Permatang Pasir and Bagan Pinang Analysis Available

We have done analyses of Permatang Pasir and Bagan Pinang by-election electoral rolls. Excel workbooks are available upon request if you represent an NGO or research institution. We hope to follow up with write-ups, even if after the by-elections.

Permatang Pasir By-Election
Electoral roll data date: 2009 July 31
Nomination date: 2009 Aug 17
By-election date: 2009 Aug 25
Campaign period: 8 days

Bagan Pinang By-Election
Electoral roll data date: 2009 Sep 4
Nomination date: 2009 Oct 3
By-election date: 2009 Oct 11
Campaign period: 8 days
Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Manek Urai - superficial increase of 1 voter hides bigger changes underneath

On the surface, Manek Urai's voters increased by only one. But hiding underneath, there was 261 deletions and 262 additions among non-postal voters over the past 16 months. Another 25 police postal voters had their IC format changed, but remained the same persons.

Table A shows that, between the GE12 electoral roll (gazetted 2008 Feb 5 but dated 2007 Dec 31) and this by-election roll (gazetted 2009 June 4, but probably updated to May 2009):

• 261 non-postal voters have been deleted (ICs appeared in GE12 roll, but not in by-election roll),
• 262 non-postal voters have been added (ICs appeared in by-election roll, but not in GE12 roll).
• 25 postal voters (all police) remained, but have had their police ICs updated to a new format, eg, from R0072706 to RF72706.
• 1 postal police voter with 12-digit IC has moved out of potal-voter-district, but remain within the DUN. She is not counted as addition or deletion.

• In total, the net increase is only 1 voter, from 12,292 to 12,293 voters.
• This is a 0.008% net addition in voter size over about 16 month period.

Too graceful? We are beginning to suspect occurrences that small surface changes in by-election rolls seem to hide larger undercurrents in by-electoral rolls. After netting out the confusing police IC changes, addition and deletions seem to balance out roughly, netting only small increases. The small net increases are even smaller when divided by total voter size, and time period. We will investigate this phenomenon in another blog entry. In Penanti, there was 0.15% net addition of voters over 12 months since GE12.

Table A: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604 Compared to GE12 Roll of 20080205
Summary of Voter changes - IC-Name Combinations that Appears in One Roll and Not The Other

	DELETION	ADDITION	Net change
Voter IC exist in	20080205 GE12 roll	20090604 by-election roll
But do not exist in	20090604 by-election roll	20080205 GE12 roll
Count of Non-Postal Voter Changes	261	262	1
Same police voters with updated IC format	25	25	0
One police voter with 12-digit IC moved to non-postal address. Not an addition or deletion.			0
Total net change			1
Voters in 20080205 GE12 electoral roll			12,292
Voters in 20090604 by-election electoral roll			12,293

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

94.2% Manek Urai voters without house number

94.2% of voters in Manek Urai (P031N41) are registered with only a general village or street (locality) address, without any specific house numbers. This hampers voter verification and hides opportunity to plant phantom voters.

Manek Urai has one of the highest rates of voters registered without house numbers in the country at 94.2%, comparable to Sabah and many constituencies in Sarawak. In the GE12 electoral roll (see our May 2008 blog entry),

• about 1/3 of all voters nationwide are registered without house number (NoRumah in SPR database),
  
• about 73% of voters in Kelantan hasno house number
  

Table A shows that:

• The DMs (voting districts) of Chuchoh Puteri and Sungai Sok have the highest percentage of voters without house number (NoRumah) of, respectively 98.0% and 96.8%.
• But the DMs of Sungai Perial and Manek Urai Lama have the largest absolute number of voters without house numbers of, respectively, 1,867 and 1,784, because they are larger districts.
• Overall, 94.2% or 11,554 out of 12,268 non-postal voters are registered without house number.
  

Table A: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Percentage of unique addresses (Kodlokaliti+NoRumah) where NoRumah is blank - Non-Postal Voters

Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Blank_NoRumah	Total_Voters	% with Blank House Number
031/41/06	Manek Urai	Chuchoh Puteri	1,486	1,517	98.0%
031/41/05	Manek Urai	Sungai Sok	949	980	96.8%
031/41/01	Manek Urai	Temalir	942	983	95.8%
031/41/07	Manek Urai	Lata Rek	1,041	1,094	95.2%
031/41/08	Manek Urai	Manjor	997	1,049	95.0%
031/41/03	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	1,784	1,890	94.4%
031/41/09	Manek Urai	Laloh	1,520	1,643	92.5%
031/41/02	Manek Urai	Sungai Perial	1,867	2,019	92.5%
031/41/04	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Baru	968	1,093	88.6%
Non-Postal voters			11,554	12,268	94.2%
Postal voters				25
Total voters				12,293

Table B shows that,:

• Because most voters in Manek Urai (94.2%) are not registered by SPR to have house number, their "locality" (represented only by Kodlokaliti, with blank NoRumah) effectively become their full but vague address.
  
• These are vague but "unique address" (such as"kampong" address)
• By "unique address," we mean Kodlokaliti+Norumah (the latter mostly blank).
  
• Table B is a long list that includes both blank (majority) and non-blank (minority near the bottom) house numbers, down to 3 voters who share the same unique address.
  
• The electoral-roll problem of "many voters without NoRumah" and "large unique address or big virtual houses" become the same issue.
• This list helps us to see the big picture of vague addresses registration by SPR.
  

Many voters look like they share "big, virtual, houses," ie, Unique Addresses without house number (Kodlokaliti+ blank NoRumah). For example,

• There is an address with 1,179 voters and another with 1,032 voters lumped together,
• 1,179 voters appear to live in a "big virtual house" at 031/41/09/001 or Kuala Krai/ Manek Urai / Laloh / Kg Laloh. No further house number details are available for these 1,179 voters.
  
• At the bottom end of this list, notice that where specific house numbers are available, there are 5 or fewer voters living in the same unique addresses.

• We created the "NoRumahCleaned" column to standardize and eliminate SPR's inconsistent addresses formats, to clean up cases such as the 5 voters at "30A", at 031/41/07/001 Kuala Krai/ Manek Urai/ Lata Rek/Lata Rek. They appeared in SPR's database as different house number:
  
• "30 A" (1 voter),
• "30-A" (2 voters), and
  
• "NO 30 A" (2 voters)
  

For field researchers,

• it will be difficult to go through such a large number of voters .
• Such vague addressing will open up great opportunities to implant phantom voters.
  
• We are publicizing this pattern to build up evidence that SPR is not properly registering voter details.
  

Table B: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
"Virtual Big Houses" or Unique Addresses (Kodlokaliti+NoRumah) and Voter Counts - Non-Postal Voters
Blank and Non-Blank House Numbers (NoRumah)

