Permatang Pauh's 490 Police Postal Voters

Permatang Pauh's typical postal voter is a policeman, 43 to 50 years old, who has been stationed at the new police HQ at Bukit Mertajam after the 2004 General Election. His police IC number typically starts with the characters "RF."

What does Table A tell us?

• Permatang Pauh hosts 490 postal voters,
• All of them are police voters (Locality code 700's).
  
• There are no army, navy, airforce, or overseas postal voters,
• Most of the the postal voters - 95% - are stationed in Seberang Jaya DUN (N10),

• Nearly 2/3 or 65% are in the new police HQ, at "Ibu Pejabat Polis Daerah Seberang Perai Tengah," which is actually in Bukit Mertajam,
• This new police HQ was added to Permatang Pauh only after the 2004 GE,

• Click on the "NamaLokaliti" links to open WikiMapia maps to these police stations. Please inform me of any mistaken map links.
  

Table A: Permatang Pauh's Postal Voters By Localities

Parl/DUN/ DM/Lokaliti	NamaDUN State Assembly Seat	NamaDM Voting District	NamaLokaliti Locality Name (with links to WikiMapia.org)	House No.	TM Voting Station	Postal Voters
044/10/01/701	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Sembilang	Balai Polis Seberang Jaya	-	POS	55
044/10/04/701	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Belah Dua	Kor Sukarelawan Polis Siswa UITM		POS	7
044/10/07/701	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Balai Polis Bukit Mertajam		POS	83
044/10/07/702	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Ibu Pejabat Polis Daerah Seberang Perai Tengah		POS	321
044/11/02/701	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Ara	Polis	748	POS	1
044/12/07/701	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Balai Polis Kubang Semang	-	POS	23
P044	Total postal voters					490

What does Table B tell us?

• Permatang Pauh's postal voters increased sharply after the 11th GE in 2004,
• Postal voters increased from 91 to 490, an increase of 399,
• The increase came from the new police HQ and another station in Bukit Mertajam, mainly at "Ibu Pejabat Polis Daerah Seberang Perai Tengah" (044/10/07/701 and 044/10/07/702),
  

Table B: Permatang Pauh - Number of Postal Voters Since 2004

Parl/DUN/ DM/Lokaliti	NamaDUN State Assembly Seat	NamaDM Voting District	NamaLokaliti Locality Name	11th GE	12th GE	P044 By- Election
Date of Electoral Roll				2004 0302	2008 0205	2008 0731
044/10/01/701	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Sembilang	Balai Polis Seberang Jaya	61	55	55
044/10/04/701	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Belah Dua	Kor Sukarelawan Polis Siswa UITM		7	7
044/10/05/701	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya I	Polis	1	0	0
044/10/07/701	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Balai Polis Bukit Mertajam		84	83
044/10/07/702	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Ibu Pejabat Polis Daerah Seberang Perai Tengah		321	321
044/11/02/701	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Ara	Polis	1	1	1
044/12/07/701	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Balai Polis Kubang Semang	28	24	23
P044	Total postal voters			91	492	490

Does the jump in postal voters before 12th GE of 2008 have any implications today?

Yes! It helped to elect state assemblyman Arif Shah, the current by-election opponent to Anwar Ibrahim at the parliamentary level. Arif Shah's majority at Seberang Jaya (DUN, state assembly seat, N10) dropped from 4,464 in 2004 to only 553 in 2008.

How many new postal votes were introduced by the police HQ and police station in Bukit Mertajam (044/10/07/701 and 044/10/07/702) between the 11th GE and 12th GE?

The total was 405! The new police HQ introduced 405 new postal voters to Seberang Jaya, Arif Shah's state seat, by 2008 Feb 5 (before that number dropped to 404 by 2008 July 31).

This point becomes pertinent today, because Arif Shah appears to be BN's best candidate, and derives his legitimacy to contest against Anwar at Permatang Pauh from Arif's own election as the ADUN of Seberang Jaya by 533 votes. Had there been no new and old postal voters in the 12th GE, the Arif Shah's majority would be wafer thin, likely requiring many recounts.

TheMalaysianInsider.com quote below attributed Arif Shah's win to these postal voters.

BN’s "Ariff Shah — first impressions," TheMalaysianInsider.com, Aug 14, 2008 (Extract) During the 2004 general election, Malaysians' generous mandate to the then new Prime Minister also gave first-time candidate Ariff Shah a thumping majority of 4,464 votes over the well-known figure Dr Mansor Othman, who was then Penang PKR chief. However, Abdullah's unpopularity later also cut Ariff Shah's majority to only 553 votes to an unknown Ramli Bulat of PKR, and most of the votes he received were said to be from postal votes.

The questions would then be:

• Shouldn't postal votes require more transparency?
• Shouldn't postal votes be reformed to give postal voters more privacy and independence?
• Shouldn't we be monitoring postal votes in the next few days?

Nevertheless, because this by-election is a larger parliamentary contest, the 490 postal voters probably cannot play any decisive role. There is also little chance of newly-imported phantom voters, because there had been few increase in voters since the 2008 Feb 5 gazetted voters roll used in the 12th GE. SPR may actually have gone over-conservative in the deletion of elderly voters.

The chart below show us that 50% of the postal voters in Permatang Pauh as of 2008 July 31 were born from 1958 to1965. This makes them mostly 43 to 50 years old.

Chart 1: Permatang Pauh - Number of Postal Voters by Year of Birth


What do Tables C and D tell us?

• Most of these postal voters 424/490 are male, and policewomen number 66.
  
• Most of these police postal voters (424/490) have IC numbers that start with "RF,"
• The other police officers have IC numbers that start with "I," "G," and "RT,"
• (The number of 424 having "RF" IC and 424 being male is a coincidence. There are female police with "RF" ICs too.)

