Permatang Pauh Official Electoral Roll - An Overview

We summarize the official electoral roll for Permatang Pauh P044.

How was this electoral roll built? We believe the SPR has constructed this official by-election voters' roll (said to be dated 2008 July 31) from these building blocks:

• The electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Jun 19, based on 2008 March 31 (2008Q1) data
• Delete dead voters, moved-out, and other deletion-type, voters reported as of 2008 Jun 30 (2008Q2), ungazetted voters roll
• Delete further any voters aged 100-year-old and older.

Step 3 raises the question whether proper procedures have been followed to verify the deletion, or voters 100 or more years old have simply been deleted.

What Table A below tells us:

• Permatang Pauh contains 3 state assembly seats (DUNs)
• It contains 28 voting districts (DM or Daerah Mengundi),
  
• But it contains only 25 polling or voting stations (TM, or Tempat Mengundi), because 3 paris of DMs shared TMs.
• There is a total of 420 localities or street area, or police stations (or army camps).
• There are 58,459 voters, made up of 57,969 non-postal voters and 490 postal voters.
  

Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh - An Overview

The Number of …
DUN or State Assembly Seats	3
DM or Voting Districts	28
TM or Voting/Polling Station	25
Lokaliti or Localities	420
Non-postal voters	57,969
Postal voters	490
Total Voters	58,459

What Table B below tells us:

• This is a by-election at the parliamentary level, and not DUN level, but voters are still organized under 3 DUNs.
  
• Seberang Jaya is the largest DUN, with 39% of the voters,
• Penanti is the smallest DUN, only 2/3 the size of SJ.
• There are 28 voting districts (DM), excluding postal voters,
• There are 110 voting streams (Saluran), excluding postal voters.

Table B: P044 Permatang Pauh - Voters Broken Down by DUN

Parl/DUN code	NamaDUN State Seat Name	Voters	Percentage	DM Voting Districts	Saluran Voting Streams
044/10	Seberang Jaya	22,790	39.0%	9	39
044/11	Permatang Pasir	20,289	34.7%	9	39
044/12	Penanti	15,380	26.3%	10	32
P044	Total	58,459	100.0%	28	110

Table C below shows:

• The names for 28 voting district (DM),
  
• The name for 25 voting station (TM), because those DMs in red shared the same TMs,
  
• The number of voters, ranging from 509 to 3,100 voters per DM.
• The weight of voters of each voting district (DM), ranging from 0.9% to 5.3% of total,
  

• The number of voting stream (Saluran) per DM, from 1 to mostly 5.
• Note that TM "Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri" contains 10 voting streams because it is shared by two DMs (5TM+5TM).
  
• There are two other TMs with 8 and 7 voting streams for similar reason.

• We can predict that old voters in such large TMs may be required to climb upstairs to vote. The three largest TMs are shared by two DMs each. Hopefully, there will be 10 class rooms on the ground floor to accommodate all the voting streams.
  
• If there are not enough classrooms on the ground floor, voters from the first DM may be assigned to voting streams on ground floor, while voters from the second DM may be assigned upstairs.
  
• In this case, even though the electoral roll attempts to arrange older voters (lower IC #) in the first few voting streams (Saluran), they are queued in front only on the upper floors.
  
• The solution is for SPR to split the voting center vertically (left side for one DM and right side for the others), instead of horizontally.
  

• You can also click under the "TM / Voting Station" for map links to each voting station (TM).
  