Kodlokaliti	NamaDM	NamaLokaliti	NoRumah	NoRumahCleaned	Voter Count
0314109001	Laloh	Kg Laloh			1,179
0314106001	Chuchoh Puteri	Kg Chuchoh Putri			1,032
0314102001	Sungai Perial	Kg Sg Perial			898
0314103001	Manek Urai Lama	Manek Urai Timor			715
0314101002	Temalir	Temalir Lkt			701
0314107001	Lata Rek	Lata Rek			635
0314104001	Manek Urai Baru	Kg Manek Urai Baru			548
0314103002	Manek Urai Lama	Manek Urai Barat			510
0314106002	Chuchoh Puteri	Kg Chuchoh Putri B			454
0314105002	Sungai Sok	R.K.T. Sg. Sok			417
0314108002	Manjor	Kampong Manjor			398
0314105001	Sungai Sok	Kg Sg Sok Dan Lata Pauh			343
0314108001	Manjor	Kampong Karangan			343
0314102004	Sungai Perial	R K T Perial			336
0314103003	Manek Urai Lama	Manek Urai Hulu			282
0314102005	Sungai Perial	Ladang Lepan Kabu			262
0314108003	Manjor	Kampong Budi			244
0314109002	Laloh	Kg. Lela Jasa			241
0314101001	Temalir	Kg Temalir			241
0314104005	Manek Urai Baru	Kg Gajah			178
0314105004	Sungai Sok	Slow Machang			168
0314102002	Sungai Perial	Kg. Lepan Jenut			162
0314107003	Lata Rek	Kg Chatel			154
0314102003	Sungai Perial	Takdir Sg Perial			139
0314104003	Manek Urai Baru	Kg. Ragu			126
0314107002	Lata Rek	Kg Bukit Budu			121
0314103004	Manek Urai Lama	Kg Kuala Hidong East			120
0314103006	Manek Urai Lama	Kg Sg Masek			102
0314107004	Lata Rek	Kg Jelekis			74
0314104004	Manek Urai Baru	Kg. Leber Kala			66
0314104002	Manek Urai Baru	Ladang Tg. Batu			50
0314102006	Sungai Perial	Kuala Temiang			40
0314103008	Manek Urai Lama	Manek Urai Lama			39
0314109003	Laloh	Kg. Sg. Kamal			35
0314107006	Lata Rek	Kg Tok Uban			33
0314109005	Laloh	Kg. Jeram Panjang			19
0314102007	Sungai Perial	Kg. Kongsi Baru			18
0314105003	Sungai Sok	Kg. Bukit Sabah			18
0314109004	Laloh	Kg. Lebor			17
0314109007	Laloh	Rpt Kesedar Sg Rek			13
0314107005	Lata Rek	Kg Kubang Kerian			12
0314108004	Manjor	Kg Chabang Empat			12
0314103005	Manek Urai Lama	Rumah Kerajaan			11
0314107007	Lata Rek	Kg Lata Pauh			11
0314109006	Laloh	Sykt. Bonaza Sg. Pek			9
0314102008	Sungai Perial	Kg. Pasir Layang			7
0314102009	Sungai Perial	Kg Peria Baru			5
0314107001	Lata Rek	Lata Rek	30-A	30A	5
0314109001	Laloh	Kg Laloh	5	5	4
0314102001	Sungai Perial	Kg Sg Perial	279	279	4
0314102001	Sungai Perial	Kg Sg Perial	14B	14B	4
0314103007	Manek Urai Lama	Pinggir Kajang			4
0314109008	Laloh	Kg Bechah Pulai			4
0314104001	Manek Urai Baru	Kg Manek Urai Baru	LOT 68	LOT68	4
0314103001	Manek Urai Lama	Manek Urai Timor	67	67	4
0314102007	Sungai Perial	Kg. Kongsi Baru	NO 39	39	4
0314109001	Laloh	Kg Laloh	LOT 4109	LOT4109	3
0314109001	Laloh	Kg Laloh	NO 14	14	3
0314109009	Laloh	Kg Sg Rek			3
0314102001	Sungai Perial	Kg Sg Perial	LOT 8	LOT8	3
0314102005	Sungai Perial	Ladang Lepan Kabu	62	62	3
0314109001	Laloh	Kg Laloh	111	111	3
0314104001	Manek Urai Baru	Kg Manek Urai Baru	LOT 287	LOT287	3
0314109001	Laloh	Kg Laloh	115	115	3
0314102005	Sungai Perial	Ladang Lepan Kabu	28	28	3
0314107001	Lata Rek	Lata Rek	16	16	3
0314104001	Manek Urai Baru	Kg Manek Urai Baru	LOT 12	LOT12	3
0314102001	Sungai Perial	Kg Sg Perial	NO 372	372	3
0314104001	Manek Urai Baru	Kg Manek Urai Baru	246	246	3
0314102005	Sungai Perial	Ladang Lepan Kabu	NO 2	2	3
0314105001	Sungai Sok	Kg Sg Sok Dan Lata Pauh	46	46	3
0314103001	Manek Urai Lama	Manek Urai Timor	NO 61	61	3
0314102005	Sungai Perial	Ladang Lepan Kabu	11	11	3
0314109001	Laloh	Kg Laloh	LOT 25	LOT25	3
0314109001	Laloh	Kg Laloh	26	26	3
0314102004	Sungai Perial	R K T Perial	107	107	3
0314104001	Manek Urai Baru	Kg Manek Urai Baru	263	263	3
0314104001	Manek Urai Baru	Kg Manek Urai Baru	LOT 217	LOT217	3
0314102005	Sungai Perial	Ladang Lepan Kabu	3	3	3

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Manek Urai voters - young and getting younger

48% of Manek Urai voter are younger than 40 years of age. The 21-29 year-old segment has increased 7.8% since March 2008, while other age groups have remained the same or reduced in number.

Table A shows that:

• Manek Urai voter count has increased by only 1 to 12,293 between 2008 Feb 5 gazetted roll and 2009 June 4 roll (about 16 months).
• The voters are mostly young, falling in the 21-29 and 30-39 age groups.
• The 21-29 age group is the only group that saw an increase in voters, jumping by nearly 8% in 15-16 months.
• Even the 30-39 age group remained flat (-1).
• All other age groups fell in voter numbers.
• SPR has eliminated the last 100-or-older voter from the roll.
  
• The 21-29 and 30-39 groups add up to 47.9% of all voters, or nearly half in the latest roll, up from 49.3%.
• The 21-49 groups total 67.7%, up from 66.4% of all voters.
  

Table A: N41 Manek Urai By-Election Roll of 20090604 by Age Groups - Comparison with GE12 Roll of 20080205
GE12 By-Election GE12 By-Election

Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Gazetted	Data date				Percentage	Percentage
Group	From	To	20080205	20090604	Change	Change %		20080205	20090604
21-29	1979	1987	2,457	2,651	194	7.9%		20.0%	21.6%
30-39	1969	1978	3,234	3,233	(1)	0.0%		26.3%	26.3%
40-49	1959	1968	2,465	2,437	(28)	-1.1%		20.1%	19.8%
50-59	1949	1958	2,001	1,970	(31)	-1.5%		16.3%	16.0%
60-69	1939	1948	1,192	1,149	(43)	-3.6%		9.7%	9.3%
70-79	1929	1938	739	678	(61)	-8.3%		6.0%	5.5%
80-89	1919	1928	189	163	(26)	-13.8%		1.5%	1.3%
90-99	1909	1918	14	12	(2)	-14.3%		0.1%	0.1%
100+	1884	1908	1	-	(1)	-100.0%		0.0%	0.0%
Total			12,292	12,293	1	0.0%		100.0%	100.0%

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Manek Urai By-Election Background

The Manek Urai, or Manik Urai, DUN (N41) by-election under Kuala Krai (P031) of Kelantan is to be held on July 14, Tuesday and a working day. The state assembly seat contains 12,293 voters, including 25 postal voters. There are 9 voting districts, using 9 schools as voting stations, and 27 voting streams.

Manek Urai is an inland location, west of the Terengganu border.

• See WikiMapia.org road map and terrain map.
• See DUN Map on Undi.info
• See 2004 and 2008 DUN election results on UNDI.info

Although TheStar.com.my (quoted below) reported that SPR (EC, Election Commission) will be using May 22 electoral roll, SPR's own website said it will be using the roll gazetted on June 4, 2009. This is the date we are quoting for the by-election roll. See:

• SPR English announcement
• SPR's Malay announcement

We make several observations on SPR's vagueness and lack of effort to inform the public about its electoral roll dates:

1. SPR has stopped issuing press releases on its electoral roll update and gazette dates to invite public scrutiny (the above announcement is buried inside SPR website),
2. SPR often does not clarify "update" and "gazette" dates, which may have confused TheStar.com.my.
3. SPR announcements can contain mistakes. See the Feb 18 date here and Apr 24 date here (correct one).
   

Tables A and B show that:

• Manek Urai (N41), is a state assembly seat under Kuala Urai (P031),
• It contains 9 Daerah Mengundi (DM or voting districts),
• It contains 27 saluran or voting streams,
  
• It contains 12,293 voters, including 25 postal voters.
• The largest DMs are Sungai Perial (2,019 voters or 16.4%), Manek Urai Lama, and Laloh.

Table A: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Non-Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM; and Count of Saluran

Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM	Saluran count	Voter count	Percent
031/41/01	Manek Urai	Temalir	Sekolah Kebangsaan Temalir	2	983	8.0%
031/41/02	Manek Urai	Sungai Perial	Sekolah Kebangsaan Peria	4	2,019	16.4%
031/41/03	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai	4	1,890	15.4%
031/41/04	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Baru	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai Baru	3	1,093	8.9%
031/41/05	Manek Urai	Sungai Sok	Sekolah Kebangsaan Sungai Sok	2	980	8.0%
031/41/06	Manek Urai	Chuchoh Puteri	Sekolah Kebangsaan Chuchoh Puteri	3	1,517	12.3%
031/41/07	Manek Urai	Lata Rek	Sekolah Kebangsaan Lata Rek	3	1,094	8.9%
031/41/08	Manek Urai	Manjor	Sekolah Kebangsaan Kampong Karangan	3	1,049	8.5%
031/41/09	Manek Urai	Laloh	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Laloh	3	1,643	13.4%
Subtotal or count		9	9	27	12,268	99.8%
			Min	2	980	8.0%
			Max	4	2,019	16.4%
			Avg	3	1,363	11.1%
Table B: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM; and Count of Saluran
Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM	Saluran count	Voter count	Percent
031/41/03	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	Pos	1	12	0.1%
031/41/06	Manek Urai	Chuchoh Puteri	Pos	1	2	0.0%
031/41/09	Manek Urai	Laloh	Pos	1	11	0.1%
Subtotal				3	25	0.2%
Total voters					12,293	100.0%

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
Note: If you find the text too small, try pressing Ctrl and scrolling the mouse's middle button up or down to adjust the font size.


Tables C, D, and E show that:

• The 9 voting districts contain 27 voting streams (saluran),
• The smallest saluran contains 300 voters, while the largest 647 voters,
• All the postal voters are police voters, spread over 3 locations.
  
• Specific details on the 25 postal voters are available to researchers.

Table C: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Non-Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM, and Saluran Details

Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM	Saluran	Voter count	Percent
031/41/01	Manek Urai	Temalir	Sekolah Kebangsaan Temalir	1	350	2.8%
031/41/01	Manek Urai	Temalir	Sekolah Kebangsaan Temalir	2	633	5.1%
031/41/02	Manek Urai	Sungai Perial	Sekolah Kebangsaan Peria	1	350	2.8%
031/41/02	Manek Urai	Sungai Perial	Sekolah Kebangsaan Peria	2	556	4.5%
031/41/02	Manek Urai	Sungai Perial	Sekolah Kebangsaan Peria	3	556	4.5%
031/41/02	Manek Urai	Sungai Perial	Sekolah Kebangsaan Peria	4	557	4.5%
031/41/03	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai	1	350	2.8%
031/41/03	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai	2	513	4.2%
031/41/03	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai	3	513	4.2%
031/41/03	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai	4	514	4.2%
031/41/04	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Baru	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai Baru	1	350	2.8%
031/41/04	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Baru	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai Baru	2	371	3.0%
031/41/04	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Baru	Sekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai Baru	3	372	3.0%
031/41/05	Manek Urai	Sungai Sok	Sekolah Kebangsaan Sungai Sok	1	350	2.8%
031/41/05	Manek Urai	Sungai Sok	Sekolah Kebangsaan Sungai Sok	2	630	5.1%
031/41/06	Manek Urai	Chuchoh Puteri	Sekolah Kebangsaan Chuchoh Puteri	1	350	2.8%
031/41/06	Manek Urai	Chuchoh Puteri	Sekolah Kebangsaan Chuchoh Puteri	2	583	4.7%
031/41/06	Manek Urai	Chuchoh Puteri	Sekolah Kebangsaan Chuchoh Puteri	3	584	4.8%
031/41/07	Manek Urai	Lata Rek	Sekolah Kebangsaan Lata Rek	1	350	2.8%
031/41/07	Manek Urai	Lata Rek	Sekolah Kebangsaan Lata Rek	2	372	3.0%
031/41/07	Manek Urai	Lata Rek	Sekolah Kebangsaan Lata Rek	3	372	3.0%
031/41/08	Manek Urai	Manjor	Sekolah Kebangsaan Kampong Karangan	1	300	2.4%
031/41/08	Manek Urai	Manjor	Sekolah Kebangsaan Kampong Karangan	2	374	3.0%
031/41/08	Manek Urai	Manjor	Sekolah Kebangsaan Kampong Karangan	3	375	3.1%
031/41/09	Manek Urai	Laloh	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Laloh	1	350	2.8%
031/41/09	Manek Urai	Laloh	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Laloh	2	646	5.3%
031/41/09	Manek Urai	Laloh	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Laloh	3	647	5.3%
Subtotal or count				27	12,268	99.8%
				Min	300	2.4%
				Max	647	5.3%
				Avg	454	3.7%

Table D: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM, and Saluran

Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM	Saluran	Voter count	Percent
031/41/03	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	Pos	0	12	0.1%
031/41/06	Manek Urai	Chuchoh Puteri	Pos	0	2	0.0%
031/41/09	Manek Urai	Laloh	Pos	0	11	0.1%
Subtotal					25	0.2%
Total voters					12,293	100.0%

Table E: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM, and Saluran

Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	NamaLokaliti	TM	Voter count	Percent
031/41/03/701	Manek Urai	Manek Urai Lama	Balai Polis Manek Urai	Pos	12	0.1%
031/41/06/701	Manek Urai	Chuchoh Puteri	Pondok Polis Chuchoh Puteri	Pos	2	0.0%
031/41/09/701	Manek Urai	Laloh	Balai Polis Laloh	Pos	11	0.1%
Subtotal					25	0.2%
Total voters					12,293	100.0%

Manek Urai by-election fixed for July 14 29/05/2009 The Election Commission has set July 6 as nomination day for the Manek Urai state seat by-election while polling will take place on July 14. Chairman Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof said the commission was officially informed of the vacancy of the state seat on May 24 following the death of assemblyman Ismail Yaacob from a heart attack last Friday. He told a press conference here yesterday that the 2008 master electoral roll, updated on May 22, would be used for the by-election and would be available for purchase from June 15. According to the electoral roll, there are 12,293 registered voters including 25 postal voters in the constituency. The electorate comprises 99.22% Malays, 0.46% Chinese, 0.23% Indians and 0.09% others. The Dewan Petra at SMK Sultan Yahya Petra I in Kuala Krai will be the nomination and main vote-tallying centre. Nine schools will be used as polling centres. Asked if holding the polling on a weekday could affect voter turnout, Abdul Aziz said it should not be a problem as most of the constituents were farmers, fishermen and rubber tappers who were not bound by office hours. He said the commission was hoping for a voter turnout of at least 85% during the by-election which will cost the commission RM400,000 involving 350 election workers. The commission, he added, also agreed to allow Malaysia For Free and Fair Election (Mafrel) to act as an observer during the by-election but wanted it to approach the commission with any complaints or suggestions instead of going to the media. Voters can check for details from June 15 through commission’s website www.spr.gov.my via SMS by typing “SPR Semak” and sending it to 15888, or calling 03-8885 6500 or 09-748 2510. In an interview later, he said the commission decided to hold the by-election as far as July because there were too many functions next month. “The Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s birthday is in June, then you have the PAS muktamar (general assembly) and the Kelantan state assembly sitting. “The Dewan Negara meeting is also scheduled for June, so we decided the most suitable date would be in July,” he said, adding that the commission needed time to prepare for the by-election, the seventh since the 2008 March general elections. http://thestar.com.my Emphasis added

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Reports of Missing Penanti Voters Not Credible?