Table C: Permatang Pauh - Postal Voters Broken Down by Gender

Parl/DUN/ DM/Lokaliti	NamaDUN State Assembly Seat	NamaDM Voting District	NamaLokaliti Locality Name	Female	Male	Total
044/10/01/701	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Sembilang	Balai Polis Seberang Jaya	10	45	55
044/10/04/701	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Belah Dua	Kor Sukarelawan Polis Siswa UITM	0	7	7
044/10/07/701	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Balai Polis Bukit Mertajam	12	71	83
044/10/07/702	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Ibu Pejabat Polis Daerah Seberang Perai Tengah	41	280	321
044/11/02/701	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Ara	Polis	0	1	1
044/12/07/701	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Balai Polis Kubang Semang	3	20	23
P044	Total postal voters			66	424	490

Table D: Permatang Pauh - Postal Voters Broken Down by IC's Leading Characters

Parl/DUN/ DM/Lokaliti	NamaDUN State Assembly Seat	NamaDM Voting District	NamaLokaliti Locality Name	RF	I	G	RT	Total
044/10/01/701	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Sembilang	Balai Polis Seberang Jaya	54	1	0	0	55
044/10/04/701	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Belah Dua	Kor Sukarelawan Polis Siswa UITM	6	1	0	0	7
044/10/07/701	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Balai Polis Bukit Mertajam	67	5	2	9	83
044/10/07/702	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Ibu Pejabat Polis Daerah Seberang Perai Tengah	274	26	8	13	321
044/11/02/701	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Ara	Polis	0	1	0	0	1
044/12/07/701	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Balai Polis Kubang Semang	23	0	0	0	23
P044	Total postal voters			424	34	10	22	490

An example of a police IC is "RF123456."

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Permatang Pauh Official Electoral Roll - An Overview

We summarize the official electoral roll for Permatang Pauh P044.

How was this electoral roll built? We believe the SPR has constructed this official by-election voters' roll (said to be dated 2008 July 31) from these building blocks:

• The electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Jun 19, based on 2008 March 31 (2008Q1) data
• Delete dead voters, moved-out, and other deletion-type, voters reported as of 2008 Jun 30 (2008Q2), ungazetted voters roll
• Delete further any voters aged 100-year-old and older.

Step 3 raises the question whether proper procedures have been followed to verify the deletion, or voters 100 or more years old have simply been deleted.

What Table A below tells us:

• Permatang Pauh contains 3 state assembly seats (DUNs)
• It contains 28 voting districts (DM or Daerah Mengundi),
  
• But it contains only 25 polling or voting stations (TM, or Tempat Mengundi), because 3 paris of DMs shared TMs.
• There is a total of 420 localities or street area, or police stations (or army camps).
• There are 58,459 voters, made up of 57,969 non-postal voters and 490 postal voters.
  

Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh - An Overview

The Number of …
DUN or State Assembly Seats	3
DM or Voting Districts	28
TM or Voting/Polling Station	25
Lokaliti or Localities	420
Non-postal voters	57,969
Postal voters	490
Total Voters	58,459

What Table B below tells us:

• This is a by-election at the parliamentary level, and not DUN level, but voters are still organized under 3 DUNs.
  
• Seberang Jaya is the largest DUN, with 39% of the voters,
• Penanti is the smallest DUN, only 2/3 the size of SJ.
• There are 28 voting districts (DM), excluding postal voters,
• There are 110 voting streams (Saluran), excluding postal voters.

Table B: P044 Permatang Pauh - Voters Broken Down by DUN

Parl/DUN code	NamaDUN State Seat Name	Voters	Percentage	DM Voting Districts	Saluran Voting Streams
044/10	Seberang Jaya	22,790	39.0%	9	39
044/11	Permatang Pasir	20,289	34.7%	9	39
044/12	Penanti	15,380	26.3%	10	32
P044	Total	58,459	100.0%	28	110

Table C below shows:

• The names for 28 voting district (DM),
  
• The name for 25 voting station (TM), because those DMs in red shared the same TMs,
  
• The number of voters, ranging from 509 to 3,100 voters per DM.
• The weight of voters of each voting district (DM), ranging from 0.9% to 5.3% of total,
  

• The number of voting stream (Saluran) per DM, from 1 to mostly 5.
• Note that TM "Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri" contains 10 voting streams because it is shared by two DMs (5TM+5TM).
  
• There are two other TMs with 8 and 7 voting streams for similar reason.

• We can predict that old voters in such large TMs may be required to climb upstairs to vote. The three largest TMs are shared by two DMs each. Hopefully, there will be 10 class rooms on the ground floor to accommodate all the voting streams.
  
• If there are not enough classrooms on the ground floor, voters from the first DM may be assigned to voting streams on ground floor, while voters from the second DM may be assigned upstairs.
  
• In this case, even though the electoral roll attempts to arrange older voters (lower IC #) in the first few voting streams (Saluran), they are queued in front only on the upper floors.
  
• The solution is for SPR to split the voting center vertically (left side for one DM and right side for the others), instead of horizontally.
  

• You can also click under the "TM / Voting Station" for map links to each voting station (TM).
  

Table C: P044 Permatang Pauh Non-Postal Voters Broken Down by Voting District (28 NamaDM)

Parl/ DUN/ DM	Nama DUN / State Assembly Seat	NamaDM / Voting District	TM / Voting Station (Click link for map)	Voters	Per cent	Sa lu ran	Sha red TM?
044/10/01	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Sembilang	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya	2,933	5.1%	5
044/10/02	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya II	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri	2,966	5.1%	5	Shared
044/10/03	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Pertama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Tok Kandu	1,607	2.8%	3
044/10/04	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Belah Dua	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Pauh Jaya Taman Pauh	2,168	3.7%	4
044/10/05	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya I	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya Persiaran Siakap	3,100	5.3%	5
044/10/06	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Bahru	Sekolah Kebangsaan Jalan Baharu	2,274	3.9%	4
044/10/07	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Permatang Rawa	2,223	3.8%	4
044/10/08	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Tuna	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri	2,926	5.0%	5	Shared
044/10/09	Seberang Jaya	Taman Tun Hussein Onn	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Tun Hussien Onn	2,127	3.7%	4
044/10	Subtotal			22,324	38.5%	39
044/11/01	Permatang Pasir	Sama Gagah	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Sama Gagah	2,774	4.8%	5
044/11/02	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Ara	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Pasir	2,980	5.1%	5
044/11/03	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Pauh	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Pauh	1,759	3.0%	4
044/11/04	Permatang Pasir	Bukit Indra Muda	Sekolah Kebangsaan Bukit Indera Muda	2,750	4.7%	5
044/11/05	Permatang Pasir	Kampong Pelet	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Kubang Semang Jalan Kepala Batas	1,750	3.0%	4
044/11/06	Permatang Pasir	Kubang Semang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti	1,424	2.5%	3	Shared
044/11/07	Permatang Pasir	Tanah Liat Mukim 8	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti	2,175	3.8%	4	Shared
044/11/08	Permatang Pasir	Kampong Cross Street 2	Sekolah Rendah Islam Al Masriyah Jalan Abdul Kadir	2,179	3.8%	4
044/11/09	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Tengah	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Lay Keow Permatang Pauh	2,497	4.3%	5
044/11	Subtotal			20,288	35.0%	39
044/12/01	Penanti	Guar Perahu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	1,907	3.3%	4
044/12/02	Penanti	Kuala Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	2,727	4.7%	5
044/12/03	Penanti	Telok Wang	Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda	599	1.0%	1
044/12/04	Penanti	Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	1,901	3.3%	4
044/12/05	Penanti	Sungai Lembu	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu	509	0.9%	1
044/12/06	Penanti	Penanti	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	1,061	1.8%	3
044/12/07	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Penanti	1,400	2.4%	3
044/12/08	Penanti	Sungai Semambu	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	1,872	3.2%	4	Shared
044/12/09	Penanti	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	1,920	3.3%	4	Shared
044/12/10	Penanti	Berapit Road	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit	1,461	2.5%	3
	Subtotal			15,357	26.5%	32
P044	Total			57,969	100.0%	110

