Pro Forma Electoral Roll for P044 for 2008Q1

"Pro Forma," or projected, electoral roll will speed planning and by-election monitoring at P044, Permatang Pauh

What we don't have (as of 5/8/08), don't know, or will find out too late:

• We don't yet know which electoral roll SPR will use for the P044 by-election. Will it be the roll gazetted on 2008 Jun 19 that incorporated 2008Q1 voter changes, or some version that incorporates 2008Q2 changes, to be gazetted in late August?
• We don't have the finalized version of the 2008 Jun 19 electoral roll,
• We don't have the 2008Q2 electoral changes (supplementary roll).

However, we do have the 20080205-gazetted full roll and the 2008Q1 supplemental roll, and I can append the latter to the former, to create a "pro forma" version of the 2008 Jun 19 electoral roll, specifically for P044 Permatang Pauh.

Such a "pro forma" electoral roll for P044 is useful, because:

• The campaign period will be very short,
  
• We don't have to wait for SPR to distribute the roll in CD and MS Access file,
• We don't have to wait to process the SPR's MS Access file,
• We can immediately start to list the Daerah Mengundi, Tempat Mengundi, and other details, to work with election monitoring volunteers
  

However, such a "pro forma" roll has its drawbacks:

• It may contain minor errors in voter names,
• It may not reflect additions or changes in Tempat Mengundi and the schools used, compared to the recent 2008 Mar 2, 12th General Election.
• While we project for the roll to include 2008Q1 changes, the SPR may go further and incorporate 2008Q2 voter changes (which we do not have).
  

But making use of our "pro forma" electoral roll, below we compare changes in voters, localities, postal voters, etc, between the 11th GE (2004) and the quarter of 2008Q1:

Table A: P044 - Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, Pulau Pinang

	2004/03/02	2008/02/05	2008Q1	20080619
	11th GE	12th GE	voter changes	pro forma
DUN, state assembly seats	3	3	3	3
DM, voting districts	25	28	28	28
TM, voting stations		25		25
Lokaliti, localities	403	419	218	420
Postal voters	91	492	1	491
All voters	54,041	58,449	658	58,761
Change voter		4,408		312
Change %		8.2%		0.5%
2008Q1 Changes in Supplementary Roll for P044
Addition into list - New registration			373
Addition into list - Change of address registration (move in)			112
Deletion from list - Voter change address (move out)			-84
Deletion from list - Death			-89
Total count of voters			658
Net changes in voters			312

Comments on Table A

• Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, P044, of Pulau Pinang has 3 DUNS (state assembly seats), a number that has not changed since 2004, namely
  
  • 044/10 Seberang Jaya
  • 044/11 Permatang Pasir
  • 044/12 Penanti
• Voting districts (Daerah Mengundi), however, has apparently increased from 25 in 2004 to 28 now. We will list the DM in a future post.
• We only have data on the Polling Stations (Tempat Mengundi) for 2008/02/05 data, and there are 25 TMs, meaning 3 of the 28 DMs are sharing TM with other DMs.

Localities

• Localities are streets, army camps, or postal locations. The number of localities increased from 403 in 2004 (11th GE) to 419 in 2008/02/05 (12th GE). There has been one additional localities added in 2008Q1.
• The additional locality is 044/10/01/059 Seberang Jaya/Jalan Sembilang/Lorong Sembilang 33

Postal Voters

• There were only 91 postal voters in 2004 (11th GE).
  
• The number of voters jumped to 492 in the 2008 roll for the 12th GE, with the inlcusion of 404 postal voters from the newly added locality of "Balai Polis Bukit Mertajam."
  
• In 2008Q1, one police officer moved out of Balai Polis BM and P044, reducing the postal voter to 491.

Total voters

• The total number of voters in 11th GE was 54,041.
• Voters increased by 8% to 58,449 by 20080205 for the 12th GE .
• The 2008Q1 supplemental electoral roll included 658 voter changes, comprising 373 new voters (addition), 112 voters moving in (addition), -84 voters moving out (deletion), and -89 deletion due to death.
  
• Net changes involved 312 more voters in 2008Q1.
• The ending number of voters by 2008Q1 totalled 58,761 voters.