Table C: P044 Permatang Pauh Non-Postal Voters Broken Down by Voting District (28 NamaDM)

Parl/ DUN/ DM	Nama DUN / State Assembly Seat	NamaDM / Voting District	TM / Voting Station (Click link for map)	Voters	Per cent	Sa lu ran	Sha red TM?
044/10/01	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Sembilang	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya	2,933	5.1%	5
044/10/02	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya II	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri	2,966	5.1%	5	Shared
044/10/03	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Pertama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Tok Kandu	1,607	2.8%	3
044/10/04	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Belah Dua	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Pauh Jaya Taman Pauh	2,168	3.7%	4
044/10/05	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya I	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya Persiaran Siakap	3,100	5.3%	5
044/10/06	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Bahru	Sekolah Kebangsaan Jalan Baharu	2,274	3.9%	4
044/10/07	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Permatang Rawa	2,223	3.8%	4
044/10/08	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Tuna	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri	2,926	5.0%	5	Shared
044/10/09	Seberang Jaya	Taman Tun Hussein Onn	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Tun Hussien Onn	2,127	3.7%	4
044/10	Subtotal			22,324	38.5%	39
044/11/01	Permatang Pasir	Sama Gagah	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Sama Gagah	2,774	4.8%	5
044/11/02	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Ara	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Pasir	2,980	5.1%	5
044/11/03	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Pauh	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Pauh	1,759	3.0%	4
044/11/04	Permatang Pasir	Bukit Indra Muda	Sekolah Kebangsaan Bukit Indera Muda	2,750	4.7%	5
044/11/05	Permatang Pasir	Kampong Pelet	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Kubang Semang Jalan Kepala Batas	1,750	3.0%	4
044/11/06	Permatang Pasir	Kubang Semang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti	1,424	2.5%	3	Shared
044/11/07	Permatang Pasir	Tanah Liat Mukim 8	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti	2,175	3.8%	4	Shared
044/11/08	Permatang Pasir	Kampong Cross Street 2	Sekolah Rendah Islam Al Masriyah Jalan Abdul Kadir	2,179	3.8%	4
044/11/09	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Tengah	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Lay Keow Permatang Pauh	2,497	4.3%	5
044/11	Subtotal			20,288	35.0%	39
044/12/01	Penanti	Guar Perahu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	1,907	3.3%	4
044/12/02	Penanti	Kuala Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	2,727	4.7%	5
044/12/03	Penanti	Telok Wang	Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda	599	1.0%	1
044/12/04	Penanti	Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	1,901	3.3%	4
044/12/05	Penanti	Sungai Lembu	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu	509	0.9%	1
044/12/06	Penanti	Penanti	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	1,061	1.8%	3
044/12/07	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Penanti	1,400	2.4%	3
044/12/08	Penanti	Sungai Semambu	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	1,872	3.2%	4	Shared
044/12/09	Penanti	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	1,920	3.3%	4	Shared
044/12/10	Penanti	Berapit Road	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit	1,461	2.5%	3
	Subtotal			15,357	26.5%	32
P044	Total			57,969	100.0%	110

Note:

• We are not sure about the map locations for "Sekolah Rendah Islam Al Masriyah Jalan Abdul Kadir" (try tel: 04 538 5126, 04 521 5126), "Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda," and "Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu" (A.K.A. SJK(C) Kg. Sg. Lembu, try tel: 04 521 1795).
• Please inform us about any map location mistakes.
• You can look up this PDF file for Penang schools' telephone numbers: http://www.moe.gov.my/emis/emis2/emisportal2/doc/fckeditor/File/senarai_sek_08/rendah/SekRen08_PP.pdf

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P044 By-Election: 2008Q1 Roll Gazetted Jun 19, With Further Deletions

For the Permatang Pauh by-election, SPR is using 2008Q1 supplemental voters roll gazetted on June 19, appended to 20080205-gazetted data used in the 12th GE, but further deleting dead and move-out voters up to 2008Q2 or 2008 Jul 31

In its press release partially quoted below, SPR is describing a set of electoral roll that is close to our pro-forma electoral roll, except SPR further deletes dead voters and moved-out voters updated to either 2008Q2 or 2008 Jul 31. The further deletion of dead voters and move-outs, based on the ungazetted changes in 2008Q2, explains why the total number of 58,459 voters is lower than our pro-forma estimate of 58,761.