Note:

• We are not sure about the map locations for "Sekolah Rendah Islam Al Masriyah Jalan Abdul Kadir" (try tel: 04 538 5126, 04 521 5126), "Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda," and "Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu" (A.K.A. SJK(C) Kg. Sg. Lembu, try tel: 04 521 1795).
• Please inform us about any map location mistakes.
• You can look up this PDF file for Penang schools' telephone numbers: http://www.moe.gov.my/emis/emis2/emisportal2/doc/fckeditor/File/senarai_sek_08/rendah/SekRen08_PP.pdf

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

MAFREL Permatang Pauh Wants You

MAFREL, Malaysian for Free and Fair Election, a non-partisan NGO now has 84 volunteers, but is still looking for at least another 70 volunteers.

MAFREL's contact information for Northern Region and Permatang Pauh operating centre are:

• Blog: http://mafrel.wordpress.com/
• Jamal tel: 019-4742200
• Ong tel: 013-5900339
• Address: 1508, Tingkat 1, Jalan Arowana, Taman Arowana, Seberang Jaya
• Map URL at WikiMapia.org Hybrid version of map . Map version . Satellite image version

Here's an announcement from Ong:

Halo folks! Volunteers reach 84 tonight! There are non stop people coming here to join as volunteer of MAFREL today -the final count is 84 members! But don't think that this is the ceiling/peak already-Cikgu Alisa has the ambitious target of 150 members ie 5 for each voting centre (28 in all)! So please get your friends to join in this fastest growing NGO! Welcome to Christopher-1st f/time volunteer! The MAFREL Ops Centre welcome a f/timer from Ipoh, Christopher. He is waiting for a job interview for his study vacation. He has been able to help out on many things -computer, photography etc. If there are others who are interested please contact us ASAP! There has been enquiries from volunteers from KL and Sarawak-hopefully 1 or 2 more will join us soon! Training for Polling Day: Wed (Aug 20) 9pm, MAFREL's Operation Centre Since there are many new and old folks among the volunteers the Polling Day Coordinator Cikgu Aliasa plan to hold a training for Polling Day this coming Wed. Please pass the words around! We are campaigning for free and fair elections while the candidates campaign for office! Cikgu Alisa also get lots of input from Dr Halim, who is the Kelantan MAFREL Regional Director, who dropped in for 2 days and will be back Friday. He did provide inspirational influences to all around! Not only intangible influences-he also brought along another doctor from Seberang Jaya Hospital, and also his brother in law to join as volunteers! What a good help and inspiration! Campaign observation in full swing! Volunteers who come to do campaign observation in various ceramahs are growing-though we still cannot cover all the campaign functions. So we went round to all party operation centres in Seberang jaya to distribute a MAFREL card so that they will alert us to their complaints and give us their versions of it/them. We look forward to more complaints from now on! The Daily Election Index is also attracting media attention-with 2 papers enquiing today. With such publicity we/our complaint channel will be getting popular soon! So please join us in the campaign obs team-especially if you are already going to ceramahs-why not send us election offences you witness or offences where you manage to take a snapshot or 2? That's all-see you folks! Ong BK

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Permatang Pauh Lost 25 Centenarians. Did SPR follow proper procedure?

Two weeks ago, there were 25 voters in Permatang Pauh who were 100 years or older. Today, they are gone. It seems all voters 100 years or older were simply deleted at the stroke of a pen. Is SPR in such a hurry to avoid criticism as to undertake a hasty and unprofessional deletion procedure?

Up to the time of the 12th GE held on March 8, these 25 voters at 100 years or older had remained on the electoral roll in Permatang Pauh alone. In fact, you can still find them today at the 2008Q1-updated roll, gazetted on June 19, at this SPR Web page: http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/daftar.aspx

However, with the pending by-election, and probably the fear that some election-monitoring NGO activists are going to pay these centenarians, especially that 128-year-old voter, their due visits that can be embarassing to SPR, SPR seems to have gone on overdrive.

SPR appears to have incorporated part of the ungazetted 2008Q2 quarterly supplementary roll's into the gazetted Jun 19 roll (data up to 2008Q1), and deleted voters who have moved out or have died. The partial use of ungazetted deletion may be a conservative move, and would at least save SPR some embarassment with so many eyes focusing on Permatang Pauh voters.

Hence, these 25 voters, who exist in the June 19 gazetted roll (http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/daftar.aspx), have now gone missing in SPR's by-election electoral roll for Permatang Pauh here: http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/permatangpauh/prayakecil.aspx

Table A: Pematang Pauh - 25 Cenetarian Voters Finally Deleted

Tahunlahir	Age	IC
1908	100	080619075026
1908	100	081016075080
1908	100	081231348440
1908	100	080605745615
1908	100	081104755115
1908	100	080112075027
1908	100	080810025035
1908	100	080527755155
1908	100	081231348387
1907	101	071016755159
1906	102	060530745187
1906	102	060901755019
1906	102	060809075117
1906	102	061112745218
1904	104	041210075029
1904	104	040630745282
1903	105	031120755507
1903	105	031214745131
1903	105	030901755011
1901	107	011215745098
1901	107	010526745445
1900	108	001028085021
1900	108	001212745050
1900	108	000519755187
1880	128	800317075196

But did SPR follow proper verification procedure before deleting the 100 years and older?

SPR has publicly portrayed itself as a "sticker to procedures," that they cannot do this or do that, because it has to stick to the electorate information given by National Registration Department. Did NRD give SPR a list of 100-years-and-older voters to delete for Permatang Pauh? Or was there an element of expediency to avoid public scrutiny of the quality of SPR's electoral roll?

