
	Subtotal			15,357	26.5%	32
P044	Total			57,969	100.0%	110

Note:

• We are not sure about the map locations for "Sekolah Rendah Islam Al Masriyah Jalan Abdul Kadir" (try tel: 04 538 5126, 04 521 5126), "Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda," and "Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu" (A.K.A. SJK(C) Kg. Sg. Lembu, try tel: 04 521 1795).
• Please inform us about any map location mistakes.
• You can look up this PDF file for Penang schools' telephone numbers: http://www.moe.gov.my/emis/emis2/emisportal2/doc/fckeditor/File/senarai_sek_08/rendah/SekRen08_PP.pdf

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

P044 By-Election: 2008Q1 Roll Gazetted Jun 19, With Further Deletions

For the Permatang Pauh by-election, SPR is using 2008Q1 supplemental voters roll gazetted on June 19, appended to 20080205-gazetted data used in the 12th GE, but further deleting dead and move-out voters up to 2008Q2 or 2008 Jul 31

In its press release partially quoted below, SPR is describing a set of electoral roll that is close to our pro-forma electoral roll, except SPR further deletes dead voters and moved-out voters updated to either 2008Q2 or 2008 Jul 31. The further deletion of dead voters and move-outs, based on the ungazetted changes in 2008Q2, explains why the total number of 58,459 voters is lower than our pro-forma estimate of 58,761.

It sounds like new voters registered in April, May, June will not be able to vote. But dead voters and move-outs updates in the same months of April, May, June, will be deleted from the 2008-Jun-19-gazetted data (data as of 2008Q1).

There are several dates involved in any one roll:

(a) date of data: 2008 Mar 31 (incoporating 2008Q1 supplemental roll)
(b) date of gazette: 2008 Jun 19
(c) date of partial additional changes: 2008 Jul 31 (to delete further dead voters and move-outs, based on ungazetted changes in 2008Q2 up to June 30, perhaps even up to July 31).

If the above understanding is correct, then SPR is being conservative. Perhaps even over-conservative to the extent of using 2008Q1 data, but further deleting ungazetted dead voters and move-outs from 2008Q2. If this guess is correct, we have less to worry about recently-imported phantoms.

Voters verification specifically for the P044 by-election http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/permatangpauh/prayakecil.aspx

Quoted from SPR statement at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/Pengumuman/kenyataan_akhbar.htm

4.1 Tarikh Writ dikeluarkan : 7 OGOS 2008

4.2 Tarikh Notis dikeluarkan : 8 OGOS 2008

4.3 Tarikh Penamaan Calon : 16 OGOS 2008

4.4 Tarikh Pengundian : 26 OGOS 2008
(Jika ada pertandingan)

5. Bagi tujuan pilihan raya kecil ini, menurut Peraturan 9 Peraturan-Peraturan Pilihan Raya (Pendaftaran Pemilih) 2002, Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya menentukan bahawa Daftar Pemilih Induk 2007 yang diwartakan pada 5 Februari 2008 dan Daftar Pemilih Tambahan Suku Tahun Pertama tahun 2008 yang diwartakan pada 19 Jun 2008 dan dikemaskinikan sehingga 31 Julai 2008, hendaklah digunakan dalam pilihan raya kecil P.44 Permatang Pauh ini. Seramai 58,459 pemilih yang terdiri daripada 57,969 pemilih biasa dan 490 pemilih pos adalah layak untuk mengundi dalam pilihan raya kecil bagi P.44 Permatang Pauh ini.
Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Pro Forma Electoral Roll for P044 for 2008Q1

"Pro Forma," or projected, electoral roll will speed planning and by-election monitoring at P044, Permatang Pauh

What we don't have (as of 5/8/08), don't know, or will find out too late:

• We don't yet know which electoral roll SPR will use for the P044 by-election. Will it be the roll gazetted on 2008 Jun 19 that incorporated 2008Q1 voter changes, or some version that incorporates 2008Q2 changes, to be gazetted in late August?
• We don't have the finalized version of the 2008 Jun 19 electoral roll,
• We don't have the 2008Q2 electoral changes (supplementary roll).

However, we do have the 20080205-gazetted full roll and the 2008Q1 supplemental roll, and I can append the latter to the former, to create a "pro forma" version of the 2008 Jun 19 electoral roll, specifically for P044 Permatang Pauh.

Such a "pro forma" electoral roll for P044 is useful, because:

• The campaign period will be very short,
  
• We don't have to wait for SPR to distribute the roll in CD and MS Access file,
• We don't have to wait to process the SPR's MS Access file,
• We can immediately start to list the Daerah Mengundi, Tempat Mengundi, and other details, to work with election monitoring volunteers
  

However, such a "pro forma" roll has its drawbacks:

• It may contain minor errors in voter names,
• It may not reflect additions or changes in Tempat Mengundi and the schools used, compared to the recent 2008 Mar 2, 12th General Election.
• While we project for the roll to include 2008Q1 changes, the SPR may go further and incorporate 2008Q2 voter changes (which we do not have).
  