It sounds like new voters registered in April, May, June will not be able to vote. But dead voters and move-outs updates in the same months of April, May, June, will be deleted from the 2008-Jun-19-gazetted data (data as of 2008Q1).

There are several dates involved in any one roll:

(a) date of data: 2008 Mar 31 (incoporating 2008Q1 supplemental roll)
(b) date of gazette: 2008 Jun 19
(c) date of partial additional changes: 2008 Jul 31 (to delete further dead voters and move-outs, based on ungazetted changes in 2008Q2 up to June 30, perhaps even up to July 31).

If the above understanding is correct, then SPR is being conservative. Perhaps even over-conservative to the extent of using 2008Q1 data, but further deleting ungazetted dead voters and move-outs from 2008Q2. If this guess is correct, we have less to worry about recently-imported phantoms.

Voters verification specifically for the P044 by-election http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/permatangpauh/prayakecil.aspx

Quoted from SPR statement at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/Pengumuman/kenyataan_akhbar.htm

4.1 Tarikh Writ dikeluarkan : 7 OGOS 2008

4.2 Tarikh Notis dikeluarkan : 8 OGOS 2008

4.3 Tarikh Penamaan Calon : 16 OGOS 2008

4.4 Tarikh Pengundian : 26 OGOS 2008
(Jika ada pertandingan)

5. Bagi tujuan pilihan raya kecil ini, menurut Peraturan 9 Peraturan-Peraturan Pilihan Raya (Pendaftaran Pemilih) 2002, Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya menentukan bahawa Daftar Pemilih Induk 2007 yang diwartakan pada 5 Februari 2008 dan Daftar Pemilih Tambahan Suku Tahun Pertama tahun 2008 yang diwartakan pada 19 Jun 2008 dan dikemaskinikan sehingga 31 Julai 2008, hendaklah digunakan dalam pilihan raya kecil P.44 Permatang Pauh ini. Seramai 58,459 pemilih yang terdiri daripada 57,969 pemilih biasa dan 490 pemilih pos adalah layak untuk mengundi dalam pilihan raya kecil bagi P.44 Permatang Pauh ini.
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What's the rush to use the undisplayed, unverified, ungazetted July 31 electoral roll?

Why is SPR using the July 31 electoral roll that has never been displayed for voters to verify, and has not been gazetted, for the Permatang Pauh by-election, when even the earlier June 30 roll has not yet been gazetted?

Less than two weeks ago in late July, SPR displayed the supplemental rolls with data updated to Jun 30 (2008Q2). But even this roll has yet not been gazetted. On SPR's site at http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/, what you see as of today is the electoral roll with data only updated to Mar 31 (2008Q1) gazetted as of June 19.

So now SPR is skipping the ungazetted 2008 Jun 30 data to use Jul 31 data? What's the rush to use an undisplayed, unverified, ungazetted electoral roll?
Following is Bernama report on the electoral roll:

Permatang Pauh Voters Urged To Check Updated Electoral Roll August 06, 2008 18:27 PM PENANG, Aug 6 (Bernama) -- The Election Commission (EC) will be using electoral roll updated until July 31 for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary by-election on Aug 26. State deputy director Ilyani Farha Mohammad urged voters in Permatang Pauh to check the electoral roll via its website http://www.spr.gov.my. "In the March 8 general election, Permatang Pauh parliamentary had 58,449 voters, increasing to 58,459, after it was updated on July 31," she told Bernama here today. EC also set up 28 polling centres for the last general election. Ilyani said for the coming Permatang Pauh by-election, there will be two changes to the polling centres. The one at Maktab Adabi, Jalan Abdul Kadir will be changed to Sekolah Rendah Islam Al-Masriyah, Jalan Abdul Kadir while the one at Dewan Kelas (KAFA) Kampung Tun Sardon, Ara Kuda will be changed to Dewan Orang Ramai, Kampung Tun Sardon. "We urge the public to take note of these changes and will be putting up notices soon," she said. Maktab Perguruan Tuanku Bainun will be retained as the nomination and ballot counting centre. Ilyani said the state EC office was making preparations for the by-election and will be using the equipments used during the March 8 general election. EC has fixed Aug 16 as the nomination day and Aug 26 as polling day for the Permatang Pauh by-election. -- BERNAMA