Table B shows that among voters who were over 85 years old as of 2008Q1 (gazetted Jun 19), all of those above 100 years were deleted across the board. In comparison, those below age 100 were deleted partially and sparsely, as though randomly, which indicates a more natural pattern of verification through proper procedure.

Table B: Permatang Pauh Voters over 85 years old as of 2008Q1, and those deleted before by-election

Ta hun lahir	Age	IC	Deleted for by- election		Ta hun lahir	Age	IC	Deleted for by- election		Ta hun lahir	Age	IC	Deleted for by- election
1880	128	800317075196	Deleted		1918	90	180304715170			1920	88	200906075102
1900	108	001028085021	Deleted		1918	90	180910075118	Deleted		1920	88	200322075037
1900	108	001212745050	Deleted		1918	90	181231345600			1920	88	200628075056
1900	108	000519755187	Deleted		1918	90	180511075292			1920	88	200812075056
1901	107	011215745098	Deleted		1918	90	181129075157			1920	88	201202075168
1901	107	010526745445	Deleted		1918	90	180621075023			1920	88	200526715091
1903	105	031120755507	Deleted		1918	90	181029025136			1920	88	201030075128
1903	105	031214745131	Deleted		1918	90	180726075302			1920	88	200721025061
1903	105	030901755011	Deleted		1918	90	180810075022			1920	88	200102075000
1904	104	041210075029	Deleted		1918	90	181231346769			1920	88	200404075102	Deleted
1904	104	040630745282	Deleted		1918	90	181030075042			1920	88	200828715337
1906	102	060530745187	Deleted		1918	90	180725075028			1921	87	211012025273
1906	102	060901755019	Deleted		1918	90	180319715093			1921	87	210621075167
1906	102	060809075117	Deleted		1918	90	180325075037			1921	87	210503075035
1906	102	061112745218	Deleted		1918	90	181216075040			1921	87	211228075106
1907	101	071016755159	Deleted		1918	90	181122075082			1921	87	210720715393
1908	100	080619075026	Deleted		1918	90	180928025397			1921	87	210611085177
1908	100	081016075080	Deleted		1918	90	180726075062			1921	87	210817075046
1908	100	081231348440	Deleted		1918	90	180726085148	Deleted		1921	87	210705075199
1908	100	080605745615	Deleted		1918	90	180824075090	Deleted		1921	87	210616075066
1908	100	081104755115	Deleted		1918	90	181016715568			1921	87	211001075048
1908	100	080112075027	Deleted		1918	90	180513715222			1921	87	210809715154
1908	100	080810025035	Deleted		1918	90	180802075022			1921	87	211209715091
1908	100	080527755155	Deleted		1918	90	180817075017			1921	87	211008075075
1908	100	081231348387	Deleted		1918	90	181201075267			1921	87	211101075010
1909	99	091231076907			1918	90	180712025136			1921	87	210610075102
1909	99	090520745172			1918	90	181011075290			1921	87	210420075048
1910	98	100404715140			1918	90	181231075292			1921	87	211016085097
1910	98	101231365975			1918	90	180801075039			1921	87	210530075065
1910	98	100713075028			1918	90	180617075194			1921	87	210307075046
1911	97	110424715315			1918	90	180706075102			1921	87	210328075088
1911	97	110201715123			1918	90	181122075090	Deleted		1921	87	210726075083
1911	97	110810755227			1918	90	181115075156			1921	87	211208075010	Deleted
1911	97	111111085046			1918	90	180128075011			1921	87	211011025079
1912	96	121212075049			1918	90	180829075284			1921	87	210304715386
1912	96	121129075021			1918	90	181224075104			1921	87	210102075093
1912	96	120406075085			1918	90	180707755169			1921	87	211015745014
1913	95	130708755317			1918	90	180324025038			1921	87	210626075035
1913	95	130907755133			1918	90	180115025058			1921	87	210724085149
1913	95	131231075158			1918	90	181204075158			1921	87	211125025181
1913	95	130120715453			1918	90	180911075048			1921	87	210723025136
1913	95	130530745284			1918	90	180821075028			1921	87	210224075075
1913	95	130213075029			1918	90	180630745105			1921	87	211106715080
1913	95	130725075110	Deleted		1918	90	180325075176			1921	87	210610075049
1913	95	131113075034			1918	90	180207075159			1921	87	210105075005
1913	95	130901755095			1918	90	180718075214			1921	87	210318075084
1913	95	130629075057			1918	90	180919715388	Deleted		1921	87	211026075095
1913	95	130701755381			1918	90	180504715482			1921	87	210913075169
1913	95	130101745016			1919	89	190105075077			1921	87	210818085035
1914	94	140707755111			1919	89	190629715098	Deleted		1921	87	211009075018
1914	94	141102075046			1919	89	190205025034			1922	86	221106075158
1914	94	140225075084			1919	89	190321715390			1922	86	221201075084
1914	94	140311715260			1919	89	190412715433			1922	86	220817025128
1914	94	140610075013			1919	89	190120715271			1922	86	220617075091
1914	94	141231268717			1919	89	190116025358			1922	86	220717075056
1914	94	140612755055			1919	89	191217025343			1922	86	220709075080
1914	94	141215745157			1919	89	190704075001			1922	86	220112075096
1914	94	141124715251			1919	89	190828075070			1922	86	220103075035
1914	94	140823715205			1919	89	190701715106	Deleted		1922	86	220712075065
1915	93	150511715010			1919	89	191018075006			1922	86	220624075014
1915	93	150511715387			1919	89	190522075000			1922	86	220731075028
1915	93	150529715158			1919	89	190417715280			1922	86	221226075099	Deleted
1915	93	151203715136			1919	89	190107025196			1922	86	221107075117
1915	93	150725075012			1919	89	190806075088			1922	86	221130025097
1915	93	150822075030			1919	89	190818075042			1922	86	220318075016
1915	93	150527075003			1919	89	191228025226	Deleted		1922	86	220411075109
1915	93	151103715104			1919	89	191026075065			1922	86	220909075077
1915	93	150516715255			1919	89	191213075183			1922	86	221118075200
1915	93	151226075047			1920	88	201231345032			1922	86	220726075066	Deleted
1915	93	150709075012			1920	88	200312075092			1922	86	220724075003
1915	93	150513715460			1920	88	201027025138			1922	86	221206075139	Deleted
1915	93	150204075068			1920	88	200103715188			1922	86	220626715214
1916	92	161221075004			1920	88	200401715389			1922	86	220627075159
1916	92	160918075106			1920	88	200716715092			1922	86	220610075072
1916	92	160110715086			1920	88	200402075010			1922	86	221209075062
1916	92	160213075018			1920	88	200717075082			1922	86	220120075088
1916	92	160827075004			1920	88	201121075174			1922	86	220610075048
1916	92	160102075058			1920	88	200904715428			1922	86	221110715437
1916	92	160327075067	Deleted		1920	88	200724075099			1922	86	220203075008
1916	92	160810075008			1920	88	200903075078			1922	86	221016075197
1917	91	171215745023			1920	88	200824085147			1922	86	220423075026
1917	91	171031075037			1920	88	200105075022			1922	86	220115075083
1917	91	170404075028			1920	88	200224715088			1922	86	220623715120
1917	91	171104105082			1920	88	200103075045			1922	86	220926075028
1917	91	170319715238			1920	88	200513715260			1922	86	220218075086
1917	91	170726075020			1920	88	200408075169			1922	86	220920715063
1917	91	170726075127	Deleted		1920	88	200718075180			1922	86	220819715202
1917	91	170228715267			1920	88	200422075122			1922	86	220403075010
1917	91	170912715474	Deleted		1920	88	201113075086			1922	86	221105075092
1917	91	171205715365			1920	88	200622025058	Deleted		1922	86	220319085101
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1917	91	170710745157			1920	88	200628715260			1922	86	221018075107
1918	90	180618715384	Deleted		1920	88	200805075090			1922	86	221002075030
1918	90	180814075070			1920	88	200726075084			1922	86	220629075064
1918	90	180524715092			1920	88	201231079870			1922	86	221231026195
1918	90	181001715282			1920	88	200225715223			1922	86	221121075076
1918	90	180711075086			1920	88	201209715228			1922	86	221028075063
1918	90	180525075138			1920	88	200724085035			1922	86	220228715032
1918	90	180620715340			1920	88	200802075052			1922	86	220121715163
1918	90	180530075116			1920	88	200809755085			1922	86	220322075086
1918	90	180711085110			1920	88	200726075279			1922	86	220822075074
1918	90	180615085188			1920	88	201020715312			1922	86	220507715238
1918	90	180727075128			1920	88	200321715362			1922	86	220302075097
1918	90	180120075084			1920	88	200227075178			1922	86	221216715216	Deleted

