In Bukit Gantang, 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 voter ICs were deleted after GE12. But 128 of these additions and deletions are actually the same police voters having their IC number format changed. The most changes took place in Changkat Jering DUN. The largest additions are in the 21-29 age group, and largest deletions in the 71-79 age group.
Is there anything sinister in these data? Not on the 128 police IC number changes. As for the roughly 900 regular voter additions and deletions over the first 3 quarters of 2008, the size of changes do not look abnormal. Only field verification can tell more.
Detailed lists of additions/deletions on a voter-by-voter basis are available for field verification. They can be broken down by:
- DUN, DM, TM, streams, or localities
- Age
- postal vs non-postal voters
- postal voters who have their ICs changed, or real changes (move-ins and move-outs).
Where do these data come from?
- We compare 2 electoral rolls, data as of 2007 Dec 31 (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 for GE12) and 2008 Sep 30 (gazetted on 2009 Feb 19? for by-election),
- We trawled the data for voter IC which exist in the older GE12 roll, but do not exist in the newer by-election rolls. These are the "deleted" voters,
- We trawled for the voter IC which exist in the newer by-election rolls, but do not exist in the the older GE12 roll. These are the "added" voters,
Table A shows that, in Bukit Gantang (P029):
- Overall, it looks like 1,048 voter ICs were added and 957 deleted.
- In reality, 128 of these additions and deletions are "illusions." These are 128 police personnel who remained in Bukit Gantang, only having their IC numbering changed,
- Examples of actual pairs of changed police IC: RT008120>RFT8120; RT009431>RFT9431; R0091282>RF91282; R0101133>RF101133
- Non-police voter additions (new registrations, moved in) totaled 920 during the 3 quarters, and deletions (moved out, death, other reasons) totaled 829,
- The net change was 91 additional voters over 3 quarters, increasing the total voter count to 55,562.
Table A: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
Overview
Breakdown of changes 20080205-20090219 | Deletions | Additions | Net changes |
Voters with 12-digit Ics (incl absentees) | 829 | 920 | 91 |
Police/military voter - change in IC number format | 128 | 128 | 0 |
Police/military voter - real change in registration | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Apparent changes in all voters | 957 | 1,048 | 91 |
| 20080205 | 20090219 | Difference |
Total voter count | 55,471 | 55,562 | 91 |
Table B shows:
- How voter additions and deletions are grouped into locations, by DM and DUN,
- This table contains only voters with 12-digit ICs (include postal voters who are absentee, non-police, non-military, voters).
- Changkat Jering has the largest number of changes, followed by Kuala Sapetang.
- In Changkat Jering, the 3 DMs with the most changes are Pengkalan Aor, Jalan Simpang, and Larut Tin.
Table B: P059 Bukit Gantang Addition and Deletion of Voters 20080205-200902
All voters with 12-Digit ICs - Excluding Police and Military Personnel
Does not exist in this electoral roll | 20090200 | 20080205 |
Exists in this electoral roll | 20080205 | 20090200 |
Meaning … | Deleted | Added |
parl/DUN/DM | NamaDUN | NamaDM | Count | Count |
0591301 | Kuala Sapetang | Kamunting Station | 22 | 63 |
0591302 | Kuala Sapetang | Ayer Puteh | 12 | 12 |
0591303 | Kuala Sapetang | Simpang Halt | 21 | 68 |
0591304 | Kuala Sapetang | Jebong | 39 | 22 |
0591305 | Kuala Sapetang | Kuala Sapetang | 38 | 44 |
0591306 | Kuala Sapetang | Kampong Menteri | 23 | 23 |
0591307 | Kuala Sapetang | Matang Gelugor | 6 | 4 |
0591308 | Kuala Sapetang | Sungai Limau | 6 | 6 |
0591309 | Kuala Sapetang | Jalan Mangala | 27 | 22 |
0591310 | Kuala Sapetang | Kampong Jaha | 5 | 4 |
0591311 | Kuala Sapetang | Sungai Mati | 10 | 10 |
0591312 | Kuala Sapetang | Bendang Siam | 21 | 9 |
0591313 | Kuala Sapetang | Changkat Ibol | 33 | 32 |