But making use of our "pro forma" electoral roll, below we compare changes in voters, localities, postal voters, etc, between the 11th GE (2004) and the quarter of 2008Q1:

Table A: P044 - Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, Pulau Pinang

	2004/03/02	2008/02/05	2008Q1	20080619
	11th GE	12th GE	voter changes	pro forma
DUN, state assembly seats	3	3	3	3
DM, voting districts	25	28	28	28
TM, voting stations		25		25
Lokaliti, localities	403	419	218	420
Postal voters	91	492	1	491
All voters	54,041	58,449	658	58,761
Change voter		4,408		312
Change %		8.2%		0.5%
2008Q1 Changes in Supplementary Roll for P044
Addition into list - New registration			373
Addition into list - Change of address registration (move in)			112
Deletion from list - Voter change address (move out)			-84
Deletion from list - Death			-89
Total count of voters			658
Net changes in voters			312

Comments on Table A

• Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, P044, of Pulau Pinang has 3 DUNS (state assembly seats), a number that has not changed since 2004, namely
  
  • 044/10 Seberang Jaya
  • 044/11 Permatang Pasir
  • 044/12 Penanti
• Voting districts (Daerah Mengundi), however, has apparently increased from 25 in 2004 to 28 now. We will list the DM in a future post.
• We only have data on the Polling Stations (Tempat Mengundi) for 2008/02/05 data, and there are 25 TMs, meaning 3 of the 28 DMs are sharing TM with other DMs.

Localities

• Localities are streets, army camps, or postal locations. The number of localities increased from 403 in 2004 (11th GE) to 419 in 2008/02/05 (12th GE). There has been one additional localities added in 2008Q1.
• The additional locality is 044/10/01/059 Seberang Jaya/Jalan Sembilang/Lorong Sembilang 33

Postal Voters

• There were only 91 postal voters in 2004 (11th GE).
  
• The number of voters jumped to 492 in the 2008 roll for the 12th GE, with the inlcusion of 404 postal voters from the newly added locality of "Balai Polis Bukit Mertajam."
  
• In 2008Q1, one police officer moved out of Balai Polis BM and P044, reducing the postal voter to 491.

Total voters

• The total number of voters in 11th GE was 54,041.
• Voters increased by 8% to 58,449 by 20080205 for the 12th GE .
• The 2008Q1 supplemental electoral roll included 658 voter changes, comprising 373 new voters (addition), 112 voters moving in (addition), -84 voters moving out (deletion), and -89 deletion due to death.
  
• Net changes involved 312 more voters in 2008Q1.
• The ending number of voters by 2008Q1 totalled 58,761 voters.

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

SPR Becoming Less Transparent

SPR has stopped publishing supplementary electoral roll (quarterly changes) for 2008Q2 in PDF format on its Web site. This will block NGOs from checking large army and police movements, and SPR effectiveness in deleting dead voters

Earlier in 2007Q4 and 2008Q1, SPR had published the supplementary electoral rolls (the quarterly changes of voter addition, deletion, etc) in PDF formats. These PDF files would be put online at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pamer_rang.htm a few weeks after the end of the quarters.

For whatever reason, however, they are no longer published online when the time comes, such as now. Now, you can only check voter changes one by one at http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/rang/rang.aspx or at one of the post offices listed here: http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pameran.html, manually using hard copies.

Both of these approaches are laborious and will not yield overall picture of changes.

This is an unfortunate change towards non-transparency, because NGOs and Opposition parties can no longer do these:

• Tally and check the overall deletion of dead voters during the quarter,
• Check for large army and police movements within the quarter,
• Append quarterly changes to the last gazetted roll to project a "pro-forma" latest roll

Note: SPR Web site had earlier de-linked the Web page that lists post offices where you can manually verify voter changes. But the link is back on now. It's at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pameran.html.

Background:

• What happens to the electoral roll every quarter?
• Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008
• Dead Voters Society Membership Reduced
• Army/Police Movements - Where To and From

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

An intro to SPR's electoral roll data table

How is SPR's electoral roll organized?

SPR distributes the electoral roll that changes roughly every quarter for a total charge of about RM44,000 (0.4 sen per voter name). The data can be obtained in these formats: Hard copy, PDF softcopy, or MS Access database files.

The PDF and hard copies are arranged in a printer-friendly "report" - essentially smartly-designed output from the database. The data in the PDF and hard copy format are split into parliamentary constituencies, then state assembly seats (DUN), then voting districts (Daerah Mengundi, DM). Within each DM the voters (up to a few thousand) are assigned their temporary NoSiri, from the lowest to the highest IC number within that DM.

PDF file structure
Parliamentary seat
	DUN seat
		DM or Daerah Mengundi
			Voters by NoSiri (new IC)

The MS Access formatted data file is a large flat table of data, comprising 17 columns of data, and as many rows as there are voters. Instead of one big file of 10.9 million voters, the data are usually split into individual files for each state or federal territory. This blog entry discusses the outline of this flat table.