Note: If you can't see the whole table width, reduce your browser text size (Menu>View>Text Size). You can also click, drag, highlight the table, copy, and paste special, value, into your Excel spreadsheet for easier viewing.

Here is a summary of changes to voters in Permatang Pauh over 85 years old, and what happen to them in the electoral roll.

Table C: Number of voters over 85 years old - Last gazetted, deleted, left for by-election

	Last gazetted	Deleted for by-election	For by-election
Gazetted	2008/06/19	Not yet	Not yet
Data date	2008/03/31	2008/07/31	2008/07/31
Age
86 to 89	160	-10	150
90 to 94	103	-9	94
94 to 99	24	-1	23
100 to 128	25	-25	0
Total	312	-45	267

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

P044 By-Election: 2008Q1 Roll Gazetted Jun 19, With Further Deletions

For the Permatang Pauh by-election, SPR is using 2008Q1 supplemental voters roll gazetted on June 19, appended to 20080205-gazetted data used in the 12th GE, but further deleting dead and move-out voters up to 2008Q2 or 2008 Jul 31

In its press release partially quoted below, SPR is describing a set of electoral roll that is close to our pro-forma electoral roll, except SPR further deletes dead voters and moved-out voters updated to either 2008Q2 or 2008 Jul 31. The further deletion of dead voters and move-outs, based on the ungazetted changes in 2008Q2, explains why the total number of 58,459 voters is lower than our pro-forma estimate of 58,761.

It sounds like new voters registered in April, May, June will not be able to vote. But dead voters and move-outs updates in the same months of April, May, June, will be deleted from the 2008-Jun-19-gazetted data (data as of 2008Q1).

There are several dates involved in any one roll:

(a) date of data: 2008 Mar 31 (incoporating 2008Q1 supplemental roll)
(b) date of gazette: 2008 Jun 19
(c) date of partial additional changes: 2008 Jul 31 (to delete further dead voters and move-outs, based on ungazetted changes in 2008Q2 up to June 30, perhaps even up to July 31).

If the above understanding is correct, then SPR is being conservative. Perhaps even over-conservative to the extent of using 2008Q1 data, but further deleting ungazetted dead voters and move-outs from 2008Q2. If this guess is correct, we have less to worry about recently-imported phantoms.

Voters verification specifically for the P044 by-election http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/permatangpauh/prayakecil.aspx

Quoted from SPR statement at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/Pengumuman/kenyataan_akhbar.htm

4.1 Tarikh Writ dikeluarkan : 7 OGOS 2008

4.2 Tarikh Notis dikeluarkan : 8 OGOS 2008

4.3 Tarikh Penamaan Calon : 16 OGOS 2008

4.4 Tarikh Pengundian : 26 OGOS 2008
(Jika ada pertandingan)

5. Bagi tujuan pilihan raya kecil ini, menurut Peraturan 9 Peraturan-Peraturan Pilihan Raya (Pendaftaran Pemilih) 2002, Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya menentukan bahawa Daftar Pemilih Induk 2007 yang diwartakan pada 5 Februari 2008 dan Daftar Pemilih Tambahan Suku Tahun Pertama tahun 2008 yang diwartakan pada 19 Jun 2008 dan dikemaskinikan sehingga 31 Julai 2008, hendaklah digunakan dalam pilihan raya kecil P.44 Permatang Pauh ini. Seramai 58,459 pemilih yang terdiri daripada 57,969 pemilih biasa dan 490 pemilih pos adalah layak untuk mengundi dalam pilihan raya kecil bagi P.44 Permatang Pauh ini.
Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Count of P044 Voting Districts (DMs), Polling Stations (TMs), and Streams (Saluran)

Updated Version: MalaysiaKini.com reported this:

The Permatang Pauh by-election is slated for Aug 26 (Tuesday) - with nomination day on Aug 16 (Saturday) - announced the Election Commission this morning.

The EC also said it would use the latest electoral roll for the by-election, which will see 57,969 registered voters being eligible to vote as of July 31. There are also 490 postal voters.

---

For preview purpose, we analyze a "pro forma" electoral roll for Permatang Pauh, P044 updated to 2008Mar 31. It contained 58,761 voters, including 491 postal voters, distributed over 28 voting districts (DM), 25 polling stations (TM), and 111 voting streams (Saluran).

The two tables below are prepared from our "pro forma" electoral roll that approximates the one gazetted by the SPR on 2008 Jun 19, by combining the full electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Feb 3 with the 2008Q1 supplementary rolls. See Permatang Pauh By-Election - Which Electoral Roll? for details.

DUNs, voter counts, and breakdown into DMs, TM, and Saluran (voting streams). Table A shows that:

• The Permatang Pauh parlliamentary constituency contains 58,791 voters.
• It contains 3 DUN or state assembly seats,
• N10 or Seberang Jaya contains 22,880 voters, 9 DMs, 8 TMs, and 39 Salurans,
  
• N11 or Permatang Pasir contains 20,397 voters, 9 DMs, 8 TMs, and 40 Salurans,
• N12 Penanti contains 15,484 voters, 10 DMs, 9 TMs, and 32 Salurans.
• A "saluran" is a voting stream, or a voting room, also where votes are counted independently, on-location, after the polling stations close.
• See maps at Understanding Permatang Pauh P044

Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh's Counts of Voters, DMs, TM, by DUN

Parl/DUN code	NamaDUN	Count of Voter	Count of DM	Count of TM	Count of Saluran
P044/N10	Seberang Jaya	22,880	9	8	39
P044/N11	Permatang Pasir	20,397	9	8	40
P044/N12	Penanti	15,484	10	9	32
	Total	58,761	28	25	111

List of all DMs, TMs, and Voter Count for each DM. Table B shows that:

• P044 contains 28 DMs (Daerah Mengundi or Voting Districts),
• It also contains 25 TMs (Tempat Mengundi, or Polling Stations),
• That means 3 pairs of DMs are sharing the same TMs. These shared TMs are highlighted in blue and bold-face below,
  

• N10, Seberang Jaya, contains 9 DMs, and 8 TMs, because Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri is shared as TM by 2 DMs (Seberang Jaya II and Jalan Tuna).
  
• N11, Permatang Pasir, contains 9 DMs, and 8 TMs, because Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti is shared as TM by 2 DMs (Kubang Semang and Tanah Liat Mukim 8)
• N12, Penanti, contains 10 DMs, and 9 TMs, because Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat is used as TM by 2 DMs (Sungai Semambu and Tanah Liat Mukim 9).

• The largest TM or voting station is Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri, which serves as the voting station for both DM Seberang Jaya II (044/10/02) and DM Jalan Tuna (044/10/08).
  
• Total voters assigned to Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri is 6,085, before fully taking into account 2008Q1 voter changes.
• Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri requires 10 voting streams (Saluran) to handle the number of voters.

• The second largest voting station is Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat, which serves as the voting station for both Sungai Semambu (044/12/08) and Tanah Liat Mukim 9 (044/12/09).
  
• Total voters assigned to Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat is 3,819, before fully taking into account 2008Q1 voter changes.
• Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat requires 8 voting streams (Saluran) to handle the number of voters.

• The third largest voting station is Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti, which serves as the voting station for both Kubang Semang (044/11/06) and Tanah Liat Mukim 8 (044/11/07).
  
• Total voters assigned to Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti is 3,616, before fully taking into account 2008Q1 voter changes.
• Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti requires 9 voting streams (Saluran) to handle the number of voters.
  

Table B: P044's Voter Count By Daerah Mengundi (DM or Voting District)

Parl/DUN/DM code	NamaDUN	NamaDM (Daerah Mengundi)	TM (Tempat Mengundi)	Voter Count	Saluran Count	Size Rank
044/10/01	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Sembilang	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya	3,000	5	6
044/10/02	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya II	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri	2,972	10	1
044/10/03	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Pertama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Tok Kandu	1,619	3
044/10/04	Seberang Jaya	Kampong Belah Dua	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Pauh Jaya Taman Pauh	2,181	4
044/10/05	Seberang Jaya	Seberang Jaya I	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya Persiaran Siakap	3,113	5	4
044/10/06	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Bahru	Sekolah Kebangsaan Jalan Baharu	2,280	4
044/10/07	Seberang Jaya	Simpang Ampat	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Permatang Rawa	2,645	4	10
044/10/08	Seberang Jaya	Jalan Tuna	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri	2,935		1
044/10/09	Seberang Jaya	Taman Tun Hussein Onn	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Tun Hussien Onn	2,135	4
044/11/01	Permatang Pasir	Sama Gagah	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Sama Gagah	2,793	5	7
044/11/02	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Ara	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Pasir	3,000	5	5
044/11/03	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Pauh	Sekolah Kebangsaan Permatang Pauh	1,766	4
044/11/04	Permatang Pasir	Bukit Indra Muda	Sekolah Kebangsaan Bukit Indera Muda	2,761	5	8
044/11/05	Permatang Pasir	Kampong Pelet	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Kubang Semang Jalan Kepala Batas	1,763	5
044/11/06	Permatang Pasir	Kubang Semang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti	1,431	7	3
044/11/07	Permatang Pasir	Tanah Liat Mukim 8	Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Penanti	2,185		3
044/11/08	Permatang Pasir	Kampong Cross Street 2	Maktab Adabi Jalan Abdul Kadir Sekolah Rendah Islam Al-Masriyah, Jalan Abdul Kadir	2,195	4
044/11/09	Permatang Pasir	Permatang Tengah	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Lay Keow Permatang Pauh	2,503	5
044/12/01	Penanti	Guar Perahu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	1,924	4
044/12/02	Penanti	Kuala Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	2,736	5	9
044/12/03	Penanti	Telok Wang	Dewan Kelas (Kafa) Kampong Tun Sardon Ara Kuda Dewan Orang Ramai, Kampung Tun Sardon	606	1
044/12/04	Penanti	Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	1,912	4
044/12/05	Penanti	Sungai Lembu	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu	510	1
044/12/06	Penanti	Penanti	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	1,070	3
044/12/07	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Penanti	1,435	3
044/12/08	Penanti	Sungai Semambu	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	1,889	8	2
044/12/09	Penanti	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	1,930		2
044/12/10	Penanti	Berapit Road	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit	1,472	3
	Total			58,761	111

Note:

• Red, bold, font indicate the same voting station or TM is used by two DMs,
• You can copy this table, simply by clicking-and-dragging to darken this table, then copying, and going to Excel, selecting Menu>Edit>Paste Special>Text and OK.

Important for election monitoring, because:

• the information will help plan personnel placement at various polling centers (TM), and
• it will help make an estimation of the "saluran" or voting rooms, that are important for vote counting.

• For example, based on the tables above, an election observation group will need to have
  
• At least 25 field teams on polling day, to be able to cover every one of the 25 TM or Voting Stations,
• At least 111 observers, to be able to observe each voting stream (Saluran).
• The team allocation should refer to Tables A and B.
  
• For example, at least 10 observers should be dispatched to Sekolah Kebangsaan Seberang Jaya II Lengkok Tenggiri just to observe each voting stream and each vote counting room. This does not count the general observers outside of the voting stream class room.
  

Help Mark the TM on WikiMapia and Give me the URLs

You can help complete the above information by working on http://wikimapia.org. Please "create places" in WikiMapia.org for the schools used as polling station, using the schools' full names shown above. Or if they have already been created, find their URL at WikiMapia.

Supply us with their URL in WikiMapia.org using the comment box below. I can add the URLs in the above table, to help election observers plan personnel allocation, and find each school.

Disclaimer:

The above tables are based on a "pro forma" electoral roll for data up to 2008 Mar 31, and is meant to approximate the electoral roll for P044 gazetted on 2008 Jun 19 by the SPR. We have built it by appending the 2008Q1 quarterly supplemental roll of voter changes onto the data of 2007 Dec 31, which was gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 and used in the 12th GE.

We make all efforts to be accurate, but the data may still contain errors. The SPR may also decide to use a different set of data for the by-election, such as the 2008 Jun 30 (2008Q2) data, to be gazetted at a future date.
Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

What's the rush to use the undisplayed, unverified, ungazetted July 31 electoral roll?

Why is SPR using the July 31 electoral roll that has never been displayed for voters to verify, and has not been gazetted, for the Permatang Pauh by-election, when even the earlier June 30 roll has not yet been gazetted?

Less than two weeks ago in late July, SPR displayed the supplemental rolls with data updated to Jun 30 (2008Q2). But even this roll has yet not been gazetted. On SPR's site at http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/, what you see as of today is the electoral roll with data only updated to Mar 31 (2008Q1) gazetted as of June 19.

So now SPR is skipping the ungazetted 2008 Jun 30 data to use Jul 31 data? What's the rush to use an undisplayed, unverified, ungazetted electoral roll?
Following is Bernama report on the electoral roll:

Permatang Pauh Voters Urged To Check Updated Electoral Roll August 06, 2008 18:27 PM PENANG, Aug 6 (Bernama) -- The Election Commission (EC) will be using electoral roll updated until July 31 for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary by-election on Aug 26. State deputy director Ilyani Farha Mohammad urged voters in Permatang Pauh to check the electoral roll via its website http://www.spr.gov.my. "In the March 8 general election, Permatang Pauh parliamentary had 58,449 voters, increasing to 58,459, after it was updated on July 31," she told Bernama here today. EC also set up 28 polling centres for the last general election. Ilyani said for the coming Permatang Pauh by-election, there will be two changes to the polling centres. The one at Maktab Adabi, Jalan Abdul Kadir will be changed to Sekolah Rendah Islam Al-Masriyah, Jalan Abdul Kadir while the one at Dewan Kelas (KAFA) Kampung Tun Sardon, Ara Kuda will be changed to Dewan Orang Ramai, Kampung Tun Sardon. "We urge the public to take note of these changes and will be putting up notices soon," she said. Maktab Perguruan Tuanku Bainun will be retained as the nomination and ballot counting centre. Ilyani said the state EC office was making preparations for the by-election and will be using the equipments used during the March 8 general election. EC has fixed Aug 16 as the nomination day and Aug 26 as polling day for the Permatang Pauh by-election. -- BERNAMA

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Understanding Permatang Pauh P044 (updated 19/8/08)

This post links to basic data and maps for Permatang Pauh (and the specific voter numbers have been updated to reflect the official electoral roll).

Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency (P044) is a large seat in the middle of Seberang Prai, stretching from roughly east of the north-south express way to the Kedah border. It contains 58,459 voters.

For voting history, including parliamentary and state seat candidates, voter racial background, and voting results, from 2004 and 2008, please see Undi.info at:

• http://www.undi.info/ax/state/pn/2008/parliament/P44.html
• http://undi.info/ax/state/pn/2008/states/N10/P44.html
• http://undi.info/ax/state/pn/2008/states/N11/P44.html
• http://undi.info/ax/state/pn/2008/states/N12/P44.html

The constituency delineation maps are originally from Undi.info, at

• http://undi.info/state/pn/2008/parliament.html
• http://undi.info/state/pn/2008/states.html

State Assembly Seat Breakdown

The official electoral roll we obtain on 15/8/08, with data as of 2008 Jul 31 for P044 contains three state assembly seats, or DUN, (N10, N11, and N12) and these number of voters each:

Parl / DUN code	NamaDUN	Voter Count
044/10	Seberang Jaya	22,790
044/11	Permatang Pasir	20,289
044/12	Penanti	15,380
	Total	58,459

WikiMapia.org Satellite and Map

Click for a larger image on a new window. Permatang Pauh is roughly east of PLUS and west of the Kedah border, in the middle section.

Sources:

• Map of Permatang Pauh area at http://wikimapia.org
• Satelite map of Permatang Pauh area at http://wikimapia.org

You can help out by marking all the schools at WikiMapia.org that will be used as voting stations, so that volunteers can find them more easily.
Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Pro Forma Electoral Roll for P044 for 2008Q1

"Pro Forma," or projected, electoral roll will speed planning and by-election monitoring at P044, Permatang Pauh

What we don't have (as of 5/8/08), don't know, or will find out too late:

• We don't yet know which electoral roll SPR will use for the P044 by-election. Will it be the roll gazetted on 2008 Jun 19 that incorporated 2008Q1 voter changes, or some version that incorporates 2008Q2 changes, to be gazetted in late August?
• We don't have the finalized version of the 2008 Jun 19 electoral roll,
• We don't have the 2008Q2 electoral changes (supplementary roll).

However, we do have the 20080205-gazetted full roll and the 2008Q1 supplemental roll, and I can append the latter to the former, to create a "pro forma" version of the 2008 Jun 19 electoral roll, specifically for P044 Permatang Pauh.

Such a "pro forma" electoral roll for P044 is useful, because:

• The campaign period will be very short,
  
• We don't have to wait for SPR to distribute the roll in CD and MS Access file,
• We don't have to wait to process the SPR's MS Access file,
• We can immediately start to list the Daerah Mengundi, Tempat Mengundi, and other details, to work with election monitoring volunteers
  

However, such a "pro forma" roll has its drawbacks:

• It may contain minor errors in voter names,
• It may not reflect additions or changes in Tempat Mengundi and the schools used, compared to the recent 2008 Mar 2, 12th General Election.
• While we project for the roll to include 2008Q1 changes, the SPR may go further and incorporate 2008Q2 voter changes (which we do not have).
  

But making use of our "pro forma" electoral roll, below we compare changes in voters, localities, postal voters, etc, between the 11th GE (2004) and the quarter of 2008Q1:

Table A: P044 - Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, Pulau Pinang

	2004/03/02	2008/02/05	2008Q1	20080619
	11th GE	12th GE	voter changes	pro forma
DUN, state assembly seats	3	3	3	3
DM, voting districts	25	28	28	28
TM, voting stations		25		25
Lokaliti, localities	403	419	218	420
Postal voters	91	492	1	491
All voters	54,041	58,449	658	58,761
Change voter		4,408		312
Change %		8.2%		0.5%
2008Q1 Changes in Supplementary Roll for P044
Addition into list - New registration			373
Addition into list - Change of address registration (move in)			112
Deletion from list - Voter change address (move out)			-84
Deletion from list - Death			-89
Total count of voters			658
Net changes in voters			312

Comments on Table A

• Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat, P044, of Pulau Pinang has 3 DUNS (state assembly seats), a number that has not changed since 2004, namely
  
  • 044/10 Seberang Jaya
  • 044/11 Permatang Pasir
  • 044/12 Penanti
• Voting districts (Daerah Mengundi), however, has apparently increased from 25 in 2004 to 28 now. We will list the DM in a future post.
• We only have data on the Polling Stations (Tempat Mengundi) for 2008/02/05 data, and there are 25 TMs, meaning 3 of the 28 DMs are sharing TM with other DMs.

Localities

• Localities are streets, army camps, or postal locations. The number of localities increased from 403 in 2004 (11th GE) to 419 in 2008/02/05 (12th GE). There has been one additional localities added in 2008Q1.
• The additional locality is 044/10/01/059 Seberang Jaya/Jalan Sembilang/Lorong Sembilang 33

Postal Voters

• There were only 91 postal voters in 2004 (11th GE).
  
• The number of voters jumped to 492 in the 2008 roll for the 12th GE, with the inlcusion of 404 postal voters from the newly added locality of "Balai Polis Bukit Mertajam."
  
• In 2008Q1, one police officer moved out of Balai Polis BM and P044, reducing the postal voter to 491.

Total voters

• The total number of voters in 11th GE was 54,041.
• Voters increased by 8% to 58,449 by 20080205 for the 12th GE .
• The 2008Q1 supplemental electoral roll included 658 voter changes, comprising 373 new voters (addition), 112 voters moving in (addition), -84 voters moving out (deletion), and -89 deletion due to death.
  
• Net changes involved 312 more voters in 2008Q1.
• The ending number of voters by 2008Q1 totalled 58,761 voters.

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Permatang Pauh By-Election - Which Electoral Roll?

Will SPR have time to gazette 2008Q2 supplementary electoral roll, or will it rely on the roll gazetted on 2008 Jun 19, that incorporated 2008Q1 voter changes?

PKR leader Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail resigned from her Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat on July 31 to make way for a come-back by her husband Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar confirmed he will contest in the resulting by-election.

SPR will meet on August 6 (Wed) to decide on which electoral roll to use, when to issue the writ on by-election, nomination date, polling date, among other things. The Permatang Pauh (P044) parliamentary by-election may use either of these voter data sets:

(a) 2008Q1-supplemented roll, gazetted June 19, or
(b) 2008Q2-supplemented roll, to be gazetted in late August or September.

More historical perspective:

Table A: Comparison of Data Dates

Supp roll	Data date	Gazetted	Note
2007Q4	2007/12/31	2008/02/05	Used in GE 2008/03/05
2008Q1	2008/03/31	2008/06/19	To be used in PP 2008 Sep?
2008Q2	2008/06/30	2008 Sep?	To be used in PP 2008 Sep?

We don't have the 2008Q2 supplemental rolls to work out the next electoral roll.

We also don't have the 2008 Jun 19 gazetted full roll that incorporate the 2008Q1 changes.

A check on SPR Web site showed the 2008Q1 supplementary roll for P044 Permatang Pauh was indeed gazetted. (Sometimes, the supplementary roll could not be gazetted because it has been objected by voters or political party and. Not in this case.) We randomly checked several voters from P044 supplementary roll for 2008Q1 did find the changes reflected in the gazetted roll on SPR Web site http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/daftar.aspx

However, I will work out a "pro forma" or projected electoral roll based on 2008/02/05 full roll and the 2008Q1 "changes" roll. It should be close to identical to the one gazetted on 2008 Jun 19.
Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

SPR Becoming Less Transparent

SPR has stopped publishing supplementary electoral roll (quarterly changes) for 2008Q2 in PDF format on its Web site. This will block NGOs from checking large army and police movements, and SPR effectiveness in deleting dead voters

Earlier in 2007Q4 and 2008Q1, SPR had published the supplementary electoral rolls (the quarterly changes of voter addition, deletion, etc) in PDF formats. These PDF files would be put online at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pamer_rang.htm a few weeks after the end of the quarters.

For whatever reason, however, they are no longer published online when the time comes, such as now. Now, you can only check voter changes one by one at http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/rang/rang.aspx or at one of the post offices listed here: http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pameran.html, manually using hard copies.

Both of these approaches are laborious and will not yield overall picture of changes.

This is an unfortunate change towards non-transparency, because NGOs and Opposition parties can no longer do these:

• Tally and check the overall deletion of dead voters during the quarter,
• Check for large army and police movements within the quarter,
• Append quarterly changes to the last gazetted roll to project a "pro-forma" latest roll

Note: SPR Web site had earlier de-linked the Web page that lists post offices where you can manually verify voter changes. But the link is back on now. It's at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pameran.html.

Background:

• What happens to the electoral roll every quarter?
• Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008
• Dead Voters Society Membership Reduced
• Army/Police Movements - Where To and From

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.