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Pro Forma Electoral Roll for P044 for 2008Q1

"Pro Forma," or projected, electoral roll will speed planning and by-election monitoring at P044, Permatang Pauh

What we don't have (as of 5/8/08), don't know, or will find out too late:

• We don't yet know which electoral roll SPR will use for the P044 by-election. Will it be the roll gazetted on 2008 Jun 19 that incorporated 2008Q1 voter changes, or some version that incorporates 2008Q2 changes, to be gazetted in late August?
• We don't have the finalized version of the 2008 Jun 19 electoral roll,
• We don't have the 2008Q2 electoral changes (supplementary roll).

However, we do have the 20080205-gazetted full roll and the 2008Q1 supplemental roll, and I can append the latter to the former, to create a "pro forma" version of the 2008 Jun 19 electoral roll, specifically for P044 Permatang Pauh.

Such a "pro forma" electoral roll for P044 is useful, because:

• The campaign period will be very short,
  
• We don't have to wait for SPR to distribute the roll in CD and MS Access file,
• We don't have to wait to process the SPR's MS Access file,
• We can immediately start to list the Daerah Mengundi, Tempat Mengundi, and other details, to work with election monitoring volunteers
  

However, such a "pro forma" roll has its drawbacks:

• It may contain minor errors in voter names,
• It may not reflect additions or changes in Tempat Mengundi and the schools used, compared to the recent 2008 Mar 2, 12th General Election.
• While we project for the roll to include 2008Q1 changes, the SPR may go further and incorporate 2008Q2 voter changes (which we do not have).
  

But making use of our "pro forma" electoral roll, below we compare changes in voters, localities, postal voters, etc, between the 11th GE (2004) and the quarter of 2008Q1:

Table A: P044 - Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, Pulau Pinang

	2004/03/02	2008/02/05	2008Q1	20080619
	11th GE	12th GE	voter changes	pro forma
DUN, state assembly seats	3	3	3	3
DM, voting districts	25	28	28	28
TM, voting stations		25		25
Lokaliti, localities	403	419	218	420
Postal voters	91	492	1	491
All voters	54,041	58,449	658	58,761
Change voter		4,408		312
Change %		8.2%		0.5%
2008Q1 Changes in Supplementary Roll for P044
Addition into list - New registration			373
Addition into list - Change of address registration (move in)			112
Deletion from list - Voter change address (move out)			-84
Deletion from list - Death			-89
Total count of voters			658
Net changes in voters			312

Comments on Table A

• Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, P044, of Pulau Pinang has 3 DUNS (state assembly seats), a number that has not changed since 2004, namely
  
  • 044/10 Seberang Jaya
  • 044/11 Permatang Pasir
  • 044/12 Penanti
• Voting districts (Daerah Mengundi), however, has apparently increased from 25 in 2004 to 28 now. We will list the DM in a future post.
• We only have data on the Polling Stations (Tempat Mengundi) for 2008/02/05 data, and there are 25 TMs, meaning 3 of the 28 DMs are sharing TM with other DMs.

Localities

• Localities are streets, army camps, or postal locations. The number of localities increased from 403 in 2004 (11th GE) to 419 in 2008/02/05 (12th GE). There has been one additional localities added in 2008Q1.
• The additional locality is 044/10/01/059 Seberang Jaya/Jalan Sembilang/Lorong Sembilang 33

Postal Voters

• There were only 91 postal voters in 2004 (11th GE).
  
• The number of voters jumped to 492 in the 2008 roll for the 12th GE, with the inlcusion of 404 postal voters from the newly added locality of "Balai Polis Bukit Mertajam."
  
• In 2008Q1, one police officer moved out of Balai Polis BM and P044, reducing the postal voter to 491.