This is a screenshot of the 17-column flat data table. This view was created in a program called phpMyAdmin, but any other database interface programs will have a similar outline.











SPR's electoral roll data gazetted for 2008 Feb 5 contains 10,922,139 rows or records, or number of voters. Presented in the MS Access database format, it has 17 fields (columns) of information per voter. The 17 fields are shown below, with MALVU's explanation.

Table: SPR Electoral Rolls Contains 17 Columns of Voter Data

FIELD NAME	DATA TYPE	MALVU EXPLANATION
NoSiri	Number Long Integer	Serial no. for voter within DM, for this database report
IC	Text 12	National identification number
ICLama	Text 12	old IC
Nama	Text 50	Voter name
NamaSpouse	Text 50	Spouse name, mostly blank
ICSpouse	Text 50	Spouse IC, mostly blank
NoRumah	Text 50	House number, within localiti
Jantina	Text 50	Gender, L for male or P for female
Kodlokaliti	Text 50	10-digit locality code: PPPSSDDLLL PPP for parliamentary code, eg, 049 SS for state assembly code, or DUN code, eg, 14 DD for polling district code, or DM code, eg, 05 LLL for locality code, eg, 007
NamaLokaliti	Text 50	Name of locality
NamaParlimen	Text 50	Name of parliamentary constituency
NamaDM	Text 50	Name of polling district (Daerah Mengundi)
NamaDUN	Text 50	Name of state assembly seat (Dewan Undangan Negeri)
Negeri	Text 50	Name of state
Tahunlahir	Text 4	Year of Birth
TM	Text 250	Polling center (Tempat Mengundi), usually a school address
Saluran	Number Decimal	Polling stream, usually a room in a school

Further comments:

• NoSiri is a temporary number assigned to each voter, according to his or her listing order within the voting district (daerah mengundi, DM), for a particular update of the database. It runs from 1 to a few thousands. Within each DM, voters are arranged from the lowest to the highest new IC number, and then each is assigned a NoSiri. NoSiri will change for each edition of electoral roll, because a new registrant, eg, may have an IC that is inserted anywhere within the DM list.


• IC, or the new IC number, is always 12-digit in length, and is the most important column.
• SPR has apparently made IC a "unique key," which in database parlance, means there can be only one occurrence of any IC. SPR's database program probably ensures that duplicate "exact" IC input cannot be accepted.
  
• The IC column cannot contain NULL or blank value. SPR has apparently programmed its database to always have a 12-digit number under the IC field.
  
• Our guess is that around mid-2007 or whereabout, SPR had gone through a "cleaning" campaign to eliminate all voters without new IC number, for reason of incomplete data ( Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap, or MALVU code 31)


• Duplicate IC? There is a persistent question by election monitoring NGOs: If we searched the entire nation's voter database, will we find one voter registered in 2 places? IC is the most natural search criteria because of its uniqueness.
• We have searched the entire 10.9 million+ country-wide electoral roll of 2008 Feb 5, and found zero duplicate "exact" IC.
  
• However, the electoral roll does contain at least 770 sets of "twin" or similar ICs, which we will cover later in another blog entry. An example is the co-existence of something like T0123456 and T123456.
  
• This means any duplicate registration of voters - if there is any - will have to be done through different or variations of IC numbers.


• Objection, possible duplicate from delayed gazzette? How does SPR handle duplicity that can arise from delayed-gazette of some constituencies? To illustrate this problem, consider this. Say IC#123456789012 has moved out of parliamentary seat P049 and into P048 (a few kms away) during 2007q4. However, P049-2007q4 roll was disputed and not gazetted in 20080205 roll; P049-2007q3 was gazetted instead. Now potentially we have this voter listed in P049-2007q3 and P048-2007q4, both gazetted for electoral roll 20080205. It seems SPR's solution is to delete IC#123456789012 from one of the quarter roll, before merging it into the gazetted 20080205 roll, to avoid duplicate. We will cover this topic in another blog entry.


• ICLama, or old IC Number is less important but helps confirm identity. It can be left blank.
• There are a number of errors and inconsistencies in ICLama, which we will list in the next blog entry on old IC numbers.


• Nama is the data field / column for input of voter name. There is some inconsistencies in SPR input format (or perhaps it was NRIC department input) such that Malay middle name variations such as BIN, B, BN., BINTI, BT, BINTE, BTE., etc do give rise to some duplicate registrations. We will cover this topic in another blog entry later.

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Phantom Army Camp and Out-and-In Army Voters

Abandoned army camp in Penang housed 473 phantom voters, who floated out and in during the same quarter ...

Once upon a time, there was a deserted army camp on an island. Island lores had it that 473 phantoms had taken up residence in the camp. Yes, it was recorded in the government scroll.