We doubt the claims that voters were transferred out of Penanti in a conspiracy, until we can see more convincing evidence. The only case with a quoted name appears to be an error by the voter, the political party PKR, or the media.

PKR claims and several media reported that around 8 voters were transferred out of Penanti without their knowledge and lost their rights to vote. We hope PKR would lodge formal police and SPR reports with full details.

For the only case where a name (Tan Soon Guang) was quoted in the media, we find the claim doubtful, because based on our databases of voter rolls (issued by SPR):

1. We cannot find any "Tan Soon Guang" at all in the country-wide GE12 electoral roll (gazetted 2008 Feb 5). No such person exists in that country-wide roll more than a year ago.
   
2. We cannot find any "Tan Soon Guang" in the Permatang Pauh by-election roll (dated 2008 July 31). Since Permatang Pauh P044 contains Penanti N12, it means this names also did not exist in the Penanti sub-division roll then. He would have had problem voting in GE12 and Permatang Pauh by-election as he claimed he had.
   
3. Assuming this is a likely misspelling of "Tan Soon Guan," we looked up but still cannot find any "Tan Soon Guan" in the whole Permatang Pauh P044 (which contains Penanti N12) in the GE12 electoral roll, or the Permatang Pauh by-election roll.
   
4. We did find 23 voters named "Tan Soon Guan" in the country-wide GE12 roll, but none were registered near Permatang Pauh. The closest were 2 names of "Tan Soon Guan" on Penang island under P048 Bukit Bendera (born 1940 and 1961), and 1 in P052 Bayan Baru (born 1976).

In other words, we cannot find the specifically quoted name anywhere in the previous and current electoral rolls. Even making a guess for the most likely misspelling (Tan Soon Guan), we still cannot find it anywhere in previous rolls near Penanti, where he was reported to have voted before.

Because we do not have the IC number, we have not checked against the ICs in the database. Without an IC number, we cannot verify that such a name has been moved to Bukit Mertajam and Berapit as claimed. But given that this name had not existed before, we wonder how it could have been moved.

Further, a Chinese-language printed newspaper reported that this alleged voter is 55 years old. We looked up a combination of all three dated rolls for:

• all voters aged 51 to 57 (born 1952 to 1958)
  
• whose names existed in the GE12 roll, but not in the Penanti by-election (2009 April 16) roll,
  
• we found 28 voters of this age, who have been deleted between the GE12 roll and Penanti by-election roll, excluding postal voters.
  
• However, none of them have a name anything close to "Tan Soon Guang." (The 28 include 22 Malay names, 1 Indian name, and 5 Chinese names - Chong, Foo, Lee, Lim, Chow.
  

Candidate cries foul as voters find names missing May 31, 09, MalaysiaKini.com PKR candidate for the Penanti state seat by-election Mansor Othman is upset that the names of several voters were missing from the electoral roll. He said that as of 9.30am, he had been informed that seven to eight voters could not cast their votes as their names were not on the list. ... Voter Tan Soon Guang was one such victim. He said that he had voted at the Jit Sin polling centre at the 2008 general election and Aug 26, 2008 Permatang Pauh by-election. This time around, his name was missing from the list of voters at the centre and a check with the EC's roll revealed that he had been moved to vote at the Bukit Mertajam Parliament seat and Berapit state seat. Pakatan Rakyat chief Anwar Ibrahim also revealed that three to four voters who had voted in the Teluk Wang polling district for last year's general election and Permatang Pauh by-election were transferred to Permatang Pasir, another state seat under Permatang Pauh, this morning. "We will launch a complaint to SPR after the by-election," he said after visiting Kampung Tun Sardon community hall. When asked if it will affect the voter turnout, Anwar replied that "it is not a problem". He said he was confident his party can retain the seat. Penang PKR assistant secretary Lim Boo Chang later informed Malaysiakini of another 10 cases of voters whose names were not in the electoral roll, including that of a 80-year-old senior citizen. He said that these 10 had had their names transferred to vote in the neighbouring Permatang Pasir state constituency without their knowledge and consent. It is uncertain if these 10 include the persons mentioned by Anwar earlier. Low turnout, missing names mar Penanti vote 2009 May 31, TheMalaysianInsider.com PKR’s Dr Mansor Othman, who has lost in three elections, faces three independents in a by-election that is his to lose. He has claimed to have received up to eight reports of voters finding their names missing from the Penanti electoral rolls during his rounds at the polling centres. Voters said the EC had transferred them out of the state seat in the latest electoral roll dated April 16. Penang chief minister Lim Guan Eng, who visited polling stations with Mansor and DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang, rapped the EC and called it a conspiracy to sabotage Penanti voters. 选民申诉被划入其他选区 本南地选民册仍错误百出 Machine translated 2009 May 31, MerdekaReview.com, in Chinese At least a printed Chinese-language newspaper has also quoted the, probably transliterated, name "陈顺光".

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Penanti - Racial composition by voting stream

Although we want to move away from racial politics, anticipating and analyzing racial composition of voting return by voting stream can still be useful for positive purposes: to neutralize negative campaign and to balance the information power of federal government versus the opposition/NGOs.

Use: Analysts can compare this table to the voting return, by voting stream (classroom), recorded by all party polling agents, to gauge the effectiveness of their campaign message.

Only the Home Affairs ministry and SPR know the officially-recorded racial composition by saluran (voting stream),

• The SPR does NOT publish racial data by DM, TM, or saluran (stream),
  
• Our algorithm is crude, but ends up with reasonably accurate and detailed results
  
• see Table B, where we compare our over estimations with "official" estimations reported by the media and http://undi.info.,
• Because any estimation bias is likely to be cumulative (not offsetting), a small error at DUN level would mean EVEN SMALLER errors at DM or Saluran level.

Algorithm:

• We estimate racial breakdown based on the patterns in voter names.
  
• The algorithm:
  
  • first filters for "Malay" names, starting with Bin, Binti, and all its variations, plus a few common Malay names,
  • then it filters for "Indian" names, by by A/L, A/P, D/O, S/O,
    
  • plus a few common Indian name particles, and spelling and vowel patterns,
  • the remaining are considered "Chinese"
• Admittedly, this algorithm is imperfect.
  
• This algorithm currently cannot handle the Thai and Dayak name pattern (as in Batang Air).
  
• Inside Penanti, the "Other" minority ethnic names, such as Thai names, tend to be lumped into the "Malay" category, inflating it by perhaps 0.6%-0.7% in Penanti. In other constituencies, it is often the "Chinese" category that is inflated by about 1%, by absorbing the errors.
• However, since the official figures show a fluctuation in the "Others" category between GE12 (0.1%) and now (0.7%), we have some doubts about the consistencies of the official figures on the "Others."
  

Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll
Ethnic Breakdown by Saluran - Estimation By an Algorithm by http://malvu.blogspot.com.
Note postal voters include non-police, absentee voters.

parl/DUN/DM	Saluran	NamaDM	TM	Malay	Chinese	Indian	Total	% Malay	% Chinese	% Indian	Total %
044/12/01	1	Guar Perahu	SMK Guar Perahu	346	4	-	350	98.9%	1.1%	0.0%	100%
044/12/01	2	Guar Perahu	SMK Guar Perahu	521	-	-	521	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
044/12/01	3	Guar Perahu	SMK Guar Perahu	521	-	-	521	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
044/12/01	4	Guar Perahu	SMK Guar Perahu	520	1	-	521	99.8%	0.2%	0.0%	100%
044/12/02	1	Kuala Mengkuang	SK Guar Perahu	345	3	2	350	98.6%	0.9%	0.6%	100%
044/12/02	2	Kuala Mengkuang	SK Guar Perahu	596	-	7	603	98.8%	0.0%	1.2%	100%
044/12/02	3	Kuala Mengkuang	SK Guar Perahu	598	1	4	603	99.2%	0.2%	0.7%	100%
044/12/02	4	Kuala Mengkuang	SK Guar Perahu	595	3	5	603	98.7%	0.5%	0.8%	100%
044/12/02	5	Kuala Mengkuang	SK Guar Perahu	602	2	1	605	99.5%	0.3%	0.2%	100%
044/12/03	1	Telok Wang	Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda	331	183	85	599	55.3%	30.6%	14.2%	100%
044/12/04	1	Mengkuang	SK Mengkuang	309	38	3	350	88.3%	10.9%	0.9%	100%
044/12/04	2	Mengkuang	SK Mengkuang	462	45	10	517	89.4%	8.7%	1.9%	100%
044/12/04	3	Mengkuang	SK Mengkuang	471	39	7	517	91.1%	7.5%	1.4%	100%
044/12/04	4	Mengkuang	SK Mengkuang	482	32	3	517	93.2%	6.2%	0.6%	100%
044/12/05	1	Sungai Lembu	SJKC Perkampungan Sungai Lembu	4	499	4	507	0.8%	98.4%	0.8%	100%
044/12/06	1	Penanti	SMK Mengkuang	166	169	15	350	47.4%	48.3%	4.3%	100%
044/12/06	2	Penanti	SMK Mengkuang	249	82	21	352	70.7%	23.3%	6.0%	100%
044/12/06	3	Penanti	SMK Mengkuang	279	59	14	352	79.3%	16.8%	4.0%	100%
044/12/07	0	Kubang Ulu	Pos	22	1	-	23	95.7%	4.4%	0.0%	100%
044/12/07	1	Kubang Ulu	SMK Penanti	185	153	12	350	52.9%	43.7%	3.4%	100%
044/12/07	2	Kubang Ulu	SMK Penanti	261	237	21	519	50.3%	45.7%	4.1%	100%
044/12/07	3	Kubang Ulu	SMK Penanti	294	195	31	520	56.5%	37.5%	6.0%	100%
044/12/08	1	Sungai Semambu	SK Tanah Liat	245	101	4	350	70.0%	28.9%	1.1%	100%
044/12/08	2	Sungai Semambu	SK Tanah Liat	305	191	7	503	60.6%	38.0%	1.4%	100%
044/12/08	3	Sungai Semambu	SK Tanah Liat	372	120	11	503	74.0%	23.9%	2.2%	100%
044/12/08	4	Sungai Semambu	SK Tanah Liat	388	109	6	503	77.1%	21.7%	1.2%	100%
044/12/09	0	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	Pos	1	-	-	1	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100%
044/12/09	5	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	SK Tanah Liat	291	53	6	350	83.1%	15.1%	1.7%	100%
044/12/09	6	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	SK Tanah Liat	434	72	17	523	83.0%	13.8%	3.3%	100%
044/12/09	7	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	SK Tanah Liat	419	93	11	523	80.1%	17.8%	2.1%	100%
044/12/09	8	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	SK Tanah Liat	394	118	11	523	75.3%	22.6%	2.1%	100%
044/12/10	1	Berapit Road	SJKC Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit	50	276	24	350	14.3%	78.9%	6.9%	100%
044/12/10	2	Berapit Road	SJKC Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit	80	444	28	552	14.5%	80.4%	5.1%	100%
044/12/10	3	Berapit Road	SJKC Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit	146	380	27	553	26.4%	68.7%	4.9%	100%
Total				11,284	3,703	397	15,384	73.3%	24.1%	2.6%	100.0%

Note: SM = Sekolah Menengah, SK=Sekolah Kebangsaan, SMK=Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan, SJKC = Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (China), SJKT = Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Tamil), SAR = Sekolah Agama Rakyat
Note: If you cannot see the full table width, try to click Menu>View>zoom out (or Ctrl-Middle-Mouse-Button-Scroll). Alternatively, click-drag to highlight the table, copy, and paste into Excel to view.
Note: You are welcome to contact us to understand more about this algorithm.


Table B shows that

• we have compared our estimations against the official ethnic breakdown (from UNDI.info and government figures reported by Bernama).
  
• These DUN-level comparisons are based on the older GE12 roll (2009 Feb 5 gazetted, data dated 2007 Dec 31), the Permatang Pauh by-election roll (dated 2008 Jul 31), and this latest Penanti by election (dated 2009 Apr 16).
• Comparing the latest roll (2009 April) at the DUN level, our estimates are very close to official estimates, with difference of 0.1% for the Chinese and Indian components.
  
• The difference in the Malay composition is larger at 0.6%, apparently because our algorithm lumps the "Others," mostly ethnic Thai names, under the Malay group in Penanti.
• But note there is fluctuation in the "Others" categories in the official figures between GE12 and now.
  
• Down at the stream-level (saluran), the error in absolute number should be even smaller, and the estimate should be useful for stream-level analysis.

Table B: Comparison of overall racial composition of Penanti, at different time, by different sources

Other Estimates	% Malay	% Chinese	% Indian	Others	Total
Our estimates for p044n12 ethnicity 090416 By-election for Penanti (This by-election)	73.3%	24.1%	2.6%		100.0%
SPR/Bernama 200904 (Note 1)	72.7%	24.2%	2.4%	0.7%	100.0%
Our estimates for p044n12 ethnicity 080731 By-election for Permatang Pauh (calculate for Penanti only)	73.2%	24.2%	2.6%		100.0%
Our estimates for p044n12 ethnicity 080205 GE	73.2%	24.3%	2.5%		100.0%
UNDI.INFO 20080205 (Note 2)	73.0%	24.2%	2.4%	0.1%	99.7%

Note 1: http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v5/news_lite.php?id=407049
Note 2: http://undi.info/ax/state/pn/2008/states/N12/P44.html
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Penanti - 15 Voters Share the Same Houses

Penanti contains relatively few cases of voters who have registered with the same address and house number.

Table A shows that:

• Three localities with house numbers have 15 voters registered at these addresses,
• For example, 044/12/01/006 or Permatang Pauh / Penanti / Guar Perahu / Mk 21 Padang Ibu, with the house number 320 contains 15 voters living in this "large address."

• Other DUNs often have even more voters registration at the same house number. For example, 85 voters were registered to live in the same locality and house number in Bukit Selambau.
  

Voter count	parl/DUN /DM /lokaliti	N12 Penanti NamaDM	NamaLokaliti	NoRumah Cleaned
15	044/12/01/006	Guar Perahu	Mk 21 Padang Ibu	320
15	044/12/06/004	Penanti	Penanti Mk 20	906
15	044/12/01/001	Guar Perahu	Bukit Berangan Mk 21	587
13	044/12/01/003	Guar Perahu	Mk 21 Guar Perahu B M	510
13	044/12/08/002	Sungai Semambu	Kubang Semang Mk 20	377
13	044/12/01/001	Guar Perahu	Bukit Berangan Mk 21	599
13	044/12/06/004	Penanti	Penanti Mk 20	696
13	044/12/03/003	Telok Wang	Penanti Estate Mk 19	491
13	044/12/04/006	Mengkuang	Mengkuang Titi Mk 19	452

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463 Penanti Voters Without House Numbers

Three percent of voters in Penanti are registered without specific house number. This rate is much lower than the nationwide rate of 1/3 without house numbers, but is higher than the Permantang Pauh average of 1.8%.

Some may consider Penanti (P044N12) relatively boring because:

• only 3% of its voters are registered WITHOUT a house number, or NoRumah,
• this rate is much lower than the incredible phenomenon that 1/3 voters country-wide are registered without house numbers,
• this rate is only slightly higher than Permatang Pauh's 1.8% rate of voters without house number.
  