Total voters

• The total number of voters in 11th GE was 54,041.
• Voters increased by 8% to 58,449 by 20080205 for the 12th GE .
• The 2008Q1 supplemental electoral roll included 658 voter changes, comprising 373 new voters (addition), 112 voters moving in (addition), -84 voters moving out (deletion), and -89 deletion due to death.
  
• Net changes involved 312 more voters in 2008Q1.
• The ending number of voters by 2008Q1 totalled 58,761 voters.

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Army/Police Movements - Where To and From

Army/Police Moving To Setiawangsa, From Lumut, etc

The tables below show where army/police postal voters were moved in to ("Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat" or Malvu change type 12) and moved out from ("Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat" or Malvu change type 32). Army/Police voters are defined as those voters whose last 3-digit locality codes are 400s to 700s.

Here are some observations for the pre-GE quarter of 2007q4:

• 3,322 army/police voters moved into P118 KL's Setiawangsa, while 1,737 moved out, with net increase of 1,585 army/police voters.


• Sabah>Sepanggar>Karambunai (Kod 17112) saw a net increase of 506 army/police voters. Selangor>Subang>Kota Damansara (Kod 10739) saw a net increase of 306 army/police voters.


• The largest net sources of army/police voters were Perak>Lumut >Pangkor (Kod 07452), seeing 1,762 moved in, 2,460 moved out, with a net decrease of -698 army/police voters.

Table A: 2007q4: Army/Police Voter Changes Type 12 (Moved IN), Type 32 (Moved OUT), and Net

				Moved	Moved	Net
Kod	Negeri	NamaParlimen	NamaDUN	In	Out	Change
11800	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Setiawangsa		3,322	1,737	1,585
07452	Perak	Lumut	Pangkor	1,762	2,460	-698
13231	Negeri Sembilan	Telok Kemang	Bagan Pinang	1,355	1,602	-247
10739	Selangor	Subang	Kota Damansara	739	433	306
13611	Melaka	Tangga Batu	Sungai Udang	693	759	-66
21249	Sarawak	Sibu	Nangka	592	673	-81
17112	Sabah	Sepanggar	Karambunai	507	1	506
08520	Pahang	Pekan	Pulau Manis	490	348	142
12400	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Bandar Tun Razak		391	481	-90
04926	Pulau Pinang	Tanjong	Padang Kota	341	357	-16
00810	Kedah	Pokok Sena	Bukit Pinang	334	250	84
16600	W.P Labuan	Labuan		331	356	-25
08212	Pahang	Indera Mahkota	Beserah	325	307	18
01426	Kedah	Merbok	Tanjong Dawai	291	267	24
19715	Sarawak	Kota Samarahan	Muara Tuang	281	242	39
15229	Johor	Kluang	Mahkota	236	530	-294
13334	Negeri Sembilan	Tampin	Gemas	229	171	58
17318	Sabah	Putatan	Petagas	193	278	-85
12000	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Bukit Bintang		179	311	-132
19612	Sarawak	Stampin	Kota Sentosa	177	201	-24
11500	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Batu		169	301	-132
04206	Pulau Pinang	Tasek Gelugor	Telok Ayer Tawar	168	275	-107
18544	Sabah	Batu Sapi	Karamunting	159	102	57
09406	Selangor	Hulu Selangor	Kuala Kubu Baharu	158	10	148
19160	Sabah	Kalabakan	Sebatik	147	70	77
03301	Terengganu	Besut	Kuala Besut	132	45	87
15942	Johor	Pasir Gudang	Johor Jaya	132	118	14
06016	Perak	Taiping	Kamunting	124	332	-208
10329	Selangor	Puchong	Seri Serdang	120	67	53
13022	Negeri Sembilan	Rasah	Rahang	113	123	-10
11253	Selangor	Kuala Langat	Morib	108	102	6
19509	Sarawak	Bandar Kuching	Padungan	103	21	82
15433	Johor	Mersing	Tenggaroh	84	134	-50

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.