Subtotal | Kuala Sapetang |
| 263 | 319 |
0591401 | Changkat Jering | Pengkalan Aor | 47 | 80 |
0591402 | Changkat Jering | Simpang Lama | 25 | 48 |
0591403 | Changkat Jering | Simpang Baru | 20 | 23 |
0591404 | Changkat Jering | Jalan Simpang | 34 | 81 |
0591405 | Changkat Jering | Kawasan J.K.R | 49 | 66 |
0591406 | Changkat Jering | Larut Tin | 38 | 77 |
0591407 | Changkat Jering | Ayer Kuning | 39 | 58 |
0591408 | Changkat Jering | Changkat Jering | 31 | 38 |
0591409 | Changkat Jering | Jelutong | 16 | 15 |
0591410 | Changkat Jering | Bukit Gantang | 32 | 11 |
0591411 | Changkat Jering | Kampong Cheh | 26 | 5 |
Subtotal | Changkat Jering |
| 357 | 502 |
0591501 | Trong | Kuala Trong | 11 | 10 |
0591502 | Trong | Pasir Hitam Trong | 7 | 0 |
0591503 | Trong | Kampong Tebok Trong | 6 | 2 |
0591504 | Trong | Trong | 18 | 5 |
0591505 | Trong | Trong Barat | 13 | 8 |
0591506 | Trong | Bukit Gantang Selatan | 18 | 4 |
0591507 | Trong | Ayer Terjun | 15 | 3 |
0591508 | Trong | Temelok | 15 | 5 |
0591509 | Trong | Sungai Che Rahmat | 5 | 2 |
0591510 | Trong | Permatang Raja | 21 | 20 |
0591511 | Trong | Sungai Tinggi | 28 | 24 |
0591512 | Trong | Padang Gajah | 30 | 6 |
0591513 | Trong | Batu Hampar | 16 | 9 |
0591514 | Trong | Sungai Rotan | 6 | 1 |
Subtotal | Trong |
| 209 | 99 |
Subtotal - non-police, 12-digit-IC voters | 829 | 920 |
Table C shows that:
- Of the 829 deletion, the most deletions occur in the age groups of 50-89,
- Of the 920 addition, nearly 600 came from the 21-29 age group.
- This table includes only the 12-digit-IC (non-police) voters.
Table C: P059 Bukit Gantang Voters - 12-DIGIT-IC Only
Additions and Deletions in 200902 Roll by Age Groups Age | Tahunlahir | Tahunlahir | Deleted in | Added in |
|
|
| Deleted | Added |
Group | From | To | 20090219? | 20090219? | Net | Change % |
| % of total | % of total |
21-29 | 1979 | 1987 | 17 | 596 | 579 | 3405.9% |
| 2.1% | 64.8% |
30-39 | 1969 | 1978 | 69 | 180 | 111 | 160.9% |
| 8.3% | 19.6% |
40-49 | 1959 | 1968 | 72 | 90 | 18 | 25.0% |
| 8.7% | 9.8% |
50-59 | 1949 | 1958 | 124 | 34 | (90) | -72.6% |
| 15.0% | 3.7% |
60-69 | 1939 | 1948 | 162 | 16 | (146) | -90.1% |
| 19.5% | 1.7% |
70-79 | 1929 | 1938 | 200 | 3 | (197) | -98.5% |
| 24.1% | 0.3% |
80-89 | 1919 | 1928 | 127 | 1 | (126) | -99.2% |
| 15.3% | 0.1% |
90-99 | 1909 | 1918 | 27 | - | (27) | -100.0% |
| 3.3% | 0.0% |
100+ | 1884 | 1908 | 31 | - | (31) | -100.0% |
| 3.7% | 0.0% |
Total |
|
| 829 | 920 | 91 | 11.0% |
| 100.0% | 100.0% |
Related articles on voter changes, police IC number formats:
1 comment:
Wanita UMNO came up with the idea that 5000 voters are missing in Bukit Gantang.
http://nikhassanazmi.blogspot.com/2009/03/p59-bukit-gantang-pas-ragui-dakwaan.html
http://www.harakahdaily.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=20102&Itemid=1
Wanita Umno kesan 5,000 pemilih hilang
http://mstar.com.my/berita/cerita.asp?file=/2009/3/30/mstar_berita/20090330164246&sec=mstar_berita
I don't think so.
I don't think 5000 voters went missing, at least not between GE12 and the by-election rolls. Whatever they are referring to, they need to tell what time frame they are talking about.
I have 3 new articles here that examine the changes in voters between GE12 and by-election.
Bukit Gantang
MALVU - SPR Data Watch: Bukit Gantang changes - 1048 Additions and 957 Deletions
Bukit Selambau
MALVU - SPR Data Watch: Bukit Selambau Changes - 553 additional and 390 deleted voters
Batang Air
MALVU - SPR Data Watch: Batang Air Changes - 237 Additions and 188 Deletions
The GE12 data are up to 2007 Dec 31, gazetted on 2008 Feb 5, for the 2008 Mar 8 GE. The by-election data are, as far as I can tell, data up to 2008 Sep 30, gazetted 2009 Feb 19 (a bit slow), for by-election of 209 Apr 7.
But there is some strangeness in the way Bukit Gantang is delineated to extend northeast, into the expressway area, outskirt of west Taiping, where there are more population.
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