Table A shows that:

• The highest rate of voters without house number in Penanti are in DMs of Mengkuang (6.4%) and Telok Wang (5.5%).
• The lowest rates are in DMs Tanah Liat Mukim 9 and Berapit Road.
• In total, there are 463 voters without house number, and about 1/4 are in Mengkuang DM.
  

Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll
Non-Postal Voters with Blank House Number Grouped By Voting Districts (DM)

Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	Count of voters without house number	Total Voters	Percent
044/12/04	Penanti	Mengkuang	121	1,901	6.4%
044/12/03	Penanti	Telok Wang	33	599	5.5%
044/12/01	Penanti	Guar Perahu	99	1,913	5.2%
044/12/06	Penanti	Penanti	51	1,054	4.8%
044/12/07	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	46	1,389	3.3%
044/12/02	Penanti	Kuala Mengkuang	61	2,764	2.2%
044/12/08	Penanti	Sungai Semambu	20	1,859	1.1%
044/12/05	Penanti	Sungai Lembu	5	507	1.0%
044/12/09	Penanti	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	18	1,919	0.9%
044/12/10	Penanti	Berapit Road	9	1,455	0.6%
Subtotal			463	15,360	3.0%
Postal voters				24
Total				15,384

Table B shows that:

• For example, 45 voters are registered without house number at 044/12/07/001 or Permatang Pauh / Penanti / Kubang Ulu / Kubang Ulu Mk 20.
• Such cases are less extreme than other places, such as Bukit Selambau, which has 20% and many addresses without house numbers but with over 300 voters in each.
  

Table B: P044 Permatang Pauh N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll
Localities with the most number of voters registered WITHOUT House Number (NoRumah)

Voter count	parl/DUN /DM /lokaliti	N12 Penanti NamaDM	NamaLokaliti	NoRumah Cleaned
45	044/12/07/001	Kubang Ulu	Kubang Ulu Mk 20
38	044/12/04/006	Mengkuang	Mengkuang Titi Mk 19
31	044/12/06/005	Penanti	Pondok Penanti Mk 20
31	044/12/04/003	Mengkuang	Mengkuang Mk 19
29	044/12/02/002	Kuala Mengkuang	Mk 20 Kuala Mengkuang
22	044/12/01/004	Guar Perahu	Kampong Terus Mk 21
21	044/12/01/002	Guar Perahu	Mk 21 Guar Jering B M
20	044/12/01/006	Guar Perahu	Mk 21 Padang Ibu
17	044/12/02/003	Kuala Mengkuang	Mk 20 Mengkuang Mak Sulong
15	044/12/01/003	Guar Perahu	Mk 21 Guar Perahu B M

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Penanti centenerians already cleaned out in August 2008

We analyze voter age groups and changes. The largest voter age group in Penanti is the 40-49 year-old group. SPR had deleted all 100+ year-old voters just before the August 2008 Permatang Pauh by-election.

Apparently to avoid embarrassment during the August 2008 Permatang Pauh by-election, SPR had deleted all 100-year-old voters in a cleaning overdrive by 2008 Jul 31. See our report here: Permatang Pauh Lost 25 Centenarians. Did SPR follow proper procedure?

We are able to make two pairs of comparison because we have three sets of voter data for Penanti:

1. 2008 Feb 05-gazetted data for GE12,
2. 2008 Jul 31 data under Permatang Pauh by-election, and
   
3. 2009 Apr 16 data under the current Penanti by-election.
   

Table A compares Sets 1 and 2, while Table B compares sets 2 and 3.

Tables A and B show that:

• The largest age group for voters in Penanti are 40-49 year-olds,
• The second largest group are 30-39 year-olds.
• The SPR deleted voters aged 100 and older, across the board, before 2008 Jul 31 data (in Table A),
• Since then, SPR has no need to delete any centenerians (inTable B),
• Table A's net decrease in voters, despite 6 months of newly-registered voters, indicated SPR was aggressively deleting voters by 2008 Jul 31, probably to avoid embarrassing anomalies before the high-profile Permatang Pauh by-election.
• Net voter increased only by 4 between the Permatang Pau and Penanti by-elections (in Table B).
  

Table A: P044 N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll Voters by Age Groups
Comparing 20080205 data with 20080731

			GE12	By-Election				GE12	By-Election
Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Gazetted	Date Date				Percentage	Percentage
Group	From	To	20080205	20080731	Change	Change %		20080731	20080731
21-29	1979	1987	1,789	1,845	56	3.0%		11.6%	12.0%
30-39	1969	1978	3,587	3,610	23	0.6%		23.3%	23.5%
40-49	1959	1968	4,096	4,086	(10)	-0.2%		26.6%	26.6%
50-59	1949	1958	2,912	2,900	(12)	-0.4%		18.9%	18.9%
60-69	1939	1948	1,753	1,726	(27)	-1.6%		11.4%	11.2%
70-79	1929	1938	958	923	(35)	-3.8%		6.2%	6.0%
80-89	1919	1928	275	253	(22)	-8.7%		1.8%	1.6%
90-99	1909	1918	40	37	(3)	-8.1%		0.3%	0.2%
100+	1884	1908	11	-	(11)	#DIV/0!		0.1%	0.0%
Total			15,421	15,380	(41)	-0.3%		100.0%	100.0%

Table B: P044 N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll Voters by Age Groups
Comparing 20080731 data with 20090416

			By-Election	By-Election				By-Election	By-Election
Age	Tahunlahir	Tahunlahir	Data Date	Date Date				Percentage	Percentage
Group	From	To	20080731	20090416	Change	Change %		20080731	20090416
21-29	1979	1987	1,845	1,943	98	5.0%		12.0%	12.6%
30-39	1969	1978	3,610	3,623	13	0.4%		23.4%	23.6%
40-49	1959	1968	4,086	4,083	(3)	-0.1%		26.5%	26.5%
50-59	1949	1958	2,900	2,883	(17)	-0.6%		18.8%	18.7%
60-69	1939	1948	1,726	1,696	(30)	-1.8%		11.2%	11.0%
70-79	1929	1938	923	891	(32)	-3.6%		6.0%	5.8%
80-89	1919	1928	253	234	(19)	-8.1%		1.6%	1.5%
90-99	1909	1918	37	31	(6)	-19.4%		0.2%	0.2%
100+	1884	1908	-	-	-	#DIV/0!		0.0%	0.0%
Total			15,380	15,384	4	0.0%		99.7%	100.0%

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Penanti - Very small and large voting stations

Where do Penanti voters go to vote? Penanti (P044N12) contains very small (507) and large (3,778) voting stations.

Table A shows that Penanti has 15,360 regular voters and 24 postal voters.

Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll

Parl/DUN	NamaDUN	DM count	TM count	Saluran count	Voter count
Nonpostal	1	10	9	32	15,360
Postal voters					24
Total including postal voteres					15,384

Table B shows that for the by-election of 2009 May 31, Penanti (P044 N12) will have:

• 10 Voting Districts (DM, Daerah Mengundi),
• 9 Voting Stations (TM, Tempat Mengundi), because the two DMs of Sungai Semambu and Tanah Liat Mukim 9 share the same TM of Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat,
• The smallest TM at Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu has only 1 Voting Stream (saluran), where only 507 voters can vote,
• The largest stand-alone DM is Kuala Mengkuang with 2,764 voters, who can vote at TM Sekolah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu,

• However, because TM Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat is used by 2 DMs, the maximum voters expected there will be a total of 3,778. This TM will have a total of 8 Voting Streams,
  
• Other TMs have 1 to 5 voting streams.

Penanti's May 2009 by-election roll details are very similar to its Aug 2008 details under the Permatang Pauh by-election. See http://malvu.blogspot.com/2008/08/permatang-pauh-official-electoral-roll.html

Table B: P044 Permatang Pauh N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll
Non-Postal Voters By Saluran

Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM	Saluran	Voters
044/12/01	Penanti	Guar Perahu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	4	1,913
044/12/02	Penanti	Kuala Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Guar Perahu	5	2,764
044/12/03	Penanti	Telok Wang	Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda	1	599
044/12/04	Penanti	Mengkuang	Sekolah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	4	1,901
044/12/05	Penanti	Sungai Lembu	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Perkampungan Sungai Lembu	1	507
044/12/06	Penanti	Penanti	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Mengkuang	3	1,054
044/12/07	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Penanti	3	1,389
044/12/08	Penanti	Sungai Semambu	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	4	1,859
044/12/09	Penanti	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	Sekolah Kebangsaan Tanah Liat	4	1,919	3,778
044/12/10	Penanti	Berapit Road	Sekolah Jenis Kebangsaan (Cina) Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit	3	1,455
Subtotal		DM count = 10	TM Count = 9	32	15,360

Note: Red text highlights shared TM


Table C shows that of the 24 postal voters, 23 are police and 1 is absentee voters.

Table C: P044 Permatang Pauh N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll
POSTAL Voters

Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM / NamaLokaliti	Saluran	Voters
044/12/07/701	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Pos / Balai Polis Kubang Semang	0	23
044/12/09/801	Penanti	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	Pos / Pemilih Tak Hadir	0	1
Subtotal					24
Total					15,384

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Understanding P044N12 Penangti state seat under Permatang Pauh

Where is Penanti, how many regular voters and postal voters are there? What have been their voting history? Undi.info provides much of the background information.

Penanti (N12) is a small state seat within Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency (P044), on the eastern side of Penang state, adjoining Kedah state. It is relatively rural within the urbanized Permatang Pauh.


The Penanti state constituency (See Wikimapia.org map) appears to:

• straddle both side of the eastern part of Kulim-Butterworth highway, mostly lying on the north side of the highway,
  
• be roughly bordered on the west by Jalan Abdul Kadir, Jalan Tanah Liat, and part of Jalan Arumugam Pilai,
• be roughly bordered on the north by P118 and P116 highways,
• be bordered on the east by the Penang-Kedah border,
• be roughly bordered on the south by the Mengkuang Dam hills, P129 and K120

• There appears to be a gerrymandering "tongue" that extends southeast into Bukit Mertajam, together with N10 and N11, which allows the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency to capture the new Bukit Mertajam police headquarters (and its 400+ police voters), while excluding the more urban areas of N13 and N15.
  

Look up Penanti at Wikimapia.org on its:

• satellite-map hybrid page and
• map only page

MAFREL operating center for Penanti is located at at: Dewan Jawatankuasa Kemajuan Kampung (JKKK) Bukit Indera Muda 14000 Bukit Mertajam.

It is next to a badminton court.

How to go there (See Wikimapia map): From Permatang Pauh go to Kubang Semang. After seeing a mosque go another 100m and look for the operation Centre on the right. There will be a big MAFREL banner.


Source of constituency maps: http://undi.info/state/pn.html


Table A shows that:

• Penanti electoral roll dated 2008 April 16 contains 15,384 voters
• This total is made up of 15,360 regular voters, 23 police postal voters, and 1 absentee postal voter.
• Penanti contains 10 DM, or Daerah Mengundi, or Voting District.
• Penanti contains 9 TMs, Tempat Mengundi, or Voting Stations (mostly schools),
• Two of the DMs share the same TM.
• The 23 police postal voters are registered at Balai Polis Kubang Semang.

Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll
Summary of Data By DUN

Parl/DUN	NamaDUN	DM count	TM count	Saluran count	Voter count
044/12	Penanti	10	9	32	15,360
Total nonpostal	1	10	9	32	15,360
Postal voters					24
Total including postal voteres					15,384
POSTAL Voters
Parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	NamaDM	TM / NamaLokaliti	Saluran	Voters
044/12/07/701	Penanti	Kubang Ulu	Pos / Balai Polis Kubang Semang	0	23
044/12/09/801	Penanti	Tanah Liat Mukim 9	Pos / Pemilih Tak Hadir	0	1
Subtotal					24

Voting history from Undi.info

PENANG: N12 - Penanti			Voters: 15,421
Party	Candidate	Votes	Majority
UMNO	Datuk Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid	5127
PKR	Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin	7346	2,219
Racial Breakdown	Malay: 73.00%, Chinese: 24.20%, Indian: 2.40%, Others: 0.10%
PENANG: N12 - Penanti			Voters: 14,808
Party	Candidate	Votes	Majority
UMNO	Datuk Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid	6195	667
PKR	Anuar Shaari	5528
Racial Breakdown	Malay: 70.1%, Chinese: 26.7%, Indian: 2.7%, Others: 0.5%
State Seats / Polling Districts	Guar Perahu, Kuala Mengkuang, Telok Wang, Mengkuang, Sungai Lembu, Penanti, Kubang Ulu, Sungai Semambu, Tanah Liat Mukim 9, Berapit Road,

Source: http://undi.info/ax/state/pn/2008/states/N12/P44.html
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SPR to dismiss Penanti winner for "pondok panas?"

SPR appears to be laying the ground to dismiss any winning candidate at Penanti who may decide to challenge the latest ban on "pondok panas." Will this be the first directly-elected Deputy Chief Minister in Malaysia? Will PKR defy the ban? Will SPR risk public outcry and dismiss the winning candidate on any pondok panas "violation?"

Update 2009 May 13: SPR has reversed its position and will now allow the set up of pondok panas as long as they are more than 50 metres from voting centers. The question remains: Will SPR be competent enough to clearly set out the border from which the 50 meters are counted, so that political parties have clear ideas to instruct their contractors to place the booths where they should be?

Update 2009 May 31: MAFREL continues to oppose the permission for pondok panas, now that SPR backs down and dilly-dally by not allowing pondok panas but allowing "information booth."

PKR continues to push the ambiguous limit. MAFREL continues to demand complete halt to campaigning. All See continued debate at:

• In the news: MAFREL stick to no-party booths demand
• Penanti heralds ‘a new election culture’
• EC/SPR reply to MAFREL’s no-party tent stand
• How far do PKR want to campaign on polling day?
  

---

Original Post

No less than the new chairman of SPR (Election Commission) has set the new and strict condition that candidates in the Penanti by-election may not erect "service booths" or "pondok panas" outside polling centers on polling day in Penanti on May 31. This is in addition to the warning that parties and candidates may not campaign on polling day (a rule that is widely understood but as widely violated without consequences in the past). Bernama quoted him as saying the penalty may be the forfeiture of the by-election victory.

However, Parti Keadilan Rakyat has vowed to defy the new no-pondok-panas rule, while observing the existing no-campaign-on-polling-day law. It reasons the law allows for pondok panas provided there is enough distance from the polling center and there is no canvassing activities.

PKR also cited the 2004 history when SPR banned pondok panas but reversed the ruling during the last hours without informing, and thereby disadvantaging, the opposition coalition.

PKR has also promised to install its candidate as the Deputy Chief Minister of Penang state government, which gives rise to these interesting questions:

1. Will this be the first directly-elected Deputy Chief Minister in Malaysia (albeit by only one of the 40 state seats)?
2. If PKR went ahead with erecting pondok panas (which is likely) and SPR went ahead to disqualify the winning candidate (also likely), what will be the reaction from voters and political parties?
3. How will be it affect the Penang governing structure?
   

