Penanti centenerians already cleaned out in August 2008

We analyze voter age groups and changes. The largest voter age group in Penanti is the 40-49 year-old group. SPR had deleted all 100+ year-old voters just before the August 2008 Permatang Pauh by-election.

Apparently to avoid embarrassment during the August 2008 Permatang Pauh by-election, SPR had deleted all 100-year-old voters in a cleaning overdrive by 2008 Jul 31. See our report here: Permatang Pauh Lost 25 Centenarians. Did SPR follow proper procedure?

We are able to make two pairs of comparison because we have three sets of voter data for Penanti:

1. 2008 Feb 05-gazetted data for GE12,
2. 2008 Jul 31 data under Permatang Pauh by-election, and
   
3. 2009 Apr 16 data under the current Penanti by-election.
   

Table A compares Sets 1 and 2, while Table B compares sets 2 and 3.

Tables A and B show that:

• The largest age group for voters in Penanti are 40-49 year-olds,
• The second largest group are 30-39 year-olds.
• The SPR deleted voters aged 100 and older, across the board, before 2008 Jul 31 data (in Table A),
• Since then, SPR has no need to delete any centenerians (inTable B),
• Table A's net decrease in voters, despite 6 months of newly-registered voters, indicated SPR was aggressively deleting voters by 2008 Jul 31, probably to avoid embarrassing anomalies before the high-profile Permatang Pauh by-election.
• Net voter increased only by 4 between the Permatang Pau and Penanti by-elections (in Table B).
  

Table A: P044 N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll Voters by Age Groups
Comparing 20080205 data with 20080731

			GE12	By-Election				GE12	By-Election
Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Gazetted	Date Date				Percentage	Percentage
Group	From	To	20080205	20080731	Change	Change %		20080731	20080731
21-29	1979	1987	1,789	1,845	56	3.0%		11.6%	12.0%
30-39	1969	1978	3,587	3,610	23	0.6%		23.3%	23.5%
40-49	1959	1968	4,096	4,086	(10)	-0.2%		26.6%	26.6%
50-59	1949	1958	2,912	2,900	(12)	-0.4%		18.9%	18.9%
60-69	1939	1948	1,753	1,726	(27)	-1.6%		11.4%	11.2%
70-79	1929	1938	958	923	(35)	-3.8%		6.2%	6.0%
80-89	1919	1928	275	253	(22)	-8.7%		1.8%	1.6%
90-99	1909	1918	40	37	(3)	-8.1%		0.3%	0.2%
100+	1884	1908	11	-	(11)	#DIV/0!		0.1%	0.0%
Total			15,421	15,380	(41)	-0.3%		100.0%	100.0%

Table B: P044 N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll Voters by Age Groups
Comparing 20080731 data with 20090416

			By-Election	By-Election				By-Election	By-Election
Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Data Date	Date Date				Percentage	Percentage
Group	From	To	20080731	20090416	Change	Change %		20080731	20090416
21-29	1979	1987	1,845	1,943	98	5.0%		12.0%	12.6%
30-39	1969	1978	3,610	3,623	13	0.4%		23.4%	23.6%
40-49	1959	1968	4,086	4,083	(3)	-0.1%		26.5%	26.5%
50-59	1949	1958	2,900	2,883	(17)	-0.6%		18.8%	18.7%
60-69	1939	1948	1,726	1,696	(30)	-1.8%		11.2%	11.0%
70-79	1929	1938	923	891	(32)	-3.6%		6.0%	5.8%
80-89	1919	1928	253	234	(19)	-8.1%		1.6%	1.5%
90-99	1909	1918	37	31	(6)	-19.4%		0.2%	0.2%
100+	1884	1908	-	-	-	#DIV/0!		0.0%	0.0%
Total			15,380	15,384	4	0.0%		99.7%	100.0%

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

SPR to dismiss Penanti winner for "pondok panas?"

SPR appears to be laying the ground to dismiss any winning candidate at Penanti who may decide to challenge the latest ban on "pondok panas." Will this be the first directly-elected Deputy Chief Minister in Malaysia? Will PKR defy the ban? Will SPR risk public outcry and dismiss the winning candidate on any pondok panas "violation?"

Update 2009 May 13: SPR has reversed its position and will now allow the set up of pondok panas as long as they are more than 50 metres from voting centers. The question remains: Will SPR be competent enough to clearly set out the border from which the 50 meters are counted, so that political parties have clear ideas to instruct their contractors to place the booths where they should be?

Update 2009 May 31: MAFREL continues to oppose the permission for pondok panas, now that SPR backs down and dilly-dally by not allowing pondok panas but allowing "information booth."

PKR continues to push the ambiguous limit. MAFREL continues to demand complete halt to campaigning. All See continued debate at:

• In the news: MAFREL stick to no-party booths demand
• Penanti heralds ‘a new election culture’
• EC/SPR reply to MAFREL’s no-party tent stand
• How far do PKR want to campaign on polling day?
  

---

Original Post

No less than the new chairman of SPR (Election Commission) has set the new and strict condition that candidates in the Penanti by-election may not erect "service booths" or "pondok panas" outside polling centers on polling day in Penanti on May 31. This is in addition to the warning that parties and candidates may not campaign on polling day (a rule that is widely understood but as widely violated without consequences in the past). Bernama quoted him as saying the penalty may be the forfeiture of the by-election victory.

However, Parti Keadilan Rakyat has vowed to defy the new no-pondok-panas rule, while observing the existing no-campaign-on-polling-day law. It reasons the law allows for pondok panas provided there is enough distance from the polling center and there is no canvassing activities.

PKR also cited the 2004 history when SPR banned pondok panas but reversed the ruling during the last hours without informing, and thereby disadvantaging, the opposition coalition.

PKR has also promised to install its candidate as the Deputy Chief Minister of Penang state government, which gives rise to these interesting questions:

1. Will this be the first directly-elected Deputy Chief Minister in Malaysia (albeit by only one of the 40 state seats)?
2. If PKR went ahead with erecting pondok panas (which is likely) and SPR went ahead to disqualify the winning candidate (also likely), what will be the reaction from voters and political parties?
3. How will be it affect the Penang governing structure?
   

The answer may lie in

• The precise wording of the existing election laws,
• The enforcibility of any additional guidelines by the SPR, and
  
• a good read of this SPR-published rule in a PDF file here: Penguatkuasaan Larangan Berkempen Pada Hari Mengundi Seksyen 26(1) Akta Kesalahan pilihan Raya 1954 ( 7 May 2009 )
  

A problem of border definition for "Voting Place/Station" (Tempat Mengundi)

A key problem with "pondok panas" is really the unclear or lack of definition of the border of the voting station, from which SPR counts 50 meters where no "pondok panas" is allowed. SPR has been vague historically, causing a vicious cycle of political parties competiting to be "close to the voters."

Does the 50 meters zone start from:

• the voting streams (typically classroom)? This would be a very small no-go zone, thereby even allowing pondok panas inside the fences where the school has large compounds.
• the yellow-tape zone inside the school area, behind SPR's own voter assistance booths, just outside the general areas of voting streams/classrooms? This would be clearly marked with yellow tape, but is still a narrow zone.
• the main gate of the schools typically used as voting place/station? This would allow pondok panas to be set up still close to the school gates.
  
• the whole length of the fence of the school? This will set a large and safe zone, but will make the political parties unhappy for being placed across the street and many houses away.