Remember:

• These data do not show earlier movements, such as in 2007q3.


• There are also some really bizzare in-and-out movements by identical army/police voters. For example, Pulau Pinang > Tanjong > Padang Kota (Kod 04926), which showed 341 IN and 357 OUT, and Net -16. If you look closer at the names, 312 of the INs and 312 of the OUTs were identical army ICs, which we will explore in the next blog entry.
  


• These data also do not show the sequence of movements. Did the inward movement occur earlier, or did the outward movement occurred earlier?

In contrast, there was little movement by army/police voters for the GE2008 quarter of 2008q1, shown in the table below of top-10 DUNs for in-coming army/police voters:

Table B: 2008q1: Army/Police Voter Changes Type 12 (Moved IN), Type 32 (Moved OUT), and Net

				Moved	Moved	Net
Kod	Negeri	NamaParlimen	NamaDUN	In	Out	Change
11048	Selangor	Klang	Kota Alam Shah	113	24	89
04102	Pulau Pinang	Kepala Batas	Bertam	105	6	99
10840	Selangor	Shah Alam	Kota Anggerik	50	23	27
07452	Perak	Lumut	Pangkor	34	35	-1
01836	Kedah	Kulim-Bandar Baharu	Bandar Baharu	19	2	17
13822	Melaka	Kota Melaka	Bandar Hilir	17	4	13
19408	Sarawak	Petra Jaya	Satok	16	1	15
04719	Pulau Pinang	Nibong Tebal	Jawi	13	4	9
10945	Selangor	Kapar	Selat Klang	12	10	2
11700	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Segambut		11	21	-10

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
Note: If you find the text too small, try pressing Ctrl and scrolling the mouse's middle button up or down to adjust the font size.


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Dead Voters Society Membership Reduced

Thousands of dead voters retired in each of the last 2 quarters. Further details on Army/Police movements.

The 3 tables below are related. (Table A = Table B + Table C. ) They summarize the types of quarterly changes in electoral rolls of 2007q4 and 2008q1:

1. All voters (army, police, civilians),
2. Army and police postal voter changes, and
3. Civilian changes, excluding army and police.

Our observations based on these 3 tables:

• New voters mostly civilians: In 2007q4, eg, new registrations were 55% of all changes. These are mostly civilian new registrations, since new registrations by Police/Army voters only accounted for 1.3% of all voter changes. Similar pattern occurred in 2008q1 -- there were very few new Army/Police voters.


• What the Army/Police voters excel at is moving around before the GE. While civilian voters who moved addresses accounted for 13.2% and 13.6% -- quite evenly distributed over the 2 quarters -- of 2007q4 and 2008q1 respectively, the Army/Police were particularly active before the GE. Army/Police voters who were repositioned accounted for 5.8% of all voter changes in 2007q4 just in time for GE2008, but only 0.4% during 2008q1 when it was too late for GE2008.


• Recent campaign to strike off dead voters? SPR deleted 16,651 and 18,548 dead voters, or 5.8% and a significant 14.1% of voter changes, respectively during 2007q4 and 2008q1. These are mostly civilian voters. Judging from the significant percentage of 14.1% of a relatively "more normal" quarter of 2008q1, it looks like this is a recent campaign and determination by the SPR to clean up the Dead Voters Society after persistent protests by election watch groups.

Data background: See earlier blog for a basic understanding about Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4. For overview, also see the last post Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008.