The answer may lie in

• The precise wording of the existing election laws,
• The enforcibility of any additional guidelines by the SPR, and
  
• a good read of this SPR-published rule in a PDF file here: Penguatkuasaan Larangan Berkempen Pada Hari Mengundi Seksyen 26(1) Akta Kesalahan pilihan Raya 1954 ( 7 May 2009 )
  

A problem of border definition for "Voting Place/Station" (Tempat Mengundi)

A key problem with "pondok panas" is really the unclear or lack of definition of the border of the voting station, from which SPR counts 50 meters where no "pondok panas" is allowed. SPR has been vague historically, causing a vicious cycle of political parties competiting to be "close to the voters."

Does the 50 meters zone start from:

• the voting streams (typically classroom)? This would be a very small no-go zone, thereby even allowing pondok panas inside the fences where the school has large compounds.
• the yellow-tape zone inside the school area, behind SPR's own voter assistance booths, just outside the general areas of voting streams/classrooms? This would be clearly marked with yellow tape, but is still a narrow zone.
• the main gate of the schools typically used as voting place/station? This would allow pondok panas to be set up still close to the school gates.
  
• the whole length of the fence of the school? This will set a large and safe zone, but will make the political parties unhappy for being placed across the street and many houses away.

• And how about voting places that are not schools, such as public hall above a market place, and without clear natural borders such as fences?
• What if political parties' careless contractors just "dumped" the pondok panas overnight right next to the shool gates (right picture) - which unfortunately happens too often?
  
• What if some schools have very large compoungs, and some virtually no compound?
  

The SPR would do well by clearly defining the border of the "voting place/station" and by strictly monitoring and ensuring no-canvassing rule at "pondok panas."

This would require the SPR to mark the "inner zone" at least one or two days before voting day, because if pondok panas are to be allowed in the future, the contractors will have set them up before polling day, and will need to measure 50 meters from the inner-zone markers.


Below are SPR and PKR statements. Emphases are added in red:

Strictly No Campaigning On Polling Day In Penanti - EC April 27, 2009 http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v5/news_lite.php?id=407125 PUTRAJAYA, April 27 (Bernama) -- The Election Commission (EC) is to strictly enforce regulations prohibiting campaigning on polling day in the Penanti state by-election in Penang next month. EC chairman Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof said the prohibition covered canvassing for votes as well as setting up "pondok panas" (party kiosks) close to polling centres. He disclosed this after announcing May 23 and 31 as the dates for nomination and polling, respectively, in the by-election. Political parties should make full use of the eight days of campaigning from May 23 until midnight of May 30, he said. "I want to begin strictly enforcing the prohibitions in Penanti. Voters must be able to go to the polling centres without any hindrance. If possible, we want to make this the culture in future elections," he said. Abdul Aziz said there was no necessity for the party kiosks where voters checked their voting streams as the EC already provided such a service. "It's redundancy. We will provide additional counters for this," he said. Abdul Aziz said the EC would have meetings with the police this week on the enforcement of the prohibition and on the limiting of the number of supporters on nomination day and during the announcement of the election results. EC deputy chairman Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar said the party kiosks close to polling centres were a centre of tension as party supporters campaigned there. He said the police, returning officers and EC officers could stop anyone from setting up these kiosks. Election candidates and agents would be held liable for the party kiosks and individuals themselves would be held responsible for campaigning on polling day, he said. Offenders could be fined RM5,000 and, by virtue of the offence, cannot be registered or listed as an elector in any election or picked as a candidate in any election for five years from the date of the offence. "If the individual has been elected on that date, then the seat must be vacated," he said. -- BERNAMA PKR to defy EC's ban on 'pondok panas' Apr 30, 09 http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/103402 PKR will adhere to the Election Commission's condition to bar active campaigning on polling day, but will still erect electoral booths (pondok panas) near all polling stations during the Penanti by-election in Penang. The party also disagrees with the EC's rule to restrict the electoral campaign period for eight days from nomination day on Saturday May 23 until midnight on May 30, the eve of polling day. PKR national election machinery director Saifuddin Nasution slammed the eight-day campaign period as ridiculous, insufficient and inadequate for any contestants to prepare the election machinery, mobilise workers and supporters and disseminate their messages across to electorates. "A short campaign period is unjust and unfair," he told reporters after speaking at a public forum organised by the party Bayan Baru division's Youth wing in Penang last night. He said the party would start its campaign soon, well before nomination day, but would stop canvassing votes on polling day on May 31, to provide the cool off period for electorates. He said pondok panas were erected by political parties not to canvass votes but to compliment EC and provide an electoral service to voters to cast their ballots without much hassle. "It's a free service provided by political parties to all voters. I don't understand why the EC wants to stop this," said Saifuddin, the Machang parliamentarian. He also recalled that EC banned pondok panas in the 2004 general election, only to lift it before the polling day without informing non-Barisan Nasional parties. "Then Barisan Alternatif did not erect any pondok panas but BN did. We are going ahead with our pondok panas," he said. EC head Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof said political parties and their supporters will be prevented from canvassing for votes and campaigning on polling day in the Penanti by-election to allow a cooling-off period for voters to make their choice. "We have allowed a campaign period from the nomination day until midnight eve of polling day on May 31, and all parties will have to campaign within that (period),” he added. He also did not rule out the possibility that the number of supporters accompanying candidates on nomination day would be limited to a "sensible" number, so that the police strength can also be reduced. To this, Saifuddin pointed out that it was the duty of the police, not the EC, to maintain law and order during election period. "An election is a democratic fun fare for Malaysians. What's wrong in political parties mobilising its supporters by the thousands to accompany their candidates during nomination day? "EC should stick to its job of conducting a fair and just electoral process for all parties and people," stressed Saifuddin, who said the PKR election machinery was well oiled and geared up to secure a big victory in the Penanti by-election. Looking at a big win Disclosing that the party had identified its position, prospects, issues and problems it would face in the campaign, he said his team had drawn out a comprehensive and aggressive election strategy to tackle all obstacles to secure a big win. "We are prepared and up to the challenge in Penanti. I believe our winning prospect is good although we have to work hard to secure it. "We are looking at a big win," said Saifuddin who will head the Pakatan Rakyat election operations in Penanti. The seat fell vacant when former Penang deputy chief minister I Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin resigned on April 16 The state seat comes under PKR supremo Anwar Ibrahim's Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency - a PKR stronghold. In the Permatang Pauh by-election last August, Penanti voters gave Anwar a thumping majority of 3,276. PKR's Abdul Rahman Abdul Kadir won the state seat in 1999 before losing it to Permatang Pauh Umno chief Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid in 2004. He in turn lost to Mohammad Fairus last year. First-timer Mohammad Fairus took the seat with a majority of 2,219. He polled 7,346 votes against Abdul Jalil's 5,127. Former academician and PKR state deputy leader, 58-year-old Mansor Othman is the PKR candidate for the by-election. Although Umno has not decided on whether to field a candidate, Saifuddin believes the rival party would eventually contest due to grassroots pressure. He expects Umno to play up the issue of 'Mansor the outsider' to stir local sentiments during the campaign, but it would not have much impact on the result. "There are so many people who have contested and won outside their home state, including myself. "I am a parliamentarian from Kelantan and previously won the Lunas state seat in Kedah even though I was actually born in Singapore," said Saifuddin. Fairus issue needs to be addressed When contacted, Mansor, the PKR Balik Pulau division chief who was born in Bayan Baru, acknowledged that Umno would use the issue to stir local sentiment. "But I don't think it would work because people are more interested in service-orientated representatives, someone who can deliver. "Moreover I am not an alien to the area for I have worked for the party in Penanti since I was the state chief in 1999," he told Malaysiakini. Saifuddin however, conceded that the party needed to address the disgruntlement of PKR supporters and constituents over the "Fairus episode." An estimated 30 percent of the electorate is said to be unhappy over the manner the party leadership handled the controversy. "We will explain thoroughly on the reasons for Fairus to resign and the need to replace him with a new leader," said Saifuddin, adding that the former Penanti representative would also join the party campaign.

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