Mysteriously, during the last northeast monsoon season, 312 of these phantoms floated out of the camp, and just as mysteriously, the same 312 ICs and names floated back into this same camp - all during the 4th quarter of 2007 ...

After the monsoon season, few phantom voters were seen to have moved out (2008q1). Today, local folks will swear by the belief that phantoms continue to linger in the eerie halls of the forsaken camp, where the only sign of life is rodents crawling out of its looted compound ... Perhaps the drug addicts who ransacked the officer mess and dark corridors had run into the spirits, but their lips are sealed ...

Table 1 Background: 473 Phantom Voters

• This abandoned army camp site is known on the electoral roll as locality code 049/26/05/400 or PULAU PINANG state, TANJONG (p049) parliamentary constituency, PADANG KOTA state assembly seat (26), WELLESLEY SCHOOL voting district (DM 05), and MARKAS 2 DIV JLN SULTAN AHMAD SHAH locality (400).
  


• 049/26/05/400 is the army camp pictured above. Wikimapia.org satellite map is here.
  


• GE2008, which took place on 2008 Mar 8, made use of electoral rolls that were gazetted on 2008 Feb 5, using data mostly updated to 2007q4 (2007 Dec 31).
  


• However in the specific case of this Tanjong parliamentary constituency (P049, which covers this army camp), the 2007q4 voter changes (2007 Oct 1 to Dec 31) were disputed by political parties, so the gazetted roll for 2008 Feb 5 included only voter changes for P049 up to 2007q3 (2007 Sep 30).


• Table 1 shows the 473 ICs registered at this location as of the electoral roll gazetted 2008 Feb 5, which was used in the 2008 Mar 8 general election. This means as of 2007q3, there were 473 registered voters at this location.
  


• In table 1, we have only listed the ICs and not the voter names, to minimize unnecessary exposure to the privacy of these (probably) real-person, though clearly non-resident, voters. You can confirm their names and registered location at SPR's voter verification Web site here or by checking SPR-issued MS Access-formatted electoral roll if you have a copy. You should get valid response as long as the SPR site continues to display the electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Feb 5.


• If you represent SPR, an election-monitoring NGO, political party, academician, or journalist with proper editorial and managerial control, you can email me at saengch at gmail dot com to request the detailed data. But I may need some introduction or endorsement from other reputable sources before I give out too much voter details.


• We also have a copy of the SPR-published PDF files for 2007q3 2007q4, and 2008q1 electoral changes for P049.
  

Table 1: 473 voters registered at abandoned army camp MARKAS 2 DIV JLN SULTAN AHMAD SHAH (049/26/05/400, gazetted 2008 Feb 5)

IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC
561225086002	710829085752	771011075856	T1078597	T1095394	T1114810	T1139127	T3009750
570101085088	710921045366	780506135536	T1078795	T1095435	T1116815	T1139526	T3009989
580209085230	711122035318	790419086376	T1078921	T1095457	T1117123	T1139531	T3010091
590615035414	720110045054	791012016442	T1079042	T1095577	T1117328	T1139947	T411736
600515016108	720124025740	791012095072	T1079044	T1095713	T1117344	T1139998	T411897
620508025004	720206025330	791017086204	T1080098	T1095911	T1117382	T1140181	T411967
620611086470	720320045474	791212115138	T1080754	T1095949	T1117527	T1140818	T5000793
630702055572	720401105002	791214025670	T1080858	T1096441	T1117821	T1142067	T5000921
631201075756	720416086086	800215025244	T1081020	T1096636	T1117928	T1142070	T5001324
640114075592	720430025204	811105136158	T1081075	T1097109	T1118610	T1142199	T5001513
640303075380	720502085784	811127015154	T1081294	T1097430	T1118974	T1142303	T5001962
640606115458	720516075480	T1066854	T1081555	T1097643	T1119044	T1142429	T5002385
651228105968	720811025304	T1067427	T1081699	T1097667	T1119084	T1144257	T5002596
660115045318	720817715410	T1067438	T1081929	T1097779	T1119521	T1148895	T5003031
660711025508	730102085928	T1067491	T1081944	T1097781	T1119616	T1151853	T5003204
660819025390	730104086430	T1068390	T1082059	T1098097	T1119722	T1151974	T5003205
660925025466	730310135168	T1069183	T1082104	T1098119	T1120504	T1152426	T5003218
660926085954	730312025106	T1069670	T1082217	T1098210	T1121371	T3000068	T5003228
661118025042	730312075656	T1070523	T1082604	T1098270	T1121432	T3000442	T5003360
661217025486	730322075158	T1070539	T1082757	T1098519	T1121684	T3000587	T5003365
670628085170	730405025404	T1071252	T1082767	T1098594	T1121737	T3000755	T5003549
680108025106	730811075618	T1071909	T1082967	T1098741	T1121767	T3001277	T5003694
680108075402	740124025060	T1072146	T1083635	T1099747	T1122147	T3001458	T5004074
680301086736	740320075284	T1072209	T1083827	T1100081	T1122148	T3001809	T5004320
680307015496	740321026206	T1072628	T1084098	T1100214	T1122386	T3001934	T5004394
680331085232	740602085632	T1073032	T1084511	T1100881	T1122924	T3002209	T5004696
680404025514	740617085934	T1073274	T1084570	T1101166	T1123125	T3002277	T532915
680607075124	740628025400	T1073360	T1084895	T1101775	T1124177	T3002430	T533534
680705085166	741217025072	T1073798	T1085133	T1102130	T1124252	T3002476	T533733
681211045302	741227065260	T1073840	T1085378	T1102348	T1124755	T3002908	T533952
690303075044	750116085468	T1073901	T1085400	T1102562	T1124951	T3003203	T534171
690315025140	750207025110	T1073956	T1087784	T1102629	T1125256	T3003612	T534711
690401025614	750208075312	T1074014	T1088184	T1103233	T1125329	T3003850	T534877
690417075202	750304025470	T1074043	T1088443	T1103770	T1126227	T3003930	T535067
690515135782	750402075324	T1074079	T1088505	T1103778	T1126264	T3004777	T535380
690609075100	750411086068	T1074330	T1088522	T1103938	T1126265	T3006044	T535571
690612085668	750507115134	T1074702	T1088782	T1104054	T1127241	T3006311	T535831
690713035440	750523035388	T1075100	T1089881	T1104451	T1127718	T3006349	T536309
690714025672	750701036042	T1075123	T1090001	T1104685	T1127824	T3006761	T536313
690813086114	750722075112	T1075125	T1090597	T1105032	T1127860	T3006989	T6004530
691105075558	750724025426	T1075484	T1090983	T1105219	T1128036	T3007140	T6033377
691212025222	750803085523	T1075585	T1091091	T1105402	T1129536	T3007353	T6074863
700103025110	750812026082	T1075679	T1091133	T1105808	T1129747	T3007599	T6083862
700211025572	750814086070	T1075732	T1091458	T1105811	T1130272	T3007625	T60843
700417095066	750924135144	T1075850	T1091708	T1105973	T1130939	T3007634	T6103844
700502025150	751114086170	T1075927	T1091878	T1106510	T1131336	T3007913	T6108665
700609085014	751220135394	T1076022	T1092092	T1106533	T1131535	T3007963	T6121730
700923025378	751224025344	T1076053	T1092284	T1106924	T1132089	T3008032	T6138844
701225086258	760126025054	T1076055	T1092328	T1107145	T1132549	T3008247	T6144657
710203045396	760706026352	T1076160	T1092410	T1107587	T1133092	T3008314	T6146727
710221025866	760708026188	T1076228	T1092578	T1107882	T1133677	T3008377	T6153203
710222025526	760821086086	T1076287	T1092600	T1109679	T1133834	T3008539	T6155479
710324135152	760918135008	T1076479	T1092668	T1110236	T1134349	T3008561	T720147
710331075100	761006055296	T1076613	T1092700	T1111530	T1135297	T3008583
710518026106	761011025366	T1077069	T1092703	T1112419	T1135931	T3008608
710531015006	761023075504	T1077080	T1092808	T1112521	T1136035	T3008881
710612025054	761225025556	T1077109	T1092809	T1113022	T1136992	T3009165
710621035342	770525087016	T1077641	T1094259	T1113084	T1138133	T3009189
710711025308	770617025242	T1077920	T1094610	T1113092	T1138381	T3009694
710726025546	771002076494	T1078194	T1094813	T1114000	T1138509	T3009710

Source: SPR

Table 2 Background: Out-and-In Phamtom Voters

• Subsequent to 2007q3, that is in 2007q4 (not gazetted), there were 312 voters who were moved out of this army camp ( Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat, a deletion to voter list, code 32 by MALVU).
  


• But strangely enough, also during 2007q4, the same 312 voters were moved back into this army camp ( Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat, an addition to voter list, code 12 by MALVU).


• These 624 changes (=312x2) were part of a total of 684 voter changes at 049/26/05/400 during 2007q4. The other 60 changes (684-624) were of minor interest. The 60 included 2 voters who registered as new army voters in 2007q4, and then immediately retired from the army, also in 2007q4.
  


• Table 2 lists the ICs of those 312 voters who were moved out and in of this same location (049/26/05/400) during the same quarter (2007q4).
  


• There may be a question whether they were IN-OUT or OUT-IN voters. We have figured out that they were OUT-and-IN voters, because we have also found all 312 on the 2008 Fed 5 gazetted electoral rolls (2007 Sep 30 data for P049 Tanjong). Since these 312 were already in the electoral roll on 2007 Sep 30, for the following quarter of 2007q4 these 312 can only be moved OUT first, before being moved IN again.


• It looks to us that these 312 army voters were at first moved out of this phantom army camp in 2007q4, only to have another authority reversed the decision, and moved them immediately, back to the same location, during the same quarter.
  


• You will also be able to find all these ICs on SPR's voter verification Web site here with data gazetted on 2008 Feb 5. However, you can only see their "movement out of and then into the same army camp" by viewing the 2007q4 PDF file for "Senarai Tambahan" or supplementary list of quarter changes of voters. We have a copy of this PDF file that was downloaded from SPR Web site around 2008 Jan 17.

Table 2: 312 voters who moved OUT and IN of abandoned army camp in 2007q4 (049/26/05/400 MARKAS 2 DIV JLN SULTAN AHMAD SHAH)

IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC
T1066854	T1077080	T1088522	T1098097	T1117344	T1131336	T3003203	T5002596
T1067427	T1077109	T1088782	T1098119	T1117527	T1132089	T3003612	T5003031
T1067438	T1077641	T1089881	T1098210	T1117821	T1132549	T3003850	T5003205
T1067491	T1077920	T1090001	T1098270	T1117928	T1133677	T3003930	T5003218
T1068390	T1078194	T1090597	T1098519	T1118610	T1133834	T3004777	T5003228
T1069183	T1078597	T1090983	T1098594	T1118974	T1134349	T3006044	T5003360
T1069670	T1078795	T1091091	T1098741	T1119044	T1135297	T3006311	T5003365
T1070523	T1078921	T1091133	T1099747	T1119084	T1135931	T3006349	T5003694
T1070539	T1079042	T1091458	T1100214	T1119521	T1136992	T3006761	T5004074
T1071252	T1079044	T1091708	T1100881	T1119616	T1138133	T3006989	T5004320
T1071909	T1080098	T1091878	T1101775	T1119722	T1138381	T3007140	T5004394
T1072146	T1080754	T1092092	T1102130	T1120504	T1138509	T3007353	T5004696
T1072628	T1080858	T1092284	T1102348	T1121371	T1139127	T3007625	T532915
T1073274	T1081020	T1092328	T1102562	T1121684	T1139526	T3007634	T533534
T1073360	T1081075	T1092410	T1103770	T1121737	T1139531	T3007913	T533733
T1073798	T1081294	T1092578	T1103778	T1121767	T1139947	T3007963	T533952
T1073840	T1081555	T1092600	T1103938	T1122147	T1139998	T3008032	T534171
T1073901	T1081699	T1092668	T1104054	T1122148	T1140181	T3008247	T534711
T1073956	T1081929	T1092700	T1104451	T1122386	T1140818	T3008314	T534877
T1074014	T1081944	T1092703	T1104685	T1122924	T1142067	T3008377	T535067
T1074043	T1082059	T1092808	T1105032	T1123125	T1142199	T3008539	T535380
T1074079	T1082104	T1092809	T1105402	T1124177	T1142303	T3008561	T535571
T1074330	T1082217	T1094259	T1105811	T1124252	T1142429	T3008608	T535831
T1074702	T1082604	T1094610	T1105973	T1124755	T1144257	T3008881	T536309
T1075100	T1082757	T1095394	T1106510	T1124951	T1148895	T3009165	T536313
T1075123	T1082767	T1095435	T1106533	T1125256	T1151974	T3009189	T6004530
T1075125	T1082967	T1095457	T1106924	T1125329	T1152426	T3009694	T6033377
T1075484	T1083635	T1095577	T1107145	T1126227	T3000068	T3009710	T6074863
T1075585	T1083827	T1095713	T1107587	T1126264	T3000442	T3009750	T6083862
T1075679	T1084098	T1095911	T1107882	T1126265	T3000587	T3009989	T60843
T1075732	T1084511	T1095949	T1109679	T1127241	T3000755	T3010091	T6103844
T1075850	T1084570	T1096441	T1110236	T1127718	T3001277	T411736	T6108665
T1075927	T1085133	T1096636	T1111530	T1127824	T3001458	T411897	T6121730
T1076022	T1085378	T1097109	T1113022	T1127860	T3001934	T411967	T6138844
T1076053	T1085400	T1097430	T1114000	T1128036	T3002209	T5000793	T6144657
T1076228	T1087784	T1097643	T1114810	T1129536	T3002277	T5000921	T6146727
T1076287	T1088184	T1097667	T1116815	T1129747	T3002430	T5001324	T6153203
T1076479	T1088443	T1097779	T1117123	T1130272	T3002476	T5001513	T6155479
T1076613	T1088505	T1097781	T1117328	T1130939	T3002908	T5002385	T720147

Source: SPR

Table 3 Background: Only 7 unexciting changes in 2008q1

• Subsequent to the end of 2007, in 2008q1 there were minimal movements in this camp in. See Table 3

Table 3: Only 7 changes were made to 049/26/05/400 Phamtom army camp during 2008q1

Locality Code	Change Type	Count
492605400	Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	2
492605400	"Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos"	2
492605400	Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	3

Source: SPR

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Dead Voters Society Membership Reduced

Thousands of dead voters retired in each of the last 2 quarters. Further details on Army/Police movements.