• And how about voting places that are not schools, such as public hall above a market place, and without clear natural borders such as fences?
• What if political parties' careless contractors just "dumped" the pondok panas overnight right next to the shool gates (right picture) - which unfortunately happens too often?
  
• What if some schools have very large compoungs, and some virtually no compound?
  

The SPR would do well by clearly defining the border of the "voting place/station" and by strictly monitoring and ensuring no-canvassing rule at "pondok panas."

This would require the SPR to mark the "inner zone" at least one or two days before voting day, because if pondok panas are to be allowed in the future, the contractors will have set them up before polling day, and will need to measure 50 meters from the inner-zone markers.


Below are SPR and PKR statements. Emphases are added in red:

Strictly No Campaigning On Polling Day In Penanti - EC April 27, 2009 http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v5/news_lite.php?id=407125 PUTRAJAYA, April 27 (Bernama) -- The Election Commission (EC) is to strictly enforce regulations prohibiting campaigning on polling day in the Penanti state by-election in Penang next month. EC chairman Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof said the prohibition covered canvassing for votes as well as setting up "pondok panas" (party kiosks) close to polling centres. He disclosed this after announcing May 23 and 31 as the dates for nomination and polling, respectively, in the by-election. Political parties should make full use of the eight days of campaigning from May 23 until midnight of May 30, he said. "I want to begin strictly enforcing the prohibitions in Penanti. Voters must be able to go to the polling centres without any hindrance. If possible, we want to make this the culture in future elections," he said. Abdul Aziz said there was no necessity for the party kiosks where voters checked their voting streams as the EC already provided such a service. "It's redundancy. We will provide additional counters for this," he said. Abdul Aziz said the EC would have meetings with the police this week on the enforcement of the prohibition and on the limiting of the number of supporters on nomination day and during the announcement of the election results. EC deputy chairman Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar said the party kiosks close to polling centres were a centre of tension as party supporters campaigned there. He said the police, returning officers and EC officers could stop anyone from setting up these kiosks. Election candidates and agents would be held liable for the party kiosks and individuals themselves would be held responsible for campaigning on polling day, he said. Offenders could be fined RM5,000 and, by virtue of the offence, cannot be registered or listed as an elector in any election or picked as a candidate in any election for five years from the date of the offence. "If the individual has been elected on that date, then the seat must be vacated," he said. -- BERNAMA PKR to defy EC's ban on 'pondok panas' Apr 30, 09 http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/103402 PKR will adhere to the Election Commission's condition to bar active campaigning on polling day, but will still erect electoral booths (pondok panas) near all polling stations during the Penanti by-election in Penang. The party also disagrees with the EC's rule to restrict the electoral campaign period for eight days from nomination day on Saturday May 23 until midnight on May 30, the eve of polling day. PKR national election machinery director Saifuddin Nasution slammed the eight-day campaign period as ridiculous, insufficient and inadequate for any contestants to prepare the election machinery, mobilise workers and supporters and disseminate their messages across to electorates. "A short campaign period is unjust and unfair," he told reporters after speaking at a public forum organised by the party Bayan Baru division's Youth wing in Penang last night. He said the party would start its campaign soon, well before nomination day, but would stop canvassing votes on polling day on May 31, to provide the cool off period for electorates. He said pondok panas were erected by political parties not to canvass votes but to compliment EC and provide an electoral service to voters to cast their ballots without much hassle. "It's a free service provided by political parties to all voters. I don't understand why the EC wants to stop this," said Saifuddin, the Machang parliamentarian. He also recalled that EC banned pondok panas in the 2004 general election, only to lift it before the polling day without informing non-Barisan Nasional parties. "Then Barisan Alternatif did not erect any pondok panas but BN did. We are going ahead with our pondok panas," he said. EC head Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof said political parties and their supporters will be prevented from canvassing for votes and campaigning on polling day in the Penanti by-election to allow a cooling-off period for voters to make their choice. "We have allowed a campaign period from the nomination day until midnight eve of polling day on May 31, and all parties will have to campaign within that (period),” he added. He also did not rule out the possibility that the number of supporters accompanying candidates on nomination day would be limited to a "sensible" number, so that the police strength can also be reduced. To this, Saifuddin pointed out that it was the duty of the police, not the EC, to maintain law and order during election period. "An election is a democratic fun fare for Malaysians. What's wrong in political parties mobilising its supporters by the thousands to accompany their candidates during nomination day? "EC should stick to its job of conducting a fair and just electoral process for all parties and people," stressed Saifuddin, who said the PKR election machinery was well oiled and geared up to secure a big victory in the Penanti by-election. Looking at a big win Disclosing that the party had identified its position, prospects, issues and problems it would face in the campaign, he said his team had drawn out a comprehensive and aggressive election strategy to tackle all obstacles to secure a big win. "We are prepared and up to the challenge in Penanti. I believe our winning prospect is good although we have to work hard to secure it. "We are looking at a big win," said Saifuddin who will head the Pakatan Rakyat election operations in Penanti. The seat fell vacant when former Penang deputy chief minister I Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin resigned on April 16 The state seat comes under PKR supremo Anwar Ibrahim's Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency - a PKR stronghold. In the Permatang Pauh by-election last August, Penanti voters gave Anwar a thumping majority of 3,276. PKR's Abdul Rahman Abdul Kadir won the state seat in 1999 before losing it to Permatang Pauh Umno chief Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid in 2004. He in turn lost to Mohammad Fairus last year. First-timer Mohammad Fairus took the seat with a majority of 2,219. He polled 7,346 votes against Abdul Jalil's 5,127. Former academician and PKR state deputy leader, 58-year-old Mansor Othman is the PKR candidate for the by-election. Although Umno has not decided on whether to field a candidate, Saifuddin believes the rival party would eventually contest due to grassroots pressure. He expects Umno to play up the issue of 'Mansor the outsider' to stir local sentiments during the campaign, but it would not have much impact on the result. "There are so many people who have contested and won outside their home state, including myself. "I am a parliamentarian from Kelantan and previously won the Lunas state seat in Kedah even though I was actually born in Singapore," said Saifuddin. Fairus issue needs to be addressed When contacted, Mansor, the PKR Balik Pulau division chief who was born in Bayan Baru, acknowledged that Umno would use the issue to stir local sentiment. "But I don't think it would work because people are more interested in service-orientated representatives, someone who can deliver. "Moreover I am not an alien to the area for I have worked for the party in Penanti since I was the state chief in 1999," he told Malaysiakini. Saifuddin however, conceded that the party needed to address the disgruntlement of PKR supporters and constituents over the "Fairus episode." An estimated 30 percent of the electorate is said to be unhappy over the manner the party leadership handled the controversy. "We will explain thoroughly on the reasons for Fairus to resign and the need to replace him with a new leader," said Saifuddin, adding that the former Penanti representative would also join the party campaign.

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Bukit Gantang - Voter Breakdown by Ethnicity, By Saluran

We crudely estimate the racial composition of Bukit Gantang voters by DUN, DM, TM, down to the saluran level.

See the previous blog for brief discussion of the algorithm and issues.

Table: P059 Bukit Gantang Voters - 200902
Ethnic Breakdown - Estimation By a Crude Algorithm. Note postal voters include non-police, absentee voters.

parl/DUN /DM	Sa lu ran	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM	Malay	Chi nese	Ind ian	To tal		% Ma lay	% Chi nese	% In dian	% To tal
059/13/01	1	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	SK Ayer Puteh	302	12	36	350		86.3%	3.4%	10.3%	100%
059/13/01	2	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	SK Ayer Puteh	568	20	60	648		87.7%	3.1%	9.3%	100%
059/13/01	3	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	SK Ayer Puteh	583	4	61	648		90.0%	0.6%	9.4%	100%
059/13/01	4	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	SK Ayer Puteh	537	13	98	648		82.9%	2.0%	15.1%	100%
059/13/01	5	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	SK Ayer Puteh	581	9	61	651		89.3%	1.4%	9.4%	100%
059/13/02	6	Kuala Sapetang	Ayer Puteh	SK Ayer Puteh	236	43	71	350		67.4%	12.3%	20.3%	100%
059/13/02	7	Kuala Sapetang	Ayer Puteh	SK Ayer Puteh	294	28	58	380		77.4%	7.4%	15.3%	100%
059/13/03	1	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	SK Simpang	161	139	50	350		46.0%	39.7%	14.3%	100%
059/13/03	2	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	SK Simpang	272	204	83	559		48.7%	36.5%	14.9%	100%
059/13/03	3	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	SK Simpang	265	186	108	559		47.4%	33.3%	19.3%	100%
059/13/03	4	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	SK Simpang	248	190	121	559		44.4%	34.0%	21.7%	100%
059/13/03	5	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	SK Simpang	290	145	124	559		51.9%	25.9%	22.2%	100%
059/13/04	1	Kuala Sapetang	Jebong	SJKC Khea Wah Matang	262	29	59	350		74.9%	8.3%	16.9%	100%
059/13/04	2	Kuala Sapetang	Jebong	SJKC Khea Wah Matang	348	25	110	483		72.1%	5.2%	22.8%	100%
059/13/04	3	Kuala Sapetang	Jebong	SJKC Khea Wah Matang	385	21	77	483		79.7%	4.4%	15.9%	100%
059/13/04	4	Kuala Sapetang	Jebong	SJKC Khea Wah Matang	410	21	54	485		84.5%	4.3%	11.1%	100%
059/13/05	0	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	Pos	31	-	-	31		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
059/13/05	1	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	SJKC Poay Eng, Kuala Sepetang	5	341	4	350		1.4%	97.4%	1.1%	100%
059/13/05	2	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	SJKC Poay Eng, Kuala Sepetang	9	586	5	600		1.5%	97.7%	0.8%	100%
059/13/05	3	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	SJKC Poay Eng, Kuala Sepetang	10	584	6	600		1.7%	97.3%	1.0%	100%
059/13/05	4	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	SJKC Poay Eng, Kuala Sepetang	7	589	4	600		1.2%	98.2%	0.7%	100%
059/13/05	5	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	SJKC Poay Eng, Kuala Sepetang	7	589	4	600		1.2%	98.2%	0.7%	100%
059/13/05	6	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	SJKC Poay Eng, Kuala Sepetang	17	582	2	601		2.8%	96.8%	0.3%	100%
059/13/06	1	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Menteri	SK Laksamana, Kuala Sepetang	157	188	5	350		44.9%	53.7%	1.4%	100%
059/13/06	2	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Menteri	SK Laksamana, Kuala Sepetang	301	242	6	549		54.8%	44.1%	1.1%	100%
059/13/06	3	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Menteri	SK Laksamana, Kuala Sepetang	358	188	3	549		65.2%	34.2%	0.6%	100%
059/13/07	1	Kuala Sapetang	Matang Gelugor	SK Matang Gelugor	359	28	-	387		92.8%	7.2%	0.0%	100%
059/13/08	2	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Limau	SK Matang Gelugor	357	101	2	460		77.6%	22.0%	0.4%	100%
059/13/09	1	Kuala Sapetang	Jalan Mangala	SK Matang	80	255	15	350		22.9%	72.9%	4.3%	100%
059/13/09	2	Kuala Sapetang	Jalan Mangala	SK Matang	145	394	34	573		25.3%	68.8%	5.9%	100%
059/13/09	3	Kuala Sapetang	Jalan Mangala	SK Matang	209	326	39	574		36.4%	56.8%	6.8%	100%
059/13/10	1	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Jaha	Dewan Orang Ramai Kampong Jaha	256	5	47	308		83.1%	1.6%	15.3%	100%
059/13/11	0	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Mati	Pos	1	-	-	1		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
059/13/11	1	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Mati	Madrasah Aziziah Sungai Mati	141	94	115	350		40.3%	26.9%	32.9%	100%
059/13/11	2	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Mati	Madrasah Aziziah Sungai Mati	212	50	149	411		51.6%	12.2%	36.3%	100%
059/13/12	1	Kuala Sapetang	Bendang Siam	SMK Dato` Wan Ahmad Rasdi	343	6	1	350		98.0%	1.7%	0.3%	100%
059/13/12	2	Kuala Sapetang	Bendang Siam	SMK Dato` Wan Ahmad Rasdi	457	1	3	461		99.1%	0.2%	0.7%	100%
059/13/12	3	Kuala Sapetang	Bendang Siam	SMK Dato` Wan Ahmad Rasdi	460	1	1	462		99.6%	0.2%	0.2%	100%
059/13/13	1	Kuala Sapetang	Changkat Ibol	SK Changkat Ibol	349	1	-	350		99.7%	0.3%	0.0%	100%
059/13/13	2	Kuala Sapetang	Changkat Ibol	SK Changkat Ibol	606	1	1	608		99.7%	0.2%	0.2%	100%
059/13/13	3	Kuala Sapetang	Changkat Ibol	SK Changkat Ibol	608	-	-	608		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
059/13/13	4	Kuala Sapetang	Changkat Ibol	SK Changkat Ibol	607	1	1	609		99.7%	0.2%	0.2%	100%
Subtotal					11,834	6,242	1,678	19,754		59.9%	31.6%	8.5%	100%
059/14/01	0	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	Pos	28	-	2	30		93.3%	0.0%	6.7%	100%
059/14/01	1	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	SMK Simpang	143	138	69	350		40.9%	39.4%	19.7%	100%
059/14/01	2	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	SMK Simpang	308	186	97	591		52.1%	31.5%	16.4%	100%
059/14/01	3	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	SMK Simpang	326	174	91	591		55.2%	29.4%	15.4%	100%
059/14/01	4	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	SMK Simpang	291	226	74	591		49.2%	38.2%	12.5%	100%
059/14/01	5	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	SMK Simpang	265	254	72	591		44.8%	43.0%	12.2%	100%
059/14/01	6	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	SMK Simpang	364	146	81	591		61.6%	24.7%	13.7%	100%
059/14/02	0	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	Pos	-	2	-	2		0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100%
059/14/02	1	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	SJKC Sin Min Simpang	134	185	31	350		38.3%	52.9%	8.9%	100%
059/14/02	2	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	SJKC Sin Min Simpang	289	258	51	598		48.3%	43.1%	8.5%	100%
059/14/02	3	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	SJKC Sin Min Simpang	252	265	81	598		42.1%	44.3%	13.6%	100%
059/14/02	4	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	SJKC Sin Min Simpang	309	190	101	600		51.5%	31.7%	16.8%	100%
059/14/03	5	Changkat Jering	Simpang Baru	SJKC Sin Min Simpang	3	340	7	350		0.9%	97.1%	2.0%	100%
059/14/03	6	Changkat Jering	Simpang Baru	SJKC Sin Min Simpang	6	439	13	458		1.3%	95.9%	2.8%	100%
059/14/03	7	Changkat Jering	Simpang Baru	SJKC Sin Min Simpang	9	432	17	458		2.0%	94.3%	3.7%	100%
059/14/04	0	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	Pos	1	-	-	1		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
059/14/04	1	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	SAR Al-Irshadiah Taman Kaya	137	126	87	350		39.1%	36.0%	24.9%	100%
059/14/04	2	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	SAR Al-Irshadiah Taman Kaya	406	125	126	657		61.8%	19.0%	19.2%	100%
059/14/04	3	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	SAR Al-Irshadiah Taman Kaya	358	204	95	657		54.5%	31.1%	14.5%	100%
059/14/04	4	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	SAR Al-Irshadiah Taman Kaya	244	293	120	657		37.1%	44.6%	18.3%	100%
059/14/04	5	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	SAR Al-Irshadiah Taman Kaya	313	210	136	659		47.5%	31.9%	20.6%	100%
059/14/05	1	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	SK Pengkalan Aor,Taiping	128	167	55	350		36.6%	47.7%	15.7%	100%
059/14/05	2	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	SK Pengkalan Aor,Taiping	247	240	90	577		42.8%	41.6%	15.6%	100%
059/14/05	3	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	SK Pengkalan Aor,Taiping	220	237	120	577		38.1%	41.1%	20.8%	100%
059/14/05	4	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	SK Pengkalan Aor,Taiping	225	229	123	577		39.0%	39.7%	21.3%	100%
059/14/05	5	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	SK Pengkalan Aor,Taiping	249	211	117	577		43.2%	36.6%	20.3%	100%
059/14/05	6	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	SK Pengkalan Aor,Taiping	316	153	109	578		54.7%	26.5%	18.9%	100%
059/14/06	0	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	Pos	-	1	-	1		0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100%
059/14/06	1	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	SAR Alkhairiah Addiniah Larut Tin	238	55	57	350		68.0%	15.7%	16.3%	100%
059/14/06	2	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	SAR Alkhairiah Addiniah Larut Tin	450	94	102	646		69.7%	14.6%	15.8%	100%
059/14/06	3	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	SAR Alkhairiah Addiniah Larut Tin	390	137	119	646		60.4%	21.2%	18.4%	100%
059/14/06	4	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	SAR Alkhairiah Addiniah Larut Tin	308	246	92	646		47.7%	38.1%	14.2%	100%
059/14/06	5	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	SAR Alkhairiah Addiniah Larut Tin	374	186	87	647		57.8%	28.8%	13.5%	100%
059/14/07	1	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	SMK Pengkalan Aur, Air Kuning	315	12	23	350		90.0%	3.4%	6.6%	100%
059/14/07	2	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	SMK Pengkalan Aur, Air Kuning	496	18	49	563		88.1%	3.2%	8.7%	100%
059/14/07	3	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	SMK Pengkalan Aur, Air Kuning	498	21	44	563		88.5%	3.7%	7.8%	100%
059/14/07	4	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	SMK Pengkalan Aur, Air Kuning	472	42	49	563		83.8%	7.5%	8.7%	100%
059/14/07	5	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	SMK Pengkalan Aur, Air Kuning	488	34	44	566		86.2%	6.0%	7.8%	100%
059/14/08	0	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	Pos	17	-	-	17		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
059/14/08	1	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	SK Changkat Jering	297	49	4	350		84.9%	14.0%	1.1%	100%
059/14/08	2	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	SK Changkat Jering	622	55	4	681		91.3%	8.1%	0.6%	100%
059/14/08	3	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	SK Changkat Jering	596	78	7	681		87.5%	11.5%	1.0%	100%
059/14/08	4	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	SK Changkat Jering	661	19	1	681		97.1%	2.8%	0.2%	100%
059/14/09	1	Changkat Jering	Jelutong	SK Jelutong	344	5	1	350		98.3%	1.4%	0.3%	100%
059/14/09	2	Changkat Jering	Jelutong	SK Jelutong	597	10	1	608		98.2%	1.6%	0.2%	100%
059/14/10	1	Changkat Jering	Bukit Gantang	SK Dato` Panglima Bukit Gantang	341	8	1	350		97.4%	2.3%	0.3%	100%
059/14/10	2	Changkat Jering	Bukit Gantang	SK Dato` Panglima Bukit Gantang	471	6	-	477		98.7%	1.3%	0.0%	100%
059/14/10	3	Changkat Jering	Bukit Gantang	SK Dato` Panglima Bukit Gantang	473	4	-	477		99.2%	0.8%	0.0%	100%
059/14/10	4	Changkat Jering	Bukit Gantang	SK Dato` Panglima Bukit Gantang	475	2	-	477		99.6%	0.4%	0.0%	100%
059/14/11	1	Changkat Jering	Kampong Cheh	SK Sultan Abdullah Kampong Cheh	350	-	-	350		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
059/14/11	2	Changkat Jering	Kampong Cheh	SK Sultan Abdullah Kampong Cheh	503	-	-	503		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
059/14/11	3	Changkat Jering	Kampong Cheh	SK Sultan Abdullah Kampong Cheh	503	-	-	503		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
Subtotal					15,850	6,512	2,650	25,012		63.4%	26.0%	10.6%	100%
059/15/01	1	Trong	Kuala Trong	SJKC Siu Sin Trong	247	99	4	350		70.6%	28.3%	1.1%	100%
059/15/01	2	Trong	Kuala Trong	SJKC Siu Sin Trong	321	37	14	372		86.3%	10.0%	3.8%	100%
059/15/02	0	Trong	Pasir Hitam Trong	Pos	8	-	1	9		88.9%	0.0%	11.1%	100%
059/15/02	1	Trong	Pasir Hitam Trong	SJKC Aik Hua Pasir Hitam	1	314	1	316		0.3%	99.4%	0.3%	100%
059/15/03	1	Trong	Kampong Tebok Trong	Dewan Orang Ramai Kampong Tebok Trong	545	-	-	545		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
059/15/04	1	Trong	Trong	SK Toh Johan Trong	299	32	232	563		53.1%	5.7%	41.2%	100%
059/15/05	0	Trong	Trong Barat	Pos	20	-	4	24		83.3%	0.0%	16.7%	100%
059/15/05	2	Trong	Trong Barat	SK Toh Johan Trong	147	156	47	350		42.0%	44.6%	13.4%	100%
059/15/05	3	Trong	Trong Barat	SK Toh Johan Trong	296	123	131	550		53.8%	22.4%	23.8%	100%
059/15/06	4	Trong	Bukit Gantang Selatan	SK Toh Johan Trong	222	16	112	350		63.4%	4.6%	32.0%	100%
059/15/06	5	Trong	Bukit Gantang Selatan	SK Toh Johan Trong	439	4	110	553		79.4%	0.7%	19.9%	100%
059/15/07	1	Trong	Ayer Terjun	SJKC Ngai Seng Ayer Terjun	301	157	40	498		60.4%	31.5%	8.0%	100%
059/15/08	1	Trong	Temelok	SK Temelok	150	160	40	350		42.9%	45.7%	11.4%	100%
059/15/08	2	Trong	Temelok	SK Temelok	237	173	70	480		49.4%	36.0%	14.6%	100%
059/15/08	3	Trong	Temelok	SK Temelok	292	150	39	481		60.7%	31.2%	8.1%	100%
059/15/09	1	Trong	Sungai Che Rahmat	SK Permatang Raja	286	17	-	303		94.4%	5.6%	0.0%	100%
059/15/10	2	Trong	Permatang Raja	SK Permatang Raja	349	-	1	350		99.7%	0.0%	0.3%	100%
059/15/10	3	Trong	Permatang Raja	SK Permatang Raja	648	-	1	649		99.9%	0.0%	0.2%	100%
059/15/11	1	Trong	Sungai Tinggi	SK Sungai Tinggi Trong	243	105	2	350		69.4%	30.0%	0.6%	100%
059/15/11	2	Trong	Sungai Tinggi	SK Sungai Tinggi Trong	373	122	2	497		75.1%	24.6%	0.4%	100%
059/15/11	3	Trong	Sungai Tinggi	SK Sungai Tinggi Trong	377	118	2	497		75.9%	23.7%	0.4%	100%
059/15/11	4	Trong	Sungai Tinggi	SK Sungai Tinggi Trong	420	78	1	499		84.2%	15.6%	0.2%	100%
059/15/12	0	Trong	Padang Gajah	Pos	19	-	1	20		95.0%	0.0%	5.0%	100%
059/15/12	1	Trong	Padang Gajah	SK Padang Gajah	238	59	53	350		68.0%	16.9%	15.1%	100%
059/15/12	2	Trong	Padang Gajah	SK Padang Gajah	385	50	96	531		72.5%	9.4%	18.1%	100%
059/15/13	1	Trong	Batu Hampar	SK Batu Hampar	594	28	34	656		90.6%	4.3%	5.2%	100%
059/15/14	1	Trong	Sungai Rotan	SJKC Sungai Rotan	91	168	44	303		30.0%	55.5%	14.5%	100%
Subtotal					7,548	2,166	1,082	10,796		69.9%	20.1%	10.0%	100%
Total					35,232	14,920	5,410	55,562		63.4%	26.9%	9.7%	100%

Note 1: If you cannot see the full table width, try to click Menu>View>zoom out (or Ctrl-Middle-Mouse-Button-Scroll). Alternatively, click-drag to highlight the table, copy, and paste into Excel to view.

Note 2: SM = Sekolah Menengah, SK=Sekolah Kebangsaan, SMK=Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan, SJKC = Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (China), SJKT = Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Tamil), SAR = Sekolah Agama Rakyat.
Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Bukit Selambau - Racial Breakdown by Saluran

Unfortunately, our countrymen and women still vote on racially based issues. Hence it is still important to analyze racial composition of voters. But only the government has all the detailed breakdown. Here is our attempt at balancing the information power, and to come up with an estimation voter ethnicity distribution down to the voting stream.

Our algorithm is based on the patterns in voter names:

• Our algorithm is crude, but still ends up with reasonably accurate and useful results,
• It currently cannot handle the Dayak name pattern (as in Batang Air). We will improve it later,
• The "Other" minority ethnic names, such as Thai names, tend to be lumped into the "Chinese" category, inflating it by perhaps 1% where the "Other" is significant, such as 1% in Bukit Selambau,
  
• We have compared the official ethnic breakdown (from UNDI.info) against this estimation, both using the older GE12 roll. The results are very close, with differentials from 0.1% for the Malay component to 1.5% for the Chinese components, at the DUN or parliament level.

• Further, because any estimation bias is likely to be cumulative (not offsetting), a small error at DUN level would mean EVEN SMALLER errors at DM or Saluran level.

Although a practically useful estimation, this is still only a crude estimation.


Table: P014N25 Bukit Selambau Voters - 200902
Ethnic Breakdown - Estimation By a Crude Algorithm. Note postal voters include non-police, absentee voters.

parl/DUN /DM	Sa lu ran	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM	Ma lay	Chi nese	In dian	To tal		% Ma lay	% Chi nese	% In dian	% Total
014/25/01	1	Bukit Selambau	Kuala Sin	SK Kampung Kuala Sin Bukit Selambau	338	1	11	350		96.6%	0.3%	3.1%	100%
014/25/01	2	Bukit Selambau	Kuala Sin	SK Kampung Kuala Sin Bukit Selambau	469	2	10	481		97.5%	0.4%	2.1%	100%
014/25/02	1	Bukit Selambau	Kampung Sungkap	SK Bukit Selambau	489	16	95	600		81.5%	2.7%	15.8%	100%
014/25/03	1	Bukit Selambau	Bukit Lembu	SK Aman Jaya	175	25	350	550		31.8%	4.6%	63.6%	100%
014/25/03	2	Bukit Selambau	Bukit Lembu	SK Aman Jaya	222	14	437	673		33.0%	2.1%	64.9%	100%
014/25/04	0	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	Pos	-	1	-	1		0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100%
014/25/04	1	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	SK Bandar Baru	149	76	125	350		42.6%	21.7%	35.7%	100%
014/25/04	2	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	SK Bandar Baru	409	76	153	638		64.1%	11.9%	24.0%	100%
014/25/04	3	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	SK Bandar Baru	395	70	173	638		61.9%	11.0%	27.1%	100%
014/25/04	4	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	SK Bandar Baru	269	96	273	638		42.2%	15.1%	42.8%	100%
014/25/04	5	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	SK Bandar Baru	257	87	294	638		40.3%	13.6%	46.1%	100%
014/25/04	6	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	SK Bandar Baru	318	58	262	638		49.8%	9.1%	41.1%	100%
014/25/04	7	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	SK Bandar Baru	330	61	248	639		51.6%	9.6%	38.8%	100%
014/25/05	0	Bukit Selambau	Sungai Lalang	Pos	-	-	1	1		0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100%
014/25/05	1	Bukit Selambau	Sungai Lalang	SJKC Chung Hwa	63	219	68	350		18.0%	62.6%	19.4%	100%
014/25/05	2	Bukit Selambau	Sungai Lalang	SJKC Chung Hwa	106	306	133	545		19.5%	56.2%	24.4%	100%
014/25/05	3	Bukit Selambau	Sungai Lalang	SJKC Chung Hwa	139	258	148	545		25.5%	47.3%	27.2%	100%
014/25/05	4	Bukit Selambau	Sungai Lalang	SJKC Chung Hwa	148	230	168	546		27.1%	42.1%	30.8%	100%
014/25/06	1	Bukit Selambau	Taman Desa Aman	SK Sungai Lalang	286	75	89	450		63.6%	16.7%	19.8%	100%
014/25/06	2	Bukit Selambau	Taman Desa Aman	SK Sungai Lalang	526	46	112	684		76.9%	6.7%	16.4%	100%
014/25/06	3	Bukit Selambau	Taman Desa Aman	SK Sungai Lalang	385	103	196	684		56.3%	15.1%	28.7%	100%
014/25/06	4	Bukit Selambau	Taman Desa Aman	SK Sungai Lalang	431	61	204	696		61.9%	8.8%	29.3%	100%
014/25/07	0	Bukit Selambau	Bandar Laguna Merbok	Pos	1	-	-	1		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
014/25/07	1	Bukit Selambau	Bandar Laguna Merbok	SM Teknik Sungai Petani 2	55	59	236	350		15.7%	16.9%	67.4%	100%
014/25/07	2	Bukit Selambau	Bandar Laguna Merbok	SM Teknik Sungai Petani 2	126	199	296	621		20.3%	32.1%	47.7%	100%
014/25/08	0	Bukit Selambau	Tasek Apong	Pos	1	-	-	1		100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
014/25/08	1	Bukit Selambau	Tasek Apong	SK Tasek Apong	212	46	92	350		60.6%	13.1%	26.3%	100%
014/25/08	2	Bukit Selambau	Tasek Apong	SK Tasek Apong	247	102	157	506		48.8%	20.2%	31.0%	100%
014/25/08	3	Bukit Selambau	Tasek Apong	SK Tasek Apong	240	119	148	507		47.3%	23.5%	29.2%	100%
014/25/09	1	Bukit Selambau	Air Menideh	SJKT Saraswathy Sungai Petani	43	217	90	350		12.3%	62.0%	25.7%	100%
014/25/09	2	Bukit Selambau	Air Menideh	SJKT Saraswathy Sungai Petani	95	323	254	672		14.1%	48.1%	37.8%	100%
014/25/09	3	Bukit Selambau	Air Menideh	SJKT Saraswathy Sungai Petani	129	280	264	673		19.2%	41.6%	39.2%	100%
014/25/10	0	Bukit Selambau	Jalan Badlishah	Pos	-	1	-	1		0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	100%
014/25/10	1	Bukit Selambau	Jalan Badlishah	SMK Bandar Sungai Petani	91	147	112	350		26.0%	42.0%	32.0%	100%
014/25/10	2	Bukit Selambau	Jalan Badlishah	SMK Bandar Sungai Petani	193	89	164	446		43.3%	20.0%	36.8%	100%
014/25/11	1	Bukit Selambau	Taman Peruda	Institut Kemahiran Mara Sungai Petani	391	47	112	550		71.1%	8.6%	20.4%	100%
014/25/11	2	Bukit Selambau	Taman Peruda	Institut Kemahiran Mara Sungai Petani	361	100	225	686		52.6%	14.6%	32.8%	100%
014/25/11	3	Bukit Selambau	Taman Peruda	Institut Kemahiran Mara Sungai Petani	454	61	185	700		64.9%	8.7%	26.4%	100%
014/25/12	1	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Utara	SK Taman Ria Sungai Petani	223	100	27	350		63.7%	28.6%	7.7%	100%
014/25/12	2	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Utara	SK Taman Ria Sungai Petani	445	129	57	631		70.5%	20.4%	9.0%	100%
014/25/12	3	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Utara	SK Taman Ria Sungai Petani	347	203	81	631		55.0%	32.2%	12.8%	100%
014/25/12	4	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Utara	SK Taman Ria Sungai Petani	476	100	56	632		75.3%	15.8%	8.9%	100%
014/25/13	1	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	SMK Taman Ria Jaya	105	164	81	350		30.0%	46.9%	23.1%	100%
014/25/13	2	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	SMK Taman Ria Jaya	344	213	124	681		50.5%	31.3%	18.2%	100%
014/25/13	3	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	SMK Taman Ria Jaya	376	176	129	681		55.2%	25.8%	18.9%	100%
014/25/13	4	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	SMK Taman Ria Jaya	338	191	152	681		49.6%	28.1%	22.3%	100%
014/25/13	5	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	SMK Taman Ria Jaya	292	222	167	681		42.9%	32.6%	24.5%	100%
014/25/13	6	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	SMK Taman Ria Jaya	221	251	209	681		32.5%	36.9%	30.7%	100%
014/25/13	7	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	SMK Taman Ria Jaya	236	202	243	681		34.7%	29.7%	35.7%	100%
014/25/13	8	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	SMK Taman Ria Jaya	298	133	255	686		43.4%	19.4%	37.2%	100%
014/25/14	1	Bukit Selambau	United Petani	SJKT Ladang Perbadanan Kedah Sungai Petani	70	12	268	350		20.0%	3.4%	76.6%	100%
014/25/14	2	Bukit Selambau	United Petani	SJKT Ladang Perbadanan Kedah Sungai Petani	169	26	428	623		27.1%	4.2%	68.7%	100%
014/25/15	1	Bukit Selambau	Petani Para	SK Petani Para Sungai Petani	93	14	252	359		25.9%	3.9%	70.2%	100%
014/25/16	1	Bukit Selambau	Bukit Rusa	SJKT Palanisamy Kumaran	154	35	478	667		23.1%	5.3%	71.7%	100%
014/25/17	0	Bukit Selambau	Pekan Bukit Selambau	Pos	7	1	2	10		70.0%	10.0%	20.0%	100%
014/25/17	1	Bukit Selambau	Pekan Bukit Selambau	SJKC Fuh Sun Bukit Selambau	215	102	33	350		61.4%	29.1%	9.4%	100%
014/25/17	2	Bukit Selambau	Pekan Bukit Selambau	SJKC Fuh Sun Bukit Selambau	361	142	42	545		66.2%	26.1%	7.7%	100%
014/25/17	3	Bukit Selambau	Pekan Bukit Selambau	SJKC Fuh Sun Bukit Selambau	374	130	41	545		68.6%	23.9%	7.5%	100%
014/25/17	4	Bukit Selambau	Pekan Bukit Selambau	SJKC Fuh Sun Bukit Selambau	385	75	86	546		70.5%	13.7%	15.8%	100%
014/25/18	1	Bukit Selambau	Kampung Pokok Machang	SMK Bukit Selambau	619	16	61	696		88.9%	2.3%	8.8%	100%
014/25/19	1	Bukit Selambau	Batu Belachan	SK Seri Wangsa Sungai Petani	206	11	133	350		58.9%	3.1%	38.0%	100%
014/25/19	2	Bukit Selambau	Batu Belachan	SK Seri Wangsa Sungai Petani	267	10	158	435		61.4%	2.3%	36.3%	100%
014/25/20	1	Bukit Selambau	Titi Panjang	SK Dataran Muda Sungai Petani	290	43	117	450		64.4%	9.6%	26.0%	100%
014/25/20	2	Bukit Selambau	Titi Panjang	SK Dataran Muda Sungai Petani	514	12	82	608		84.5%	2.0%	13.5%	100%
014/25/21	1	Bukit Selambau	Ambangan Height	SMK Aman Jaya	407	95	145	647		62.9%	14.7%	22.4%	100%
014/25/22	1	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Selatan	SM Sains Sultan Mohamad Jiwa	166	153	31	350		47.4%	43.7%	8.9%	100%
014/25/22	2	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Selatan	SM Sains Sultan Mohamad Jiwa	344	156	36	536		64.2%	29.1%	6.7%	100%
014/25/22	3	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Selatan	SM Sains Sultan Mohamad Jiwa	263	210	63	536		49.1%	39.2%	11.8%	100%
014/25/22	4	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Selatan	SM Sains Sultan Mohamad Jiwa	229	242	65	536		42.7%	45.2%	12.1%	100%
014/25/22	5	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Selatan	SM Sains Sultan Mohamad Jiwa	321	131	84	536		59.9%	24.4%	15.7%	100%
Total					17,698	7,371	10,071	35,140		50.4%	21.0%	28.7%	100%

Note 1: If you cannot see the full table width, try to click Menu>View>zoom out (or Ctrl-Middle-Mouse-Button-Scroll). Alternatively, click-drag to highlight the table, copy, and paste into Excel to view.

Note 2: SM = Sekolah Menengah, SK=Sekolah Kebangsaan, SMK=Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan, SJKC = Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (China), SJKT = Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Tamil), SAR = Sekolah Agama Rakyat.
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Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions

In Batang Air, 237 voters were added and 188 deleted after GE12. Among them were 42 police postal voters, whose police IC numbers were reformatted, making them look like 42 deletions and additions. Most of the changes took place in DMs Ensawang, Jela, Kesit, and Lubok Antu.

Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 42+42 police IC number changes. The sizes of 194 additions and 145 deletions are probably acceptable at 2% over three quarters. Only field verification can tell more. Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification.


Table A shows that, in Batang Air (N29 under P203 Lubok Antu), between 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election):

• Overall, it looks like 237 voters were added and 188 deleted.
• In reality, 42 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 42 police personnel who remained, only having their IC numbering changed,
• These are examples of actual pairs of changed police IC in Batang Air: G0008388>G8388; R0108200>RF108200; R0104156>RF104156; R0060733>RF60733
• Another 1 police voter actually retired/moved out, while another 1 actually moved in
  
• Non-police voter additions totaled 194 during the 3 quarters, and deletions totaled 145,
• The net change was 49 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 8,006.

Table A: P203N29 Batang Air Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview

Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219	Deletions	Additions	Net changes
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees)	145	194	49
Police/military voter - change in IC number format	42	42	0
Police/military voter - real change in registration	1	1	0
Apparent changes in all voters	188	237	49
	20080205	20090219	Difference
Total voter count	7,957	8,006	49

Table B shows that:

• Excluding the police voters, 194 voters were added and 145 deleted, resulting in a net increase of 49 non-police voters.
• Most of the changes took place in the DMs of Ensawang, Jela, Kesit, Lubok Antu.

Table B: P203N29 Batang Air Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel

Does not exist in this electoral roll			20090200	20080205
Exists in this electoral roll			20080205	20090200
Meaning …			Deleted	Added
parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Count	Count
2032901	Batang Air	Sebangki	8	9
2032902	Batang Air	Lubok Antu	14	10
2032903	Batang Air	Sekarok	6	9
2032904	Batang Air	Kesit	12	12
2032905	Batang Air	Engkari	3	1
2032906	Batang Air	Delok	4	5
2032907	Batang Air	Kaong	7	5
2032908	Batang Air	Empit	6	8
2032909	Batang Air	Kumpang	3	1
2032910	Batang Air	Klampu	8	5
2032911	Batang Air	Sayat	9	0
2032912	Batang Air	Kutai	15	6
2032913	Batang Air	Mepi	9	17
2032914	Batang Air	Jela	9	22
2032915	Batang Air	Sempang	3	3
2032916	Batang Air	Bertik	1	5
2032917	Batang Air	Krangan Mong	2	6
2032918	Batang Air	Ensawang	11	21
2032919	Batang Air	Kachong	1	7
2032920	Batang Air	Patoh	2	14
2032921	Batang Air	Bilararap	3	5
2032922	Batang Air	Sepaya	1	8
2032923	Batang Air	Gugu	6	14
2032924	Batang Air	Nenyang	2	1
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters			145	194

Table C shows:

• The added and deleted grouped by age group,
• Not surprisingly, most of the additions were in the 21-29 voter group,
• Most of the deletions were in the 60-79 voter groups.
  

P203N29 Batang Air Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups - 12-DIGIT-IC

Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Deleted in	Added in				Deleted	Added
Group	From	To	20090219?	20090219?	Net	Change %		% of total	% of total
21-29	1979	1987	4	131	127	3175.0%		2.8%	67.5%
30-39	1969	1978	12	32	20	166.7%		8.3%	16.5%
40-49	1959	1968	12	23	11	91.7%		8.3%	11.9%
50-59	1949	1958	13	6	(7)	-53.8%		9.0%	3.1%
60-69	1939	1948	31	1	(30)	-96.8%		21.4%	0.5%
70-79	1929	1938	42	1	(41)	-97.6%		29.0%	0.5%
80-89	1919	1928	25	-	(25)	-100.0%		17.2%	0.0%
90-99	1909	1918	4	-	(4)	-100.0%		2.8%	0.0%
100+	1884	1908	2	-	(2)	-100.0%		1.4%	0.0%
Total			145	194	49	33.8%		100.0%	100.0%

Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:

• 1001 Police IC Changes = 1001 Potential Confusions
• Were 900+ Voters Deleted and Replaced in Permatang Pauh?
• Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4
• Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions
• Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters
  
• Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions
  

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters

In Bukit Selambau, 553 voter ICs were added and 390 voter ICs were deleted after GE12. The most changes took place in a few modern-sounding housing areas. As expected, the largest additions are in the 21-29 age group, and largest deletions in the 71-79 age group.

Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 10 police IC number changes. The size of the the roughly 390-550 regular voter changes over the first 3 quarters of 2008 look normal. Only field verification can tell more. Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification.

What do "Additions" and "Deletions" mean? We have a table here that list the categories under each: Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4


Table A shows that, in Bukit Selambau (N25 under P014 Merbok), between 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election):

• Overall, it looks like 553 voters were added and 390 deleted.
• In reality, 10 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 10 police personnel who remained, only having their IC numbering changed,
• These are examples of actual pairs of changed police IC in Bukit Selambau: R0075654>RF75654; RT007366>RFT7366; R0107927>RF107927; R0102805>RF102805
• Another 2 police voters actually retired or moved out, and were really deleted,
  
• Non-police voter additions totaled 543 during the 3 quarters, and deletions totaled 378,
• The net change was 163 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 35,140.
  

Table A: P014N25 Batu Selambau Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview

Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219	Deletions	Additions	Net changes
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees)	378	543	165
Police/military voter - change in IC number format	10	10	0
Police/military voter - real change in registration	2	0	-2
Apparent changes in all voters	390	553	163
	20080205	20090219	Difference
Total voter count	34,977	35,140	163

Table B shows:

• How many additions and deletions are grouped under each DM (Daerah Mengundi, voting districts),
• The most changes took place in the DMs of Taman Bandar Baru, Taman Ria Jaya, and Taman Ria Selatan.
• Taman Bandar Baru is where we have found a cluster of voters with house numbers, but not street names.
  
• We were worried that such non-specific addresses in what looks like modern housing estate makes it easier to hide any phantom voters. See discussion at No Street Names Despite Modern Housing in Bukit Selambau.
  

Table B: P014N25 Batu Selambau Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel

Does not exist in this electoral roll			20090200	20080205
Exists in this electoral roll			20080205	20090200
Meaning …			Deleted	Added
parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Count	Count
0142501	Bukit Selambau	Kuala Sin	9	5
0142502	Bukit Selambau	Kampung Sungkap	6	2
0142503	Bukit Selambau	Bukit Lembu	25	1
0142504	Bukit Selambau	Taman Bandar Baru	36	89
0142505	Bukit Selambau	Sungai Lalang	21	14
0142506	Bukit Selambau	Taman Desa Aman	20	32
0142507	Bukit Selambau	Bandar Laguna Merbok	4	36
0142508	Bukit Selambau	Tasek Apong	15	38
0142509	Bukit Selambau	Air Menideh	24	14
0142510	Bukit Selambau	Jalan Badlishah	20	1
0142511	Bukit Selambau	Taman Peruda	17	29
0142512	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Utara	14	43
0142513	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Jaya	30	86
0142514	Bukit Selambau	United Petani	18	6
0142515	Bukit Selambau	Petani Para	9	1
0142516	Bukit Selambau	Bukit Rusa	8	3
0142517	Bukit Selambau	Pekan Bukit Selambau	34	28
0142518	Bukit Selambau	Kampung Pokok Machang	8	5
0142519	Bukit Selambau	Batu Belachan	13	0
0142520	Bukit Selambau	Titi Panjang	17	13
0142521	Bukit Selambau	Ambangan Height	2	48
0142522	Bukit Selambau	Taman Ria Selatan	28	49
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters			378	543

Table C shows that:

• Unsurprisingly, the most deletion took place in the 70-79 age group,
• while the most additions took place in the 21-29 age group
  

Table C: P014N25 Bukit Selambau Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups - 12-DIGIT-IC

Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Deleted in	Added in				Deleted	Added
Group	From	To	20090219?	20090219?	Net	Change %		% of total	% of total
21-29	1979	1987	21	310	289	1376.2%		5.6%	57.1%
30-39	1969	1978	28	127	99	353.6%		7.4%	23.4%
40-49	1959	1968	63	57	(6)	-9.5%		16.7%	10.5%
50-59	1949	1958	59	37	(22)	-37.3%		15.6%	6.8%
60-69	1939	1948	74	10	(64)	-86.5%		19.6%	1.8%
70-79	1929	1938	79	2	(77)	-97.5%		20.9%	0.4%
80-89	1919	1928	40	-	(40)	-100.0%		10.6%	0.0%
90-99	1909	1918	10	-	(10)	-100.0%		2.6%	0.0%
100+	1884	1908	4	-	(4)	-100.0%		1.1%	0.0%
Total			378	543	165	43.7%		100.0%	100.0%

Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:

• 1001 Police IC Changes = 1001 Potential Confusions
• Were 900+ Voters Deleted and Replaced in Permatang Pauh?
• Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4
• Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions
• Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters
  
• Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions
  

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions

In Bukit Gantang, 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 voter ICs were deleted after GE12. But 128 of these additions and deletions are actually the same police voters having their IC number format changed. The most changes took place in Changkat Jering DUN. The largest additions are in the 21-29 age group, and largest deletions in the 71-79 age group.

Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 128 police IC number changes. As for the roughly 900 regular voter additions and deletions over the first 3 quarters of 2008, the size of changes do not look abnormal. Only field verification can tell more.

Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification. They can be broken down by:

• DUN, DM, TM, streams, or localities
• Age
• postal vs non-postal voters
• postal voters who have their ICs changed, or real changes (move-ins and move-outs).

Where do these data come from?

• We compare 2 electoral rolls, data as of 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election),
• We trawled the data for voter IC which exist in the older GE12 roll, but do not exist in the newer by-election rolls. These are the "deleted" voters,
• We trawled for the voter IC which exist in the newer by-election rolls, but do not exist in the the older GE12 roll. These are the "added" voters,

Table A shows that, in Bukit Gantang (P029):

• Overall, it looks like 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 deleted.
• In reality, 128 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 128 police personnel who remained in Bukit Gantang, only having their IC numbering changed,
  
• Examples of actual pairs of changed police IC: RT008120>RFT8120; RT009431>RFT9431; R0091282>RF91282; R0101133>RF101133
• Non-police voter additions (new registrations, moved in) totaled 920 during the 3 quarters, and deletions (moved out, death, other reasons) totaled 829,
• The net change was 91 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 55,562.

Table A: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview

Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219	Deletions	Additions	Net changes
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees)	829	920	91
Police/military voter - change in IC number format	128	128	0
Police/military voter - real change in registration	0	0	0
Apparent changes in all voters	957	1,048	91
	20080205	20090219	Difference
Total voter count	55,471	55,562	91

Table B shows:

• How voter additions and deletions are grouped into locations, by DM and DUN,
• This table contains only voters with 12-digit ICs (include postal voters who are absentee, non-police, non-military, voters).
  
• Changkat Jering has the largest number of changes, followed by Kuala Sapetang.
• In Changkat Jering, the 3 DMs with the most changes are Pengkalan Aor, Jalan Simpang, and Larut Tin.
  

Table B: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel

Does not exist in this electoral roll			20090200	20080205
Exists in this electoral roll			20080205	20090200
Meaning …			Deleted	Added
parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Count	Count
0591301	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	22	63
0591302	Kuala Sapetang	Ayer Puteh	12	12
0591303	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	21	68
0591304	Kuala Sapetang	Jebong	39	22
0591305	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	38	44
0591306	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Menteri	23	23
0591307	Kuala Sapetang	Matang Gelugor	6	4
0591308	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Limau	6	6
0591309	Kuala Sapetang	Jalan Mangala	27	22
0591310	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Jaha	5	4
0591311	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Mati	10	10
0591312	Kuala Sapetang	Bendang Siam	21	9
0591313	Kuala Sapetang	Changkat Ibol	33	32
Subtotal	Kuala Sapetang		263	319
0591401	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	47	80
0591402	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	25	48
0591403	Changkat Jering	Simpang Baru	20	23
0591404	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	34	81
0591405	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	49	66
0591406	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	38	77
0591407	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	39	58
0591408	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	31	38
0591409	Changkat Jering	Jelutong	16	15
0591410	Changkat Jering	Bukit Gantang	32	11
0591411	Changkat Jering	Kampong Cheh	26	5
Subtotal	Changkat Jering		357	502
0591501	Trong	Kuala Trong	11	10
0591502	Trong	Pasir Hitam Trong	7	0
0591503	Trong	Kampong Tebok Trong	6	2
0591504	Trong	Trong	18	5
0591505	Trong	Trong Barat	13	8
0591506	Trong	Bukit Gantang Selatan	18	4
0591507	Trong	Ayer Terjun	15	3
0591508	Trong	Temelok	15	5
0591509	Trong	Sungai Che Rahmat	5	2
0591510	Trong	Permatang Raja	21	20
0591511	Trong	Sungai Tinggi	28	24
0591512	Trong	Padang Gajah	30	6
0591513	Trong	Batu Hampar	16	9
0591514	Trong	Sungai Rotan	6	1
Subtotal	Trong		209	99
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters			829	920

Table C shows that:

• Of the 829 deletion, the most deletions occur in the age groups of 50-89,
• Of the 920 addition, nearly 600 came from the 21-29 age group.
• This table includes only the 12-digit-IC (non-police) voters.
  

Table C: P059 Bukit Gantang Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups

Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Deleted in	Added in				Deleted	Added
Group	From	To	20090219?	20090219?	Net	Change %		% of total	% of total
21-29	1979	1987	17	596	579	3405.9%		2.1%	64.8%
30-39	1969	1978	69	180	111	160.9%		8.3%	19.6%
40-49	1959	1968	72	90	18	25.0%		8.7%	9.8%
50-59	1949	1958	124	34	(90)	-72.6%		15.0%	3.7%
60-69	1939	1948	162	16	(146)	-90.1%		19.5%	1.7%
70-79	1929	1938	200	3	(197)	-98.5%		24.1%	0.3%
80-89	1919	1928	127	1	(126)	-99.2%		15.3%	0.1%
90-99	1909	1918	27	-	(27)	-100.0%		3.3%	0.0%
100+	1884	1908	31	-	(31)	-100.0%		3.7%	0.0%
Total			829	920	91	11.0%		100.0%	100.0%

Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:

• 1001 Police IC Changes = 1001 Potential Confusions
• Were 900+ Voters Deleted and Replaced in Permatang Pauh?
• Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4
• Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions
• Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters
  
• Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions
  
  

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.