Manek Urai - superficial increase of 1 voter hides bigger changes underneath

On the surface, Manek Urai's voters increased by only one. But hiding underneath, there was 261 deletions and 262 additions among non-postal voters over the past 16 months. Another 25 police postal voters had their IC format changed, but remained the same persons.

Table A shows that, between the GE12 electoral roll (gazetted 2008 Feb 5 but dated 2007 Dec 31) and this by-election roll (gazetted 2009 June 4, but probably updated to May 2009):

• 261 non-postal voters have been deleted (ICs appeared in GE12 roll, but not in by-election roll),
• 262 non-postal voters have been added (ICs appeared in by-election roll, but not in GE12 roll).
• 25 postal voters (all police) remained, but have had their police ICs updated to a new format, eg, from R0072706 to RF72706.
• 1 postal police voter with 12-digit IC has moved out of potal-voter-district, but remain within the DUN. She is not counted as addition or deletion.

• In total, the net increase is only 1 voter, from 12,292 to 12,293 voters.
• This is a 0.008% net addition in voter size over about 16 month period.

Too graceful? We are beginning to suspect occurrences that small surface changes in by-election rolls seem to hide larger undercurrents in by-electoral rolls. After netting out the confusing police IC changes, addition and deletions seem to balance out roughly, netting only small increases. The small net increases are even smaller when divided by total voter size, and time period. We will investigate this phenomenon in another blog entry. In Penanti, there was 0.15% net addition of voters over 12 months since GE12.

Table A: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604 Compared to GE12 Roll of 20080205
Summary of Voter changes - IC-Name Combinations that Appears in One Roll and Not The Other

	DELETION	ADDITION	Net change
Voter IC exist in	20080205 GE12 roll	20090604 by-election roll
But do not exist in	20090604 by-election roll	20080205 GE12 roll
Count of Non-Postal Voter Changes	261	262	1
Same police voters with updated IC format	25	25	0
One police voter with 12-digit IC moved to non-postal address. Not an addition or deletion.			0
Total net change			1
Voters in 20080205 GE12 electoral roll			12,292
Voters in 20090604 by-election electoral roll			12,293