1001 Police IC Changes = 1001 Potential Confusions

SPR again slightly modified all police IC numbers. The same police voters actually remain registered in KT. But researchers who compare electoral rolls using IC numbers may mistake them as 1001 missing voters and - at the same time - another 1001 newly added voters. Such confusion had accounted for half the mystery and uproar about "900+ missing voters" in the Permatang Pauh by-election in August 2008.

Background: Confusion in Permatang Pauh

• In the Permatang Pauh by-election of August 2008, media widely reported that over 900 voters were "missing" from the by-election roll, and "mysteriously" replaced by other voters.(MalaysiaKini article)
• SPR reacted with indignation, but its press release only explained half the missing voters.
• Our investigation found that 400+ voters actually did not go missing.
  
• They were police postal voters who had had their IC numbers slightly modified, such as from R0012345 to RF12345, RT012345 to RFT12345, and G0012345 to G12345.


• Because IC numbers are the only unique identification for all voters, researchers comparing old and new electoral rolls can easily interprete the bulk change in IC numbers as missing and replaced voters.
• We need to compare the changed ICs pair-by-pair to ascertain they are the same names and directly-related but differently-formatted ICs. We provide a detailed table for the Permatang Pauh police ICs here in Table C in an earlier report.
  
• The issue is not only confusing to political parties and NGOs.
• The fact that SPR did not explain this change clearly means SPR internally must have also taken some time to sort this out, or figure it too complicated to try to explain immediately.

Again in Kuala Terengganu: 1,001 Police ICs are modified and shortened.


Table A shows actual examples of the types of changes made to police postal voter IC number in KT:

• Police IC numbers starting with R are converted to RF.
• Police IC numbers starting with RT are converted to RFT
• Starting zeros in number are eliminated.
• Some numbers that had 3 leading zeros are shortened to only 4 digits, such as G8495.
• We count 18 police IC numbers that have only 4 digits, following the letter "G" or "I."
  

Table A: Actual Examples of Police Postal Voter IC Modification in KT

Gazetted 20080205	Gazetted 20081205
GE12	By election
R0116871	RF116871
R0099584	RF99584
RT012038	RFT12038
RT009763	RFT9763
G0110312	G110312
G0011274	G11274
G0008495	G8495
I0113340	I113340
I0013732	I13732

Table B gives an overview of changes made and not made in KT:

• All non-police, non-military, non-postal, voters use the 12-digit IC. This does not cause any confusion.
  
• KT contains 1,035 postal voters:
  
• 7 are absentee postal voters, who use the regular 12-digit ICs. No change and no confusion here.
• 27 are army postal voters, who use military IC, such as T123456. Because there are no changes this time, there should be no confusion here.
• But 1,001 are police postal voters, using police IC numbers. Every one of these poice IC numbers in KT have been modified and shortened, when we compare the 2008 Feb 5 (GE12) electoral roll and the 2008 Dec 5 (by-election) roll.
  
• About 1001 possible confusions here.

Table B: Only Police ICs Modified Among All Types of Voters in KT

Type of voters	Count	Type of IC	Example	IC # modified?
Total KT voters	80,229
Non-postal voters	79,194	12-digit	123456789012	No change
Postal voters	1,035
Postal voters
Absentee postal voters	7	12-digit	123456789012	No change
Army postal voters	27	Army	T123456	No change
Police postal voters	1,001	Police	R0012345>RF12345	All 1,001
Postal subtotal	1,035

Recommendation: Again, we repeat our recommendation to simplify police and military voter registration by using their 12-digit ICs:

1. First, let police and military voters switch to a 12-digit civilian IC to simplify verification, update, and avoid duplicate registrations.


2. Second, make voter registration automatic with MyKad status and details at the NRIC Department, to avoid SPR adding another layer of (very common) mistakes during input. Meanwhile, make NRIC accountable to the parliament, to prevent Sabah-like IC mess,


3. Third, make SPR more transparent with the gazetted and quarterly electoral rolls. SPR has recently stopped the online publication of the quarterly rolls in PDF format.Given adequate data, NGOs and the media can actually help SPR avoid unnecessary confusion.

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

1001 Police Voters in KT

Of Kuala Terengganu's 1,035 postal voters, 1,001 or 97% are police personnel. Of these, 864 are registered at 3 police locations within the Ladang state seat (N15). Other than police personnel, there are 27 army and 7 absentee postal voters residing abroad.

Background: Postal voters generally consist of (See earlier write-up for details) :

• army voters (locality codes ending in 400's),
• navy (500's),
• air force (600's),
• police (700's), and
• absentee voters (800's).

KT's postal voters are mostly police voters (1001/1035 or 97%), including those in police HQ (IPD), Federal Reserve Unit (FRU or PSP), and contingent police HQ (IPK). To understand the Malaysian police structure and abbreviations, see these Wikipedia articles in Malay and English:

• http://ms.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polis_Diraja_Malaysia
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Malaysian_Police

Table A shows that:

• There are 1,035 postal voters in this by-election roll, 9 fewer than for GE12.
• Most or 894 postal voters are in Ladang (N15).
• Postal voters make up 5.3% of all voters in the Ladang state seat.
• Overall, postal voters make up 1.3% of KT's 80,229 voters.
  

Table A: Count of Voters and Postal Voters

Count of Voters
Election event		12th GE	By-Election
Roll gazetted		20080205	20081205	Change
Code	NamaDUN
N13	Wakaf Mempelam	20,573	20,629	56
N14	Bandar	18,953	18,833	-120
N15	Ladang	16,777	16,780	3
N16	Batu Buruk	24,022	23,987	-35
P036	Kuala Terengganu	80,325	80,229	-96
Count of Postal Voters (Police, army, absentee)
Election event		12th GE	By-Election
Roll gazetted		20080205	20081205	Change
Code	NamaDUN
N13	Wakaf Mempelam	2	2	0
N14	Bandar	101	100	-1
N15	Ladang	901	894	-7
N16	Batu Buruk	40	39	-1
P036	Kuala Terengganu	1,044	1,035	-9
Percentage of Postal Voters / Total Voters
Election event		12th GE	By-Election
Roll gazetted		20080205	20081205
Code	NamaDUN
N13	Wakaf Mempelam	0.0%	0.0%
N14	Bandar	0.5%	0.5%
N15	Ladang	5.4%	5.3%
N16	Batu Buruk	0.2%	0.2%
P036	Kuala Terengganu	1.3%	1.3%

Table B shows that:

• KT contains 1,035 postal voters in this by-election roll gazetted on 2008 Dec 5, ie, 9 fewer than 2008 Feb 5.
• 1,001 of 1,035 are police postal voters (locality code ending in 700's).
• 27 are army voters.
  
