Although we want to move away from racial politics, anticipating and analyzing racial composition of voting return by voting stream can still be useful for positive purposes: to neutralize negative campaign and to balance the information power of federal government versus the opposition/NGOs.
Use: Analysts can compare this table to the voting return, by voting stream (classroom), recorded by all party polling agents, to gauge the effectiveness of their campaign message.
Only the Home Affairs ministry and SPR know the officially-recorded racial composition by saluran (voting stream),
- The SPR does NOT publish racial data by DM, TM, or saluran (stream),
- Our algorithm is crude, but ends up with reasonably accurate and detailed results
- see Table B, where we compare our over estimations with "official" estimations reported by the media and http://undi.info.,
- Because any estimation bias is likely to be cumulative (not offsetting), a small error at DUN level would mean EVEN SMALLER errors at DM or Saluran level.
- We estimate racial breakdown based on the patterns in voter names.
- The algorithm:
- first filters for "Malay" names, starting with Bin, Binti, and all its variations, plus a few common Malay names,
- then it filters for "Indian" names, by by A/L, A/P, D/O, S/O,
- plus a few common Indian name particles, and spelling and vowel patterns,
- the remaining are considered "Chinese"
- Admittedly, this algorithm is imperfect.
- This algorithm currently cannot handle the Thai and Dayak name pattern (as in Batang Air).
- Inside Penanti, the "Other" minority ethnic names, such as Thai names, tend to be lumped into the "Malay" category, inflating it by perhaps 0.6%-0.7% in Penanti. In other constituencies, it is often the "Chinese" category that is inflated by about 1%, by absorbing the errors.
- However, since the official figures show a fluctuation in the "Others" category between GE12 (0.1%) and now (0.7%), we have some doubts about the consistencies of the official figures on the "Others."
Table A: P044 Permatang Pauh N12 Penanti 20090416 By-Election Roll
Ethnic Breakdown by Saluran - Estimation By an Algorithm by http://malvu.blogspot.com.
Note postal voters include non-police, absentee voters.
| parl/DUN/DM | Saluran | NamaDM | TM | Malay | Chinese | Indian | Total | % Malay | % Chinese | % Indian | Total % |
| 044/12/01 | 1 | Guar Perahu | SMK Guar Perahu | 346 | 4 | - | 350 | 98.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/01 | 2 | Guar Perahu | SMK Guar Perahu | 521 | - | - | 521 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/01 | 3 | Guar Perahu | SMK Guar Perahu | 521 | - | - | 521 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/01 | 4 | Guar Perahu | SMK Guar Perahu | 520 | 1 | - | 521 | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/02 | 1 | Kuala Mengkuang | SK Guar Perahu | 345 | 3 | 2 | 350 | 98.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 100% |
| 044/12/02 | 2 | Kuala Mengkuang | SK Guar Perahu | 596 | - | 7 | 603 | 98.8% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 100% |
| 044/12/02 | 3 | Kuala Mengkuang | SK Guar Perahu | 598 | 1 | 4 | 603 | 99.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 100% |
| 044/12/02 | 4 | Kuala Mengkuang | SK Guar Perahu | 595 | 3 | 5 | 603 | 98.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 100% |
| 044/12/02 | 5 | Kuala Mengkuang | SK Guar Perahu | 602 | 2 | 1 | 605 | 99.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 100% |
| 044/12/03 | 1 | Telok Wang | Dewan Orang Ramai Kampung Tun Sardon Ara Kuda | 331 | 183 | 85 | 599 | 55.3% | 30.6% | 14.2% | 100% |
| 044/12/04 | 1 | Mengkuang | SK Mengkuang | 309 | 38 | 3 | 350 | 88.3% | 10.9% | 0.9% | 100% |
| 044/12/04 | 2 | Mengkuang | SK Mengkuang | 462 | 45 | 10 | 517 | 89.4% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 100% |
| 044/12/04 | 3 | Mengkuang | SK Mengkuang | 471 | 39 | 7 | 517 | 91.1% | 7.5% | 1.4% | 100% |
| 044/12/04 | 4 | Mengkuang | SK Mengkuang | 482 | 32 | 3 | 517 | 93.2% | 6.2% | 0.6% | 100% |
| 044/12/05 | 1 | Sungai Lembu | SJKC Perkampungan Sungai Lembu | 4 | 499 | 4 | 507 | 0.8% | 98.4% | 0.8% | 100% |
| 044/12/06 | 1 | Penanti | SMK Mengkuang | 166 | 169 | 15 | 350 | 47.4% | 48.3% | 4.3% | 100% |
| 044/12/06 | 2 | Penanti | SMK Mengkuang | 249 | 82 | 21 | 352 | 70.7% | 23.3% | 6.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/06 | 3 | Penanti | SMK Mengkuang | 279 | 59 | 14 | 352 | 79.3% | 16.8% | 4.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/07 | 0 | Kubang Ulu | Pos | 22 | 1 | - | 23 | 95.7% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/07 | 1 | Kubang Ulu | SMK Penanti | 185 | 153 | 12 | 350 | 52.9% | 43.7% | 3.4% | 100% |
| 044/12/07 | 2 | Kubang Ulu | SMK Penanti | 261 | 237 | 21 | 519 | 50.3% | 45.7% | 4.1% | 100% |
| 044/12/07 | 3 | Kubang Ulu | SMK Penanti | 294 | 195 | 31 | 520 | 56.5% | 37.5% | 6.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/08 | 1 | Sungai Semambu | SK Tanah Liat | 245 | 101 | 4 | 350 | 70.0% | 28.9% | 1.1% | 100% |
| 044/12/08 | 2 | Sungai Semambu | SK Tanah Liat | 305 | 191 | 7 | 503 | 60.6% | 38.0% | 1.4% | 100% |
| 044/12/08 | 3 | Sungai Semambu | SK Tanah Liat | 372 | 120 | 11 | 503 | 74.0% | 23.9% | 2.2% | 100% |
| 044/12/08 | 4 | Sungai Semambu | SK Tanah Liat | 388 | 109 | 6 | 503 | 77.1% | 21.7% | 1.2% | 100% |
| 044/12/09 | 0 | Tanah Liat Mukim 9 | Pos | 1 | - | - | 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% |
| 044/12/09 | 5 | Tanah Liat Mukim 9 | SK Tanah Liat | 291 | 53 | 6 | 350 | 83.1% | 15.1% | 1.7% | 100% |
| 044/12/09 | 6 | Tanah Liat Mukim 9 | SK Tanah Liat | 434 | 72 | 17 | 523 | 83.0% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 100% |
| 044/12/09 | 7 | Tanah Liat Mukim 9 | SK Tanah Liat | 419 | 93 | 11 | 523 | 80.1% | 17.8% | 2.1% | 100% |
| 044/12/09 | 8 | Tanah Liat Mukim 9 | SK Tanah Liat | 394 | 118 | 11 | 523 | 75.3% | 22.6% | 2.1% | 100% |
| 044/12/10 | 1 | Berapit Road | SJKC Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit | 50 | 276 | 24 | 350 | 14.3% | 78.9% | 6.9% | 100% |
| 044/12/10 | 2 | Berapit Road | SJKC Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit | 80 | 444 | 28 | 552 | 14.5% | 80.4% | 5.1% | 100% |
| 044/12/10 | 3 | Berapit Road | SJKC Jit Sin (A) Jalan Berapit | 146 | 380 | 27 | 553 | 26.4% | 68.7% | 4.9% | 100% |
| Total | 11,284 | 3,703 | 397 | 15,384 | 73.3% | 24.1% | 2.6% | 100.0% |
Note: If you cannot see the full table width, try to click Menu>View>zoom out (or Ctrl-Middle-Mouse-Button-Scroll). Alternatively, click-drag to highlight the table, copy, and paste into Excel to view.
Note: You are welcome to contact us to understand more about this algorithm.
Table B shows that
- we have compared our estimations against the official ethnic breakdown (from UNDI.info and government figures reported by Bernama).
- These DUN-level comparisons are based on the older GE12 roll (2009 Feb 5 gazetted, data dated 2007 Dec 31), the Permatang Pauh by-election roll (dated 2008 Jul 31), and this latest Penanti by election (dated 2009 Apr 16).
- Comparing the latest roll (2009 April) at the DUN level, our estimates are very close to official estimates, with difference of 0.1% for the Chinese and Indian components.
- The difference in the Malay composition is larger at 0.6%, apparently because our algorithm lumps the "Others," mostly ethnic Thai names, under the Malay group in Penanti.
- But note there is fluctuation in the "Others" categories in the official figures between GE12 and now.
- Down at the stream-level (saluran), the error in absolute number should be even smaller, and the estimate should be useful for stream-level analysis.
| Other Estimates | % Malay | % Chinese | % Indian | Others | Total |
| Our estimates for p044n12 ethnicity 090416 By-election for Penanti (This by-election) | 73.3% | 24.1% | 2.6% | 100.0% | |
| SPR/Bernama 200904 (Note 1) | 72.7% | 24.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 100.0% |
| Our estimates for p044n12 ethnicity 080731 By-election for Permatang Pauh (calculate for Penanti only) | 73.2% | 24.2% | 2.6% | 100.0% | |
| Our estimates for p044n12 ethnicity 080205 GE | 73.2% | 24.3% | 2.5% | 100.0% | |
| UNDI.INFO 20080205 (Note 2) | 73.0% | 24.2% | 2.4% | 0.1% | 99.7% |
Note 1: http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v5/news_lite.php?id=407049
Note 2: http://undi.info/ax/state/pn/2008/states/N12/P44.html
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