A. ALL VOTERS INCL. ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	75,484	57.5%	159,123	55.0%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	18,385	14.0%	54,920	19.0%
Subtotal - Addition		93,869	71.5%	214,043	74.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	18,385	14.0%	54,920	19.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	18,548	14.1%	16,651	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	2	0.0%	671	0.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	-	0.0%	992	0.3%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	1	0.0%	1,261	0.4%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	8	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	357	0.3%	5	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	1	0.0%	121	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	54	0.0%	63	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	7	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	-	0.0%	362	0.1%
Others	99	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		37,363	28.5%	75,060	26.0%
Total - ALL VOTERS		131,232	100.0%	289,103	100.0%
B. ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	814	0.6%	3,710	1.3%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	528	0.4%	16,743	5.8%
Subtotal - Addition		1,342	1.0%	20,453	7.1%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	578	0.4%	16,806	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	9	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	2	0.0%	668	0.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	0	0.0%	2	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	1	0.0%	1,261	0.4%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	355	0.3%	1	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	0	0.0%	8	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	7	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	0	0.0%	362	0.1%
Others	99	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		952	0.7%	19,119	6.6%
Total - ARMY/POLICE VOTERS		2,294	1.7%	39,572	13.7%
C. EXCLUDING ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	74,670	56.9%	155,413	53.8%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	17,857	13.6%	38,177	13.2%
Subtotal - Addition		92,527	70.5%	193,590	67.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	17,807	13.6%	38,114	13.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	18,539	14.1%	16,644	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	-	0.0%	990	0.3%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	8	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	2	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	1	0.0%	121	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	54	0.0%	55	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Others	99	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		36,411	27.7%	55,941	19.3%
Total - NON-ARMY/POLICE VOTERS		128,938	98.3%	249,531	86.3%

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
Note: If you find the text too small, try pressing Ctrl and scrolling the mouse's middle button up or down to adjust the font size.


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Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008

A large percentage of army or police postal voters were moved in the quarter before GE2008

The 12th General Election, which took place on 2008 Mar 8, was based on electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Feb 5. In this electoral roll, voter data were updated to 2007 Dec 31 for most parliamentary constituencies, but in some disputed parliamentary constituencies, up to 2007 Sep 30.

We want to see changes to army voters that took place before and during/after GE2008. To do so, we compare the quarterly supplementary rolls (senarai tambahan) for voter changes of 2007q4 and 2008q1 that SPR issues in PDF format.

The table below show a large movement of postal voters (mostly army and police, with locality codes that end in 400s, 500s, 600s, and 700s ).

	spr2008q1	spr2007q4
Start of period	2008 Jan 1	2007 Oct 1
End of period	2008 Mar 31	2007 Dec 31
Total listing of voters	131,232	289,103
Army/police voters, locality codes >=400	2,294	39,572
Percentage army+poilce / total voters	1.7%	13.7%
			Gazetted 20080205 GE2008
NamaParlimen involved in change - count	222	222	222
NamaDUN involved in change - count	572	572	572
NamaDM (Daerah Mengundi) - count	6,578	6,578	6,733
NamaLokaliti (Locality) - count	95,865	95,657	94,801

Large postal/police/army voter movements in the quarter before GE2008:

• There were large changes in voters before GE2008 (2007q4) totaling 289,103, more than double the 131,232 voter changes of the quarter (2008q1) on which the GE falls. We'll examine the reasons in the next blog, but it was mainly because
  1. potential voters were more excited about the upcoming GE, and many registered as voters for the first time,
  2. many changed their addresses, and
  3. a boost by postal voter movements.
  (Remember, where there is a change of address, the voter is counted twice in quarterly list, as a voter moving out of one place, and as a voter moving in to another place.)


• Changes registered for army/police voters total 39,752 in the quarter before GE2008, nearly as big as an urban parliamentary constituency, accounting for a whopping 13.7% of the already-large changes of 289,103.
  


• Had it been a more "regular" quarter, such as 2008q1, and considering double-counting, the 39,752 could have accounted for over 25% voter changes.
  


• In comparison, the equivalent category was only 2,294 during the GE quarter, or 1.7% of total changes for that quarter.

Background statistics about parliament, DUNs, DM, localities:

• There were 222 parliamentary constituencies -- no change because there will be no re-delineation until 2010-1011.


• There were 572 DUNs for both quarters, excluding federal territories, which sadly have no state representation.