• 7 of 1,035 are absentee voters living overseas.
• The Ladang DUN (N15) alone contains 864 police postal voters, or 5.1% of total KT voters, (891 and 5.3% if we include the 27 army postal voters also in Ladang).


• Three police localities within Ladang contain 845 police postal voters. They are:
  
• IPD (police HQ) of KT with 413 registered police postal voters,
• IPK (police contingent HQ) of KT, with 67 police postal voters,
• PSP of KT (FRU), with 365 police postal voters.

Table B: Breakdown and Comparison of Postal Voters in KT (P036)

Postal Voters in KT - Polis					GE12	By-Election
Kodlokaliti	NamaDUN	NamaDM	NamaLokaliti	NoRumah	20080205	20081205
0361303701	WAKAF MEMPELAM	LOSONG DATOK AMAR	POLIS	157 G	1	1
0361311701	WAKAF MEMPELAM	WAKAF MEMPELAM	POLIS	A-188	1	1
0361402701	BANDAR	CABANG TIGA	BALAI POLIS CABANG TIGA	17/3	2	2
0361403701	BANDAR	HILIRAN MASJID	POLIS	1083	1	1
0361405701	BANDAR	PULAU KAMBING	POLIS	A1/1/2	73	73
0361405708	BANDAR	PULAU KAMBING	POLIS MARIN BALIK BUKIT		10	10
0361406701	BANDAR	KAMPUNG CINA	POLIS	3	2	2
0361407701	BANDAR	PEJABAT BANDARAN	POLIS	35C-3	2	2
0361408701	BANDAR	PAYA BUNGA	POLIS	1116 A	8	7
0361409701	BANDAR	PANTAI TERENGGANU	POLIS	861	2	2
0361501701	LADANG	LADANG	POLIS	1077 B	4	4
0361502702	LADANG	MENGADANG AKAR	IPD KUALA TERENGGANU		418	413
0361502703	LADANG	MENGADANG AKAR	IPK KUALA TERENGGANU	PEJABAT E3	60	67
0361503701	LADANG	BATAS BARU	PSP KUALA TERENGGANU		371	365
0361504701	LADANG	GONG KAPAS	POLIS	1613	6	6
0361507701	LADANG	BUKIT BESAR	POLIS	1548-B	9	9
0361601701	BATU BURUK	PANTAI BATU BURUK	POLIS	1453A	6	6
0361602701	BATU BURUK	KAMPUNG NIBUNG	POLIS	171	8	8
0361606701	BATU BURUK	CENDERING PANTAI	BALAI POLIS CENDERING		20	20
0361607701	BATU BURUK	CENDERING	POLIS	1736	1	1
0361610701	BATU BURUK	KAMPUNG KOLAM	POLIS	1667A	2	1
Total					1,007	1,001
Postal Voters in KT - Army					GE12	By-Election
Kodlokaliti	NamaDUN	NamaDM	NamaLokaliti	NoRumah	20080205	20081205
0361502401	LADANG	MENGADANG AKAR	23 SKN RAJD (AW)	-	30	27
Total					30	27
Postal Voters in KT - Absentee Voters					GE12	By-Election
Kodlokaliti	NamaDUN	NamaDM	NamaLokaliti	NoRumah	20080205	20081205
0361405801	BANDAR	PULAU KAMBING	PEMILIH TAK HADIR	177	1	1
0361503801	LADANG	BATAS BARU	PEMILIH TAK HADIR	U. KINGDOM	1	1
0361504801	LADANG	GONG KAPAS	PEMILIH TAK HADIR		1	1
0361507801	LADANG	BUKIT BESAR	PEMILIH TAK HADIR	VIETNAM	1	1
0361602801	BATU BURUK	KAMPUNG NIBUNG	PEMILIH TAK HADIR	LONDON	1	1
0361611801	BATU BURUK	KENANGA	PEMILIH TAK HADIR	LONDON	2	2
Total					7	7
All postal voters					1,044	1,035

Map Locations

IPD: Map location for the IPD should be here:

• Wikimapia.org IPD Kuala Terengganu
• my.streetdb.com IPD Kuala Terengganu

IPK: The map location from Streetdb.com for the IPK seems to be outside of KT parliamentary seats, a few kms to the north, in N11 (Seberang Takir) under P035 (Kuala Nerus)?

• my.streetdb.com IPK Kuala Terengganu

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

SPR Improves Voter Name Consistency, With Mixed Results

In the KT electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Dec 5, SPR has improved voter name consistencies by changing backquote (`) to single quote ('), and made some standardization of "Bin" and "Binti" formats, etc. But there were reversals, and accidental addition of double spaces into 121 names, etc.

Background:

• Previously, we had criticized the SPR for inconsistent input in voter names, such as "B," "Bn," and "Bin," that had contributed to difficulty even for SPR itself to catch duplicate registration mistakes.
• We observe SPR has improved some voter name formats.
• However, there remain inconsistencies, and accidental additions.
  

Table A shows that, between the 2008 Feb 5-gazetted roll for GE12, and the 2008 Dec 5-gazetted roll for the KT by-election:

• SPR has reduced 505 uses of backquotes(`) to 11 incidences.
  