The 3 tables below are related. (Table A = Table B + Table C. ) They summarize the types of quarterly changes in electoral rolls of 2007q4 and 2008q1:

1. All voters (army, police, civilians),
2. Army and police postal voter changes, and
3. Civilian changes, excluding army and police.

Our observations based on these 3 tables:

• New voters mostly civilians: In 2007q4, eg, new registrations were 55% of all changes. These are mostly civilian new registrations, since new registrations by Police/Army voters only accounted for 1.3% of all voter changes. Similar pattern occurred in 2008q1 -- there were very few new Army/Police voters.


• What the Army/Police voters excel at is moving around before the GE. While civilian voters who moved addresses accounted for 13.2% and 13.6% -- quite evenly distributed over the 2 quarters -- of 2007q4 and 2008q1 respectively, the Army/Police were particularly active before the GE. Army/Police voters who were repositioned accounted for 5.8% of all voter changes in 2007q4 just in time for GE2008, but only 0.4% during 2008q1 when it was too late for GE2008.


• Recent campaign to strike off dead voters? SPR deleted 16,651 and 18,548 dead voters, or 5.8% and a significant 14.1% of voter changes, respectively during 2007q4 and 2008q1. These are mostly civilian voters. Judging from the significant percentage of 14.1% of a relatively "more normal" quarter of 2008q1, it looks like this is a recent campaign and determination by the SPR to clean up the Dead Voters Society after persistent protests by election watch groups.

Data background: See earlier blog for a basic understanding about Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4. For overview, also see the last post Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008.

A. ALL VOTERS INCL. ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	75,484	57.5%	159,123	55.0%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	18,385	14.0%	54,920	19.0%
Subtotal - Addition		93,869	71.5%	214,043	74.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	18,385	14.0%	54,920	19.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	18,548	14.1%	16,651	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	2	0.0%	671	0.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	-	0.0%	992	0.3%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	1	0.0%	1,261	0.4%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	8	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	357	0.3%	5	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	1	0.0%	121	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	54	0.0%	63	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	7	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	-	0.0%	362	0.1%
Others	99	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		37,363	28.5%	75,060	26.0%
Total - ALL VOTERS		131,232	100.0%	289,103	100.0%
B. ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	814	0.6%	3,710	1.3%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	528	0.4%	16,743	5.8%
Subtotal - Addition		1,342	1.0%	20,453	7.1%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	578	0.4%	16,806	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	9	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	2	0.0%	668	0.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	0	0.0%	2	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	1	0.0%	1,261	0.4%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	355	0.3%	1	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	0	0.0%	8	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	7	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	0	0.0%	362	0.1%
Others	99	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		952	0.7%	19,119	6.6%
Total - ARMY/POLICE VOTERS		2,294	1.7%	39,572	13.7%
C. EXCLUDING ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	74,670	56.9%	155,413	53.8%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	17,857	13.6%	38,177	13.2%
Subtotal - Addition		92,527	70.5%	193,590	67.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	17,807	13.6%	38,114	13.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	18,539	14.1%	16,644	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	-	0.0%	990	0.3%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	8	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	2	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	1	0.0%	121	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	54	0.0%	55	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Others	99	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		36,411	27.7%	55,941	19.3%
Total - NON-ARMY/POLICE VOTERS		128,938	98.3%	249,531	86.3%

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
Note: If you find the text too small, try pressing Ctrl and scrolling the mouse's middle button up or down to adjust the font size.


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Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008

A large percentage of army or police postal voters were moved in the quarter before GE2008

The 12th General Election, which took place on 2008 Mar 8, was based on electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Feb 5. In this electoral roll, voter data were updated to 2007 Dec 31 for most parliamentary constituencies, but in some disputed parliamentary constituencies, up to 2007 Sep 30.

We want to see changes to army voters that took place before and during/after GE2008. To do so, we compare the quarterly supplementary rolls (senarai tambahan) for voter changes of 2007q4 and 2008q1 that SPR issues in PDF format.

The table below show a large movement of postal voters (mostly army and police, with locality codes that end in 400s, 500s, 600s, and 700s ).

	spr2008q1	spr2007q4
Start of period	2008 Jan 1	2007 Oct 1
End of period	2008 Mar 31	2007 Dec 31
Total listing of voters	131,232	289,103
Army/police voters, locality codes >=400	2,294	39,572
Percentage army+poilce / total voters	1.7%	13.7%
			Gazetted 20080205 GE2008
NamaParlimen involved in change - count	222	222	222
NamaDUN involved in change - count	572	572	572
NamaDM (Daerah Mengundi) - count	6,578	6,578	6,733
NamaLokaliti (Locality) - count	95,865	95,657	94,801

Large postal/police/army voter movements in the quarter before GE2008:

• There were large changes in voters before GE2008 (2007q4) totaling 289,103, more than double the 131,232 voter changes of the quarter (2008q1) on which the GE falls. We'll examine the reasons in the next blog, but it was mainly because
  1. potential voters were more excited about the upcoming GE, and many registered as voters for the first time,
  2. many changed their addresses, and
  3. a boost by postal voter movements.
  (Remember, where there is a change of address, the voter is counted twice in quarterly list, as a voter moving out of one place, and as a voter moving in to another place.)