• There 6,578 Daerah Mengundi (voting districts) for both quaters, but strangely only 6,733 DMs for the voters roll gazetted on Feb 5, 2008. Either my data has problems, or it is due to disputed/ungazetted parliamentary rolls. It is a fact that some constituencies, such as P049 (Tanjong, PP) used older 2007q3 voter list in the gazetted roll, because the 2007q4 list was disputed. It is possible that SPR had drawn up new DMs for 2007q4 (Coincidence? Or why so late?) that had to be put aside until these seats are gazetted. Such practice plus SPR errors could also have contributed to some of the past complaints about political parties receiving different voters rolls, voters getting assigned to new DMs not being able to find their familiar DMs, etc.


• There were 95,657 localities (streets, government hostels, army camp) in 2007q4, increasing to 95,865 in 2008q1, but only 94,801 for gazette date 2008 Feb 5. The reason is likely again to be disputed constituencies, such that some constituencies such as P049 included only 2007q3 list of a smaller number of localities.

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Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4

Background: What happens to the electoral roll every quarter?

About 15-30 days after the end of a quarter, SPR will publish changes to the electoral roll to allow the public to review them at post offices, as well as online at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pamer_rang.htm. These 222 PDF files will be removed after about 2 weeks. SPR's Bahasa Malaysia Web site is more updated than the English site.

I've used some programs and scripts to extract the data into a database. You cannot use Adobe Reader's "Save As" command, because that output loses information about how the right columns are separated by spaces, tabs, etc.

The 2008 first quarter supplemental voter list is now available. I call this set of data "spr2008q1." I have also downloaded the PDF files for 2007 4th quarter, and call this set of data "spr2007q4."

I will post quick overviews of spr2008q1 (data from after the 12th General election), and some comparison with spr2007q4 (data from before the election).

What are the changes?

To begin with, we need to know what types of changes are reflected in the quarterly supplementary electoral rolls. Both ADDITIONs and DELETIONs are included, and some rows may offset the other rows. For example, one voter can move OUT from one locality, and move INTO another, and will appear twice in this list.

The ADDITIONs are reflected in the first 2 types below (types 11 nd 12). The rest are DELETIONs. The "changeType" code in the left column is MALVU's own numbering system, and is not created by the SPR. These changes were compiled from 2007q4 and 2008q1; there may be more types of changes that did not occur in these 2 quarters.

change Type	changeTypeText (SPR text)	changeTypeExplanation (Malvu explanation)
11	PENDAFTARAN BARU	Addition into list - New registration
12	PENDAFTARAN TUKAR ALAMAT	Addition into list - Change of address registration (move in)
31	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PENGENALAN DIRI TIDAK LENGKAP	Deletion from list - Identification not complete
32	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PEMILIH BERTUKAR ALAMAT	Deletion from list - Voter change address (move out)
33	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - KEMATIAN	Deletion from list - Death
34	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - HILANG KELAYAKAN SEBAGAI PENGUNDI POS	Deletion from list - Loss of eligibility as postal voter
35	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - DILUCUTKAN KEWARGANEGARAAN	Deletion from list - Loss of citizenship
36	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - BERSARA POLIS/ TENTERA	Deletion from list - Retired from police or army
37	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - MASUK TENTERA	Deletion from list - Enter into army
38	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - SILAP PENDATAAN	Deletion from list - Data mistakes
39	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - MASUK POLIS	Deletion from list - Enter into police
40	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PERGI KE LUAR NEGERI	Deletion from list - Gone out of country
41	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PULANG DARI LUAR NEGERI	Deletion from list - Return from out of country
42	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - TENTERA DI RAGUI	Deletion from list - Army in doubt (?)
99	OTHERS	Others

Alternative title for SPR2008q1: Rang Daftar Pemilih Tambahan Untuk Suku Pertama Tahun 2008 (1 JANUARI - 31 MAC). Short name for these set of data compiled by MALVU from SPR sources: "spr2008q1" and "spr2007q4."
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