2009-03-29

Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions

In Bukit Gantang, 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 voter ICs were deleted after GE12. But 128 of these additions and deletions are actually the same police voters having their IC number format changed. The most changes took place in Changkat Jering DUN. The largest additions are in the 21-29 age group, and largest deletions in the 71-79 age group.

Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 128 police IC number changes. As for the roughly 900 regular voter additions and deletions over the first 3 quarters of 2008, the size of changes do not look abnormal. Only field verification can tell more.

Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification. They can be broken down by:

  • DUN, DM, TM, streams, or localities
  • Age
  • postal vs non-postal voters
  • postal voters who have their ICs changed, or real changes (move-ins and move-outs).

Where do these data come from?
  • We compare 2 electoral rolls, data as of 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election),
  • We trawled the data for voter IC which exist in the older GE12 roll, but do not exist in the newer by-election rolls. These are the "deleted" voters,
  • We trawled for the voter IC which exist in the newer by-election rolls, but do not exist in the the older GE12 roll. These are the "added" voters,


Table A shows that, in Bukit Gantang (P029):
  • Overall, it looks like 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 deleted.
  • In reality, 128 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 128 police personnel who remained in Bukit Gantang, only having their IC numbering changed,
  • Examples of actual pairs of changed police IC: RT008120>RFT8120; RT009431>RFT9431; R0091282>RF91282; R0101133>RF101133
  • Non-police voter additions (new registrations, moved in) totaled 920 during the 3 quarters, and deletions (moved out, death, other reasons) totaled 829,
  • The net change was 91 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 55,562.
Table A: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview
Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219DeletionsAdditionsNet changes
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees)82992091
Police/military voter - change in IC number format1281280
Police/military voter - real change in registration000
Apparent changes in all voters 957 1,048 91

2008020520090219Difference
Total voter count 55,471 55,562 91


Table B shows:
  • How voter additions and deletions are grouped into locations, by DM and DUN,
  • This table contains only voters with 12-digit ICs (include postal voters who are absentee, non-police, non-military, voters).
  • Changkat Jering has the largest number of changes, followed by Kuala Sapetang.
  • In Changkat Jering, the 3 DMs with the most changes are Pengkalan Aor, Jalan Simpang, and Larut Tin.
Table B: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel

Does not exist in this electoral roll2009020020080205
Exists in this electoral roll2008020520090200
Meaning …DeletedAdded
parl/DUN/DMNamaDUNNamaDMCountCount
0591301Kuala SapetangKamunting Station2263
0591302Kuala SapetangAyer Puteh1212
0591303Kuala SapetangSimpang Halt2168
0591304Kuala SapetangJebong3922
0591305Kuala SapetangKuala Sapetang3844
0591306Kuala SapetangKampong Menteri2323
0591307Kuala SapetangMatang Gelugor64
0591308Kuala SapetangSungai Limau66
0591309Kuala SapetangJalan Mangala2722
0591310Kuala SapetangKampong Jaha54
0591311Kuala SapetangSungai Mati1010
0591312Kuala SapetangBendang Siam219
0591313Kuala SapetangChangkat Ibol3332
SubtotalKuala Sapetang
263319
0591401Changkat JeringPengkalan Aor4780
0591402Changkat JeringSimpang Lama2548
0591403Changkat JeringSimpang Baru2023
0591404Changkat JeringJalan Simpang3481
0591405Changkat JeringKawasan J.K.R4966
0591406Changkat JeringLarut Tin3877
0591407Changkat JeringAyer Kuning3958
0591408Changkat JeringChangkat Jering3138
0591409Changkat JeringJelutong1615
0591410Changkat JeringBukit Gantang3211
0591411Changkat JeringKampong Cheh265
SubtotalChangkat Jering
357502
0591501TrongKuala Trong1110
0591502TrongPasir Hitam Trong70
0591503TrongKampong Tebok Trong62
0591504TrongTrong185
0591505TrongTrong Barat138
0591506TrongBukit Gantang Selatan184
0591507TrongAyer Terjun153
0591508TrongTemelok155
0591509TrongSungai Che Rahmat52
0591510TrongPermatang Raja2120
0591511TrongSungai Tinggi2824
0591512TrongPadang Gajah306
0591513TrongBatu Hampar169
0591514TrongSungai Rotan61
SubtotalTrong
20999
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters829920


Table C shows that:
  • Of the 829 deletion, the most deletions occur in the age groups of 50-89,
  • Of the 920 addition, nearly 600 came from the 21-29 age group.
  • This table includes only the 12-digit-IC (non-police) voters.
Table C: P059 Bukit Gantang Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups
AgeTahunlahirTahunlahirDeleted inAdded in


DeletedAdded
GroupFromTo20090219?20090219?NetChange %
% of total% of total
21-2919791987 17 596 5793405.9%
2.1%64.8%
30-3919691978 69 180 111160.9%
8.3%19.6%
40-4919591968 72 90 1825.0%
8.7%9.8%
50-5919491958 124 34 (90)-72.6%
15.0%3.7%
60-6919391948 162 16 (146)-90.1%
19.5%1.7%
70-7919291938 200 3 (197)-98.5%
24.1%0.3%
80-8919191928 127 1 (126)-99.2%
15.3%0.1%
90-9919091918 27 - (27)-100.0%
3.3%0.0%
100+18841908 31 - (31)-100.0%
3.7%0.0%
Total

829 920 9111.0%
100.0%100.0%


Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:

1 comment:

Kah Seng said...

Wanita UMNO came up with the idea that 5000 voters are missing in Bukit Gantang.

http://nikhassanazmi.blogspot.com/2009/03/p59-bukit-gantang-pas-ragui-dakwaan.html
http://www.harakahdaily.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=20102&Itemid=1
Wanita Umno kesan 5,000 pemilih hilang
http://mstar.com.my/berita/cerita.asp?file=/2009/3/30/mstar_berita/20090330164246&sec=mstar_berita

I don't think so.

I don't think 5000 voters went missing, at least not between GE12 and the by-election rolls. Whatever they are referring to, they need to tell what time frame they are talking about.

I have 3 new articles here that examine the changes in voters between GE12 and by-election.

Bukit Gantang
MALVU - SPR Data Watch: Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions

Bukit Selambau
MALVU - SPR Data Watch: Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters

Batang Air
MALVU - SPR Data Watch: Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions

The GE12 data are up to 2007 Dec 31, gazetted on 2008 Feb 5, for the 2008 Mar 8 GE. The by-election data are, as far as I can tell, data up to 2008 Sep 30, gazetted 2009 Feb 19 (a bit slow), for by-election of 209 Apr 7.

But there is some strangeness in the way Bukit Gantang is delineated to extend northeast, into the expressway area, outskirt of west Taiping, where there are more population.