• Changes registered for army/police voters total 39,752 in the quarter before GE2008, nearly as big as an urban parliamentary constituency, accounting for a whopping 13.7% of the already-large changes of 289,103.
  


• Had it been a more "regular" quarter, such as 2008q1, and considering double-counting, the 39,752 could have accounted for over 25% voter changes.
  


• In comparison, the equivalent category was only 2,294 during the GE quarter, or 1.7% of total changes for that quarter.

Background statistics about parliament, DUNs, DM, localities:

• There were 222 parliamentary constituencies -- no change because there will be no re-delineation until 2010-1011.


• There were 572 DUNs for both quarters, excluding federal territories, which sadly have no state representation.


• There 6,578 Daerah Mengundi (voting districts) for both quaters, but strangely only 6,733 DMs for the voters roll gazetted on Feb 5, 2008. Either my data has problems, or it is due to disputed/ungazetted parliamentary rolls. It is a fact that some constituencies, such as P049 (Tanjong, PP) used older 2007q3 voter list in the gazetted roll, because the 2007q4 list was disputed. It is possible that SPR had drawn up new DMs for 2007q4 (Coincidence? Or why so late?) that had to be put aside until these seats are gazetted. Such practice plus SPR errors could also have contributed to some of the past complaints about political parties receiving different voters rolls, voters getting assigned to new DMs not being able to find their familiar DMs, etc.


• There were 95,657 localities (streets, government hostels, army camp) in 2007q4, increasing to 95,865 in 2008q1, but only 94,801 for gazette date 2008 Feb 5. The reason is likely again to be disputed constituencies, such that some constituencies such as P049 included only 2007q3 list of a smaller number of localities.

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Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4

Background: What happens to the electoral roll every quarter?

About 15-30 days after the end of a quarter, SPR will publish changes to the electoral roll to allow the public to review them at post offices, as well as online at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pamer_rang.htm. These 222 PDF files will be removed after about 2 weeks. SPR's Bahasa Malaysia Web site is more updated than the English site.

I've used some programs and scripts to extract the data into a database. You cannot use Adobe Reader's "Save As" command, because that output loses information about how the right columns are separated by spaces, tabs, etc.

The 2008 first quarter supplemental voter list is now available. I call this set of data "spr2008q1." I have also downloaded the PDF files for 2007 4th quarter, and call this set of data "spr2007q4."

I will post quick overviews of spr2008q1 (data from after the 12th General election), and some comparison with spr2007q4 (data from before the election).

What are the changes?

To begin with, we need to know what types of changes are reflected in the quarterly supplementary electoral rolls. Both ADDITIONs and DELETIONs are included, and some rows may offset the other rows. For example, one voter can move OUT from one locality, and move INTO another, and will appear twice in this list.

The ADDITIONs are reflected in the first 2 types below (types 11 nd 12). The rest are DELETIONs. The "changeType" code in the left column is MALVU's own numbering system, and is not created by the SPR. These changes were compiled from 2007q4 and 2008q1; there may be more types of changes that did not occur in these 2 quarters.

change Type	changeTypeText (SPR text)	changeTypeExplanation (Malvu explanation)
11	PENDAFTARAN BARU	Addition into list - New registration
12	PENDAFTARAN TUKAR ALAMAT	Addition into list - Change of address registration (move in)
31	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PENGENALAN DIRI TIDAK LENGKAP	Deletion from list - Identification not complete
32	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PEMILIH BERTUKAR ALAMAT	Deletion from list - Voter change address (move out)
33	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - KEMATIAN	Deletion from list - Death
34	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - HILANG KELAYAKAN SEBAGAI PENGUNDI POS	Deletion from list - Loss of eligibility as postal voter
35	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - DILUCUTKAN KEWARGANEGARAAN	Deletion from list - Loss of citizenship
36	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - BERSARA POLIS/ TENTERA	Deletion from list - Retired from police or army
37	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - MASUK TENTERA	Deletion from list - Enter into army
38	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - SILAP PENDATAAN	Deletion from list - Data mistakes
39	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - MASUK POLIS	Deletion from list - Enter into police
40	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PERGI KE LUAR NEGERI	Deletion from list - Gone out of country
41	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PULANG DARI LUAR NEGERI	Deletion from list - Return from out of country
42	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - TENTERA DI RAGUI	Deletion from list - Army in doubt (?)
99	OTHERS	Others

Alternative title for SPR2008q1: Rang Daftar Pemilih Tambahan Untuk Suku Pertama Tahun 2008 (1 JANUARI - 31 MAC). Short name for these set of data compiled by MALVU from SPR sources: "spr2008q1" and "spr2007q4."
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