• But added 121 names with double spaces within the names.
• The incidences of " B " in names have been reduced by 88, mostly standardized to " Bin ".
• The incidences of " Bt " in names have been reduced by 276, mostly standardized to " Binti ".
• There were other improvements and problems, with examples in Table B.
• Table A shows only the net change. For example, many "B" were standardized to "Bin," but a few "Bin" were reverted to "B."
  

Table A: Comparison of some name format changes in KT

Roll gazetted	20080205	20081205	Net Change
`	505	11	-494
Double spaces	0	121	121
BT	1228	952	-276
BT.	29	29	0
BTE	11	10	-1
B	777	689	-88
BN	1	0	-1

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back. We have found 2,434 voters in KT whose IC remain the same, but whose names have been modified. Most of the changes were to update spelling mistakes in names. Table B shows examples of other changes, which includes improvements and new problems.

Table B: Examples of Improvements and New Problems in the Latest KT By-Election Electoral Roll

Older, 20080205 GE12 Electoral Roll	Newer, 20081205 By-Election Electoral Roll
Improvement: backquote to single quote
JUNAIDAH BINTI SEMAN @ JA`AFAR	JUNAIDAH BINTI SEMAN @ JA'AFAR
NOORA`AINI BINTI JA`AFAR	NOORA'AINI BINTI JA'AFAR
Problem: Addition of double spaces in names
AZLINA BINTI ABDUL RAHIM	AZLINA BINTI ABDUL RAHIM
PATRICIA WEE CHWEE LIEW	PATRICIA WEE CHWEE LIEW
Improvement: deletion of army IC number from name
WAN ASMIDAR BINTI WAN AHMAD I/K T1076796	WAN ASMIDAR BINTI WAN AHMAD
ZAHANI BINTI ISMAIL I/K T1077955	ZAHANI BINTI ISMAIL
Improvement: Standardization of BINTI
NOROSZITA AYU BT MOHAMED	NOROSZITA AYU BINTI MOHAMED
ROHANI BT MUSTAFFA	ROHANI BINTI MUSTAFFA
NAFISAH BTE ABDULLAH	NAFISAH BINTI ABDULLAH
TUAN SHARIFAH AZURA BT. TUAN KUNING	TUAN SHARIFAH AZURA BINTI TUAN KUNING
Improvement: Standardization of BIN
ROS ISFENDI B ABDULLAH	ROS ISFENDI BIN ABDULLAH
MOHD KAMAL B OMAR	MOHD KAMAL BIN OMAR
Improvement: Addition of needed space
SURAILY BINTI SULONG @HASHIM	SURAILY BINTI SULONG @ HASHIM
WAN AHMAD ANUAR BIN W.EMBONG	WAN AHMAD ANUAR BIN W EMBONG
Problem: Deletion of needed space
CHE KU NAPISAH BINTI CHE ENGKU A. GHANI	CHE KU NAPISAH BINTI CHE ENGKU A.GHANI
KAMARIAH BINTI AB. ROSHID	KAMARIAH BINTI AB.ROSHID
WAN MOHD HAIRIE BIN WAN MOHD HANIF	WAN.MOHD.HAIRIE BIN WAN.MOHD.HANIF
Problem: Variation and deletion of BIN, BINTI
AZUWA @ NOR AZUWA BINTI MOHD NOOR	AZUWA @ NOR AZUWA BT MOHD NOOR
NORLIZA BINTI OMAR	NORLIZA BT OMAR
SHARIFAH AINUL FARIHAH BINTI SYED ABDULLAH	SHARIFAH AINUL FARIHAH
MOHD RAHIM BIN ISMAIL	MOHD RAHIM B ISMAIL

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

KT's Mainly Young Voters Include 46 Centenerians

67% of Kuala Terengganu voters are 21 to 49 year old. KT contains 187 voters aged 90 to 99, a deletion of 30 voters in this age group from the GE12 roll. However, There remains 46 voters aged 100 and more, a deletion of only 1 voter since the GE12 roll. Unlike Permatang Pauh, SPR did not completely delete the 100-and-older voters across the board.

First, some surprises and guesses:

• SPR had just gazetted a country-wide electoral roll a few days before, on Nov 28, 2008. Why doesn't SPR use that roll? Why does the SPR gazette a new roll on 2008 Dec 5 just for this by-election?
  • If you try to examine SPR's Website for the Nov 28 roll (http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/daftarj/daftar.aspx), you will find that you cannot examine the KT portion of voters.
  • You will need to go to the specific KT By-Election verification page here: http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/semakp36/prayakecil.aspx
• SPR did not delete voters 100-and-older across the board, as it did in Permatang Pauh. This could mean SPR is more careful to follow deletion procedure this time.
  
• SPR deleted 124 voters in the 80-89 year age group (10% of group), 30 voters in the 90-99 age group (13%), but only deleted 1 in the 100 year and older age group (2%).
  • This could mean SPR had already cleaned up the KT roll before GE12, and the remaining 100-and-older voters are those who are really hard to delete due to a lack of documentation.
  • There are only 2 voters born before 1900 in this by-election electoral roll.
  
  
• There was a significant percentage (12%, or 30 out of 243) of voter name amendments among voters aged 90 and above, after GE12. A cursory look indicates these are corrections and changes that improve consistencies, such as changing all "B" to "Bin" and "Bt" to "Binti." We will discuss this positive improvement in the next blog entry.
  


• KT's two oldest voters, literally, have been moved to the end of voting queue, again literally, by having their NoSiri and Saluran changed to the last. See write-up here.

Table A below lists voters by age groups, and compares them across the GE12 electoral roll (gazetted on 2008 Feb 5) and this by-election roll (gazetted on 2008 Dec 5). It shows:

• Most voters fall within the 30-39 and 40-49 age groups, ie, 23.5% and 23% respectively.
• There are 505 new and young voters in the 21-29 age group.
• But due to deletions elsewhere, overall voter number fell by 96, to 80,229.
• There were deletions of 124 voters in the 80-89 age group, deletions of 30 in the 90-99 group, but only 1 deletion in the 100-and-above age group.

Table A: KT (P036) Voters by Age Groups
Comparison with Earlier Electoral Roll

			GE12	By Election
Age	Tahun lahir	Tahun lahir	Gazetted	Gazetted			Percen tage	Percen tage
Group	From	To	20080205	20081205	Change		20080205	20081205
21-29	1979	1987	16,209	16,714	505		20.2%	20.8%
30-39	1969	1978	18,860	18,869	9		23.5%	23.5%
40-49	1959	1968	18,509	18,436	(73)		23.0%	23.0%
50-59	1949	1958	13,404	13,321	(83)		16.7%	16.6%
60-69	1939	1948	7,998	7,857	(141)		10.0%	9.8%
70-79	1929	1938	3,860	3,702	(158)		4.8%	4.6%
80-89	1919	1928	1,211	1,087	(124)		1.5%	1.4%
90-99	1909	1918	227	197	(30)		0.3%	0.2%
100+	1884	1908	47	46	(1)		0.1%	0.1%
Total			80,325	80,229	(96)		100.0%	100.0%

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Understanding P036 - Kuala Terengganu Parliamentary Constituency

What does the KT parliamentary seat look like on map? What are the state assembly seats (DUN)? How many voters are here and how have they voted in the past?

Background: Kuala Terengganu is a large parliamentary seat with 80,229 voters, split into four state assembly (DUN) seats. KT is larger than Permatang Pauh (P044), which contained 58,459 voters and 3 DUNS, where a by-election was held recently in August. The neighboring Marang (P037), green color in the map, is the only parliamentary seat held by PAS and the Opposition.

Under KT P036 itself during GE12, however, PAS won three out of the four DUNs, ie, N13 (Wakaf Mempelam), N15 (Ladang), and N16 (Batu Buruk), except N14 (Bandar). See http://undi.info/state/kt/2008/states.html. PAS won 8 out of the 32 DUNs in the state of Terengganu.

To view voting history, candidate names, and racial breakdown, please see Undi.info at:

• P36 - Kuala Terengganu http://undi.info/ax/state/kt/2008/parliament/P36.html
• N13 - Wakaf Mempelam http://undi.info/ax/state/kt/2008/states/N13/P36.html
• N14 - Bandar http://undi.info/ax/state/kt/2008/states/N14/P36.html
• N15 - Ladang http://undi.info/ax/state/kt/2008/states/N15/P36.html
• N16 - Batu Buruk http://undi.info/ax/state/kt/2008/states/N16/P36.html

Sources of map:

• Parliament http://undi.info/state/kt/2008/parliament.html
• State http://undi.info/state/kt/2008/states.html

Table A below shows that:

• Total number of voters decreases by 96 to 80,229 over 10 months, between the GE12 electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Feb 5 and this by-election roll gazetted on 2008 Dec 5.

Table A: Count of Voters and Postal Voters

Count of Voters
Election event		12th GE	By-Election
Roll gazetted		20080205	20081205	Change
Code	NamaDUN
N13	Wakaf Mempelam	20,573	20,629	56
N14	Bandar	18,953	18,833	-120
N15	Ladang	16,777	16,780	3
N16	Batu Buruk	24,022	23,987	-35
P036	Kuala Terengganu	80,325	80,229	-96

WikiMapia.org Maps

P036, Kuala Terengganu, is roughly outlined on the north and west by the Terengganu River, on the east by the South China Sea, and on the south by highways T101 and T100.

On Wikimapia.org map, you can see the following details, from the big-picture "woods" to the detailed "trees:"

1. Overview, but with few details on kampong or DM names
• http://www.wikimapia.org/#lat=5.2969467&lon=103.1296062&z=14&l=0&m=m&v=1
2. Good details on kampong/DM name, but difficult to fit into one screen:
• http://tinyurl.com/kt-kampong (short cut URL, same as below)
• http://www.wikimapia.org/#lat=5.3169022&lon=103.1320095&z=15&l=0&m=m&v=1
3. Good details street, building, and school names, but kampong/DM information not shown
• http://www.wikimapia.org/#lat=5.3117532&lon=103.1029022&z=16&l=0&m=m&v=1

We have saved and marked a WikiMapia map to indicates general areas of voting districts (DM, often centered around villages or kampongs) which we can find. Please click the below for a larger image on a new window.


Help put the voting stations (Tempat Mengundi) on the WikiMapia.org!

You can help out by marking all the schools and buildings on the http://WikiMapia.org site, using the feature to "Add Place." Use this URL http://tinyurl.com/kt-kampong and the more detailed http://www.wikimapia.org/#lat=5.3117532&lon=103.1029022&z=16&l=0&m=m&v=1) that will be used as voting stations, so that volunteers can find them more easily.

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Kuala Terengganu (P036) By-Election 2009 Jan 17

Polling day is 2009 Jan 17. Campaign period is 11 days, counting from nomination day of Jan 6. SPR will use the electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Dec 5, containing 80,229 registered voters, made up of 79,194 ordinary and 1,035 postal voters. SPR said there would be 36 polling centres, 143 polling streams, and SPR 877 workers.

Voters can verify their voting status in three ways:

• Online at SPR Web page http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/semakp36/prayakecil.aspx
• Via short messaging service, available until Jan 17. To do so, type SPR followed by identity card number and send the SMS to 15888. Each text message will be charged 35 sen.
• By telephoning the state EC office at 09-6221218 or 09-6236161 between 8am and 12 midnight from today until Jan 17.

Undi.info Summary

TERENGGANU: P36 - Kuala Terengganu Voters: 80,325

Party Candidate Votes Majority UMNO Datuk Razali Ismail 32,562 628 PAS Mohamad Sabu 31,934 IND Maimun Yusuf 685

Racial Breakdown Malay: 88.14%, Chinese: 10.94%, Indian: 0.65%, Others: 0.27%

TERENGGANU: P36 - Kuala Terengganu Voters: 72,259

Party Candidate Votes Majority UMNO Razali Ismail 30,994 1,933 PAS Dr Syed Azam Syed Ahmad 29,061

Racial Breakdown Malay: 87.50%, Chinese: 11.50%, Indian: 0.70%, Others: 0.20%

State Seats / Polling Districts N13 - Wakaf Mempelam Pulau Rusa, Kampung Paluh, Losong Datok Amar, Losong Penglima Perang, Losong Hj Mat Shafie, Seberang Baruh, Wakaf Beruas, Merbau Patah, Durian Burung, Sungai Rengas, Wakaf Mempelam, N14 - Bandar Tok Ku, Cabang Tiga, Hiliran Masjid, Losong Masjid, Pulau Kambing, Kampung Cina, Pejabat Bandaran, Paya Bunga, Pantai Terengganu, N15 - Ladang Ladang, Mengadang Akar, Batas Baru, Gong Kapas, Pasir Panjang, Bukit Bayas, N16 - Batu Buruk Batu Buruk, Kampung Nibung, Gong Tok Nasek, Bukit Depu, Kampung Kuala Ibai, Cendering Pantai, Cendering, Taman Permint Jaya,

Analysis - Grandma Maimun 'cycling' to Parliament

Source: Undi.info: Terengganu

• http://undi.info/state/kt.html (state overview and map)
• http://undi.info/ax/state/kt/2008/parliament/P36.html

Links for more news and analysis:

• SPR (Election Commission) Web pages
• http://daftarj.spr.gov.my/semakp36/prayakecil.aspx (Check voter registration online)
• http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pagemulahtml.htm (home page)


• MAFREL Blog on KT By-Election http://mafrel.wordpress.com/
• Challenges in KT http://www.thenutgraph.com/challenges-in-kuala-terengganu
• All eyes on 'Battle of KT' http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/94500
• 'Battle of KT': Anwar promises tough fight http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/94559(Map and table with constituencies' voting history)
• Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuala_Terengganu_by-election,_2009
• WikiMapia.org, Kuala Terengganu http://www.wikimapia.org/#lat=5.33&lon=103.14&z=13&l=0&m=h&v=2


• Undi.info: Terengganu
• http://undi.info/state/kt.html (state overview and map)
• http://undi.info/ax/state/kt/2008/parliament/P36.html (Kuala Terengganu details on voting history, voting districts or daerah mengundi, racial breakdown, with maps)

Bernama news:

Kuala Terengganu By-election On Jan 17 December 05, 2008 13:35 PM http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsgeneral.php?id=376536 PUTRAJAYA, Dec 5 (Bernama) -- Nominations for the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary by-election will be held on Jan 6 next year and polling on Jan 17, in the event of a contest. [Campaigning period is 11 days] Election Commission (EC) deputy chairman Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar, in announcing this after the EC meeting on Friday, said the respective writs and notices would be issued on Sunday and Dec 21. He said the dates were fixed after taking into account various factors including the weather forecast from the Meteorological Department which said that Terrengganu would be experiencing certain weather conditions in the near term. "The EC has 60 days to hold the by-election so there is no reason to rush it after taking into account the weather and year-end factors and the manpower needs because 70 per cent of the election worker comprise teachers who are currently having their year-end school holidays. "Jan 17 is the most suitable date because it gives all parties concerned ample opportunity to prepare, especially the contesting parties in the selection of their candidates," he told reporters at the EC office here. The Kuala Terengganu seat fell vacant following the death of the incumbent, Deputy Education Minister Datuk Razali Ismail, while playing badminton at Institute Aminuddin Baki in Genting Highlands last Friday. Wan Ahmad said the electoral roll which was verified yesterday and gazetted today would be used for the by-election. The electoral roll contained 80,229 registered voters, comprising 79,194 ordinary voters and 1,035 postal voters, he added. He said there would be 36 polling centres, 143 polling streams and 877 workers. The meeting also agreed to set up two election campaign enforcement teams to monitor the campaigning. Each team would be headed by an enforcement officer and would comprise representatives of the candidates, the local authorities and police officers with the rank of inspector and above. Wan Ahmad said Kuala Terengganu Mayor Datuk Razali Kassim had been appointed returning officer for the by-election and he would have six assistants. He also announced that the EC had agreed to the presence of representatives of the Malaysians for Free Election (Mafrel) as obervers in the by-election. The Mafrel observers would only be allowed in the polling centres on polling day and were prohibited from entering the polling streams, he said. "The laws do not allow anyone in the polling streams except the election workers, candidates' agents, voters, EC members and individuals allowed by the EC. "We still allow Mafrel to be observers like in the 12th general election and the Permatang Pauh parliamentary by-election but the conditions are strict because we do not want the conduct of the by-election to be disrupted," he said. Covering an area of 60,528.1ha, the Kuala Terengganu constituency is one of eight parliamentary constituencies in Terengganu and is regarded as important because it houses the state and federal administrative centres and is the seat of the state capital, Kuala Terengganu, which gained city status on Jan 1 this year. The rapid development of the place is reflected in the construction of structures like the Sultan Mahmud International Airport, Gong Badak Sports Complex and the Universiti Darul Iman (UDM)and Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT)campuses. The staging of the annual Monsoon Cup yachting race in Pulau Duyong since 2005 had helped put Kuala Terengganu on the world sporting and tourism map while the Islamic Civilisation Park is fast becoming a tourist attraction. Razali won the seat from PAS in the 2004 general election, polling 30,994 votes against 20,061 votes by Dr Syed Azman Syed Nawawi of PAS for a 1933-vote majority. He retained the seat with a 628-vote majority in the March 8 general election, polling 32,562 votes against PAS vice-president Mohamad Sabu (31,934). An independent candidate, Maimun Yusof, 89, polled 685 votes and lost her deposit. The constituency has 80,325 voters [in March 2008] -- 87.4 per cent Malays, Chinese (11.6 per cent), India (0.7 per cent) and others (0.3 per cent) -- and four state constituencies comprising Wakaf Mempelam, Ladang , Batu Buruk which is held by PAS and Bandar.

The above news and this news both reported the by-election electoral roll was to be gazetted on 2008 Dec 5, although the SPR by-election voter verification Web page does not confirm the date of gazette. Previously, we had questioned why the SPR was using ungazetted electoral roll at Permatang Pauh by-election.


Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Were 900+ Voters Deleted and Replaced in Permatang Pauh?

The numbers are about right - 951 voters were deleted from Permatang Pauh and replaced by another 961 since the 12th GE. But the reasons were technical and not too sinister. Still, the whole confusing affair highlights the needs for SPR transparency and voter registration reform.

Background: PKR has complained that about 900 voters were "missing." SPR is indignant.

PKR complained that (http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/88268): "The names of 900 voters are missing from the electoral roll for the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency. The names were in the last electoral role and the voters were eligible to cast their ballots in the 12th general election." SPR's reply (http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/88553): "Explaining on the 868 names which went ‘missing' in the ‘updated' roll, Kamaruzaman [of SPR] clarified today that there were only 158 names which were removed in the latest roll. The reasons why these names were removed among others include ‘wrong' voters registration, deaths, those who aged above 100 and deemed fit by the EC to remove their names from the roll on the presumption that they have passed away." More: "SPR Can't Explain 949 Missing Voter Names," Chinese language article by MerdekaReview.com. (Machine translation. Please note that machine translation provides only a "gist" translation; the result will contain funny translation mistakes.)

Our investigation did find that 951 voters were "deleted" after the 12 GE in Permatang Pauh, while another 961 voters were "added" to the by-election roll dated 2008 Jul.

But we also found that these changes were due to three not-too-cynical reasons and minor SPR mistakes:

1. The technicality of modifying police IC numbering scheme,
2. Regular voter registrations, inward and outward movements, and
3. SPR's dead-voter deletion overdrive.

Although the reasons are not sinister, there are lessons for the SPR: How can SPR avoid such public confusion and distrust in the future?

1. First, let police and military voters switch to a 12-digit civilian IC to simplify verification, update, and avoid duplicate registrations.
   
   
2. Second, make voter registration automatic with MyKad status at the NRIC Department. Meanwhile, make NRIC accountable to the parliament, to prevent Sabah-like IC mess,
   
   
3. Third, make SPR more transparent with the gazetted and quarterly electoral rolls. SPR has recently stopped the online publication of the quarterly rolls in PDF format.Given adequate data, NGOs and the media can actually help SPR avoid unnecessary confusion.
   

What's so complicated about the electoral rolls?

• First, we need to clarify which versions of electoral rolls are being bandied about.

• We believe the confusion arises from comparing these versions:

• the 2008 Feb 5 gazetted roll used in the 12th GE, with data up to 2007 Dec 31 (=2007Q4),
  
• The 2008 Jun 19 gazetted roll, with data up to 2008 Mar 31 (=2008Q1),
• The ungazetted supplementary roll with data from 2008 Jun 30 (=2008Q2),
  
• The 2008 Jul 31 ungazetted roll for Permatang Pauh, based on the 2008 Jun 19 gazetted roll, adjusted for subsequent deletions, but not additions, ie, deletion-type changes between 2008 Apr 1 and 2008 Jul 31.
  

• PKR members are probably comparing versions (a) with (d), because they are most likely to have the MS Access soft copies for these two. Version (c) is most widely available in hard copy printed from PDF files, and reflects a "flow," or change, data, not a "point-in-time," cumulative, data.

• In contrast, the SPR probably thinks in terms of versions (b) vs (d), since (b) is a gazetted version. Version (c) is an intermediate version, that is to be gazetted. If and when (c) is gazetted, the Permatang Pauh section can lead to further confusion, because its data are dated 20080630, and is a "prequel" to the by-election version (d).
  

• We will focus on versions (a) and (d), because these are the most accessible to the public, and also from where the questions likely arise. We will supplement the information with version (b) which we have built into a "pro forma" version.
  

If you haven't been completely confused, read on!

---

So what happened? We will explain our finding in 8 points:


Finding 1. The difference of only 10 voters between the 12th-GE and by-election rolls hides larger changes beneath.

Table A below shows that Permatang Pauh:

• contained 58,449 voters at the time of 12th GE roll gazetted on 2008 Feb 5,
  
• but now contains 58,459 voters at this by-election roll, dated 2008 Jul 31.
  
• On the surface, the roll has simply increased by 10 voters.
  
• But the underlying picture is a bit more complicated.

Table A: Comparing 20080205 and 20080731 Data

Date of publication	Gazetted	Data date	voter count	Comment
20080205	20080205	20071231	58,449	Used in 12th GE
20080619	20080619	20080331	58,761	Pro forma version estimated by Malvu.blogspot.com based on 2008Q1 changes
20080731	Not gazetted	20080731?	58,459	Used in this by-election

Finding 2. 951 voter ICs were deleted after the 12th GE roll, while 961 voter ICs were added to the by-election roll, netting the superficial increase of only 10 voter ICs.

Table B below shows that, between the times of the 12th GE and the by-election:

• 951 voter ICs were deleted. In other words, these voters existed in the 12th GE roll, but are now "missing" from the by-election roll.
  
• 961 new voter ICs were added. In other words, this many IC numbers were in the newer by-election roll, but had not existed in the 12th GE roll.
  
• Net result is the addition of only 10 voters (=961-951) on the surface.
  
• Meanwhile, 57,498 voter IC numbers exist in both the newer and older rolls. In other words, they remain valid voters both during the 12th GE and today's by-election.
• The number of 949 missing names cited in the MerdekaReview.com article above likely refers to the 951 deleted ICs (not names), less the 2 easily-explained police retirement cases,
  

• Our question is then: Were the deletion of 951 voters and addition of the other 961 voters reasonable and kosher?
  

Table B: Cross-Checking IC Numbers Between the 12th GE and By-Election Rolls

	Postal & non- postal		Postal Voters		Non- postal Voters	Comment
IC found in 20080205 but not in 20080731	951	=	491	+	460	These IC numbers were in the 12th GE roll, but now "gone" from by-election roll
IC found in 20080731 but not in 20080205	961	=	489	+	472	These IC numbers were not in the 12th GE roll, but are now in the by-election roll
IC found in both versions	57,498	=	1	+	57,497	These were in both the 12th GE and by-election rolls

Finding 3. Nearly half the changes involved an identical group of police postal voters, who have not actually moved, but have only had their police IC numbers slightly modified. This is enough to confuse the public, even apparently the SPR itself.

• Overall, there were 492 police postal voters in Permatang Pauh as of the 12th GE.
• One of them (G6014602) already had the "most updated" IC numbering format, and hence this IC number was not changed, "deleted" or "added back."
  
• Another two (I0013148 and R0071611) were permanently deleted after the 12th GE, probably due to retirement.
  

• The remaining 489 (=492-1-2) police postal voters had their IC numbers modified slightly, as we will explain later.
• This IC number change causes these 489 postal voters to appear to have gone "missing" en masse.
  
• The "missing" voters would total 491 if we count the 2 retirement cases mentioned above.
  
• Meanwhile, the same 489 postal voters' newly modified IC numbers make them look like 489 newly "added" voters. This likely happens because PKR, and even SPR itself, have no choice but to search the database by relying on the unique IC numbers, known in database parlance as the "primary index".

• This apparent and illusory "deletion" of 491 and "addition" of 489 postal voters account for about half the 951 "missing" and 961 "replacement" voters in the by-election roll.

Finding 4. The proof is in the detail: Let us look at all 489 pairs of slightly-changed police IC numbers.

From Table C below, we can see that the 489 pairs of old and new police postal IC numbers are nearly identical, having only these 2 feature changes:

1. All police IC # starting with "R0" or "R" in 2008 Feb 5 roll have been changed to "RF" in the by-election roll. For example, R0117812 has been changed to RF117812.
   
2. All police IC # starting with "G0," "I0," or "RT0" have been changed to "G," "I," or "RT" eliminating preceeding zeros. For example "RT007013" and "I0013642" have been changed to "RT7013" and "I13642" respectively.
   

Table C: Permatang Pauh's 489 Police Postal Voters' ICs as Formatted in Electoral Rolls Dated 2008 Feb 5 and 2008 Jul 31

20080205	20080731		20080205	20080731		20080205	20080731		20080205	20080731
R0117812	RF117812		I0016525	I16525		R0150393	RF150393		R0115049	RF115049
R0083450	RF83450		R0121314	RF121314		R0156472	RF156472		R0122015	RF122015
R0075343	RF75343		I0015495	I15495		RT017150	RT17150		R0075600	RF75600
R0110379	RF110379		R0106264	RF106264		R0121553	RF121553		R0117609	RF117609
R0066165	RF66165		R0144589	RF144589		R0099644	RF99644		R0082847	RF82847
R0094340	RF94340		R0147646	RF147646		R0116111	RF116111		R0125958	RF125958
RT007013	RT7013		R0116861	RF116861		R0072226	RF72226		R0114448	RF114448
R0084073	RF84073		R0136943	RF136943		R0119542	RF119542		R0129824	RF129824
R0117802	RF117802		R0087700	RF87700		R0147791	RF147791		R0154684	RF154684
R0116501	RF116501		R0070383	RF70383		R0064730	RF64730		I0017421	I17421
R0075162	RF75162		R0106695	RF106695		R0122041	RF122041		R0118150	RF118150
R0104241	RF104241		R0119208	RF119208		R0066504	RF66504		R0096855	RF96855
R0081895	RF81895		R0098386	RF98386		R0152192	RF152192		R0150957	RF150957
R0064863	RF64863		R0092672	RF92672		R0120416	RF120416		R0155317	RF155317
R0133195	RF133195		R0105778	RF105778		R0160854	RF160854		R0106314	RF106314
I0013642	I13642		R0086517	RF86517		R0096185	RF96185		R0090262	RF90262
R0110443	RF110443		R0072837	RF72837		R0109868	RF109868		R0087460	RF87460
R0150829	RF150829		R0146826	RF146826		G0016759	G16759		R0070168	RF70168
R0104462	RF104462		G0010340	G10340		R0016140	RF16140		R0120817	RF120817
R0098522	RF98522		R0118270	RF118270		R0150851	RF150851		R0138717	RF138717
R0157454	RF157454		R0098446	RF98446		R0152253	RF152253		R0123647	RF123647
R0126342	RF126342		R0087746	RF87746		R0146804	RF146804		R0118151	RF118151
R0147641	RF147641		R0088872	RF88872		RT017092	RT17092		R0209015	RF209015
R0148019	RF148019		R0069129	RF69129		I0015669	I15669		R0122707	RF122707
R0111866	RF111866		R0082303	RF82303		R0074986	RF74986		R0127487	RF127487
R0109440	RF109440		R0059576	RF59576		R0102538	RF102538		R0135769	RF135769
RT009714	RT9714		RT009593	RT9593		R0121104	RF121104		R0104206	RF104206
R0092824	RF92824		R0104216	RF104216		I0016952	I16952		R0118437	RF118437
R0090872	RF90872		R0083428	RF83428		R0092461	RF92461		R0100972	RF100972
R0120704	RF120704		R0066678	RF66678		I0010102	I10102		R4068948	RF4068948
R0066493	RF66493		R0096059	RF96059		RT013524	RT13524		I0013105	I13105
R0103016	RF103016		R0007020	RF7020		R0119522	RF119522		R0087568	RF87568
R0115002	RF115002		R0101088	RF101088		G0015784	G15784		R0118571	RF118571
R0069264	RF69264		R0084978	RF84978		R0150373	RF150373		R0094393	RF94393
R0096808	RF96808		R0075855	RF75855		R0075364	RF75364		R0089600	RF89600
R0072849	RF72849		R065263	RF65263		R0117352	RF117352		R0157902	RF157902
R0122428	RF122428		R0118501	RF118501		R0099634	RF99634		R0146815	RF146815
R0075559	RF75559		R0094191	RF94191		R0156050	RF156050		R0127383	RF127383
G0009929	G9929		R0101759	RF101759		I0013498	I13498		R0082005	RF82005
R0099581	RF99581		R0112305	RF112305		R0115735	RF115735		R0084519	RF84519
R0161034	RF161034		R0110411	RF110411		R0059422	RF59422		R0118524	RF118524
R0071196	RF71196		I0015858	I15858		R0085050	RF85050		R0139560	RF139560
R0086272	RF86272		R0117385	RF117385		R0118247	RF118247		R0081950	RF81950
R0058643	RF58643		R0087723	RF87723		R0150756	RF150756		R0071496	RF71496
I0017140	I17140		R0073939	RF73939		I0009048	I9048		R0092831	RF92831
R0111890	RF111890		R0121980	RF121980		R0112759	RF112759		R0094451	RF94451
R0158318	RF158318		R0082276	RF82276		R0124857	RF124857		R0085785	RF85785
R0122429	RF122429		R0117288	RF117288		R0110132	RF110132		R0090295	RF90295
R0101127	RF101127		R0104469	RF104469		R0065091	RF65091		R0141877	RF141877
R0109306	RF109306		R0111437	RF111437		R0074980	RF74980		RT012073	RT12073
R0139177	RF139177		I0016109	I16109		R0159393	RF159393		I0016795	I16795
R0153224	RF153224		R0138304	RF138304		R0074313	RF74313		R0138322	RF138322
R0154666	RF154666		R0152268	RF152268		RT017098	RT17098		R0141991	RF141991
R0067147	RF67147		R0138920	RF138920		R0144493	RF144493		R0069164	RF69164
R0106936	RF106936		R0120262	RF120262		R0111938	RF111938		I0010825	I10825
R0103900	RF103900		R0075173	RF75173		R0145358	RF145358		R0094306	RF94306
R0113253	RF113253		R0108918	RF108918		R0118325	RF118325		I0008287	I8287
R0102111	RF102111		R0089312	RF89312		R0116414	RF116414		R0121418	RF121418
R0137757	RF137757		R0097853	RF97853		R0150400	RF150400		RT007425	RT7425
R0125261	RF125261		R0084200	RF84200		R0106883	RF106883		R0127275	RF127275
R0117266	RF117266		R0090007	RF90007		R0100604	RF100604		R0090619	RF90619
R0110136	RF110136		R0138733	RF138733		R0102610	RF102610		R0119829	RF119829
R0089976	RF89976		RT007021	RT7021		R0069725	RF69725		R0111099	RF111099
I0015980	I15980		R0085327	RF85327		R0092344	RF92344		R0101869	RF101869
R0092005	RF92005		R0072814	RF72814		R0085523	RF85523		I0014237	I14237
R0115609	RF115609		R0073548	RF73548		R0075596	RF75596		R0069567	RF69567
R0129826	RF129826		R0120282	RF120282		G0010593	G10593		R0086808	RF86808
R0095077	RF95077		R0107024	RF107024		R0102663	RF102663		R0102645	RF102645
R0098789	RF98789		I0011269	I11269		R0068305	RF68305		I0013908	I13908
R0075212	RF75212		I0016783	I16783		R0073304	RF73304		R0069521	RF69521
R0066339	RF66339		R0089026	RF89026		R0106103	RF106103		R0148427	RF148427
R0116504	RF116504		R0102937	RF102937		R0094390	RF94390		R0116417	RF116417
R0060135	RF60135		R0123190	RF123190		R0119640	RF119640		R0131568	RF131568
R0106581	RF106581		R0110041	RF110041		I0014965	I14965		G0016185	G16185
R0090416	RF90416		R0103029	RF103029		R0119068	RF119068		R0110449	RF110449
R0066610	RF66610		R0098627	RF98627		R0138208	RF138208		R0070173	RF70173
R0113312	RF113312		R0099137	RF99137		R0138214	RF138214		R0105197	RF105197
R0097230	RF97230		R0069353	RF69353		R0075774	RF75774		R0160886	RF160886
I0017068	I17068		R0114111	RF114111		R0137764	RF137764		R0121142	RF121142
R0127064	RF127064		R0155827	RF155827		R0111484	RF111484		R0136263	RF136263
R0118159	RF118159		R0067825	RF67825		R0102302	RF102302		R0068361	RF68361
R0054978	RF54978		R0104197	RF104197		R0138212	RF138212		R0126897	RF126897
R0092037	RF92037		R0055360	RF55360		R0115649	RF115649		R0109539	RF109539
R0115637	RF115637		R0102590	RF102590		R0105562	RF105562		R0106522	RF106522
R0088651	RF88651		R0092888	RF92888		R0118252	RF118252		R0114994	RF114994
RT015000	RT15000		R0092114	RF92114		R0068148	RF68148		R0097692	RF97692
R0116711	RF116711		R0118351	RF118351		R0105909	RF105909		RT009716	RT9716
R0094465	RF94465		R0054938	RF54938		R0103137	RF103137		RT007026	RT7026
R0069476	RF69476		RT011990	RT11990		R0129943	RF129943		R0093626	RF93626
R0088717	RF88717		RT011958	RT11958		R0137820	RF137820		R0064917	RF64917
R0124440	RF124440		RT011988	RT11988		I0016516	I16516		R0098125	RF98125
R0072179	RF72179		R0073400	RF73400		R0155013	RF155013		R0116034	RF116034
I0013491	I13491		RT007035	RT7035		R0069136	RF69136		R0117340	RF117340
R0091444	RF91444		R0058175	RF58175		R0101891	RF101891		R0132520	RF132520
R0098521	RF98521		R0066078	RF66078		R0107972	RF107972		R0104387	RF104387
R0059415	RF59415		R0102961	RF102961		R0066208	RF66208		R0091382	RF91382
I0016226	I16226		R0122779	RF122779		R0087491	RF87491		R0113831	RