P044 By-Election: 2008Q1 Roll Gazetted Jun 19, With Further Deletions

For the Permatang Pauh by-election, SPR is using 2008Q1 supplemental voters roll gazetted on June 19, appended to 20080205-gazetted data used in the 12th GE, but further deleting dead and move-out voters up to 2008Q2 or 2008 Jul 31

In its press release partially quoted below, SPR is describing a set of electoral roll that is close to our pro-forma electoral roll, except SPR further deletes dead voters and moved-out voters updated to either 2008Q2 or 2008 Jul 31. The further deletion of dead voters and move-outs, based on the ungazetted changes in 2008Q2, explains why the total number of 58,459 voters is lower than our pro-forma estimate of 58,761.

It sounds like new voters registered in April, May, June will not be able to vote. But dead voters and move-outs updates in the same months of April, May, June, will be deleted from the 2008-Jun-19-gazetted data (data as of 2008Q1).

There are several dates involved in any one roll:

(a) date of data: 2008 Mar 31 (incoporating 2008Q1 supplemental roll)
(b) date of gazette: 2008 Jun 19
(c) date of partial additional changes: 2008 Jul 31 (to delete further dead voters and move-outs, based on ungazetted changes in 2008Q2 up to June 30, perhaps even up to July 31).

If the above understanding is correct, then SPR is being conservative. Perhaps even over-conservative to the extent of using 2008Q1 data, but further deleting ungazetted dead voters and move-outs from 2008Q2. If this guess is correct, we have less to worry about recently-imported phantoms.

Voters verification specifically for the P044 by-election http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/permatangpauh/prayakecil.aspx

Quoted from SPR statement at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/Pengumuman/kenyataan_akhbar.htm

4.1 Tarikh Writ dikeluarkan : 7 OGOS 2008

4.2 Tarikh Notis dikeluarkan : 8 OGOS 2008

4.3 Tarikh Penamaan Calon : 16 OGOS 2008

4.4 Tarikh Pengundian : 26 OGOS 2008
(Jika ada pertandingan)

5. Bagi tujuan pilihan raya kecil ini, menurut Peraturan 9 Peraturan-Peraturan Pilihan Raya (Pendaftaran Pemilih) 2002, Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya menentukan bahawa Daftar Pemilih Induk 2007 yang diwartakan pada 5 Februari 2008 dan Daftar Pemilih Tambahan Suku Tahun Pertama tahun 2008 yang diwartakan pada 19 Jun 2008 dan dikemaskinikan sehingga 31 Julai 2008, hendaklah digunakan dalam pilihan raya kecil P.44 Permatang Pauh ini. Seramai 58,459 pemilih yang terdiri daripada 57,969 pemilih biasa dan 490 pemilih pos adalah layak untuk mengundi dalam pilihan raya kecil bagi P.44 Permatang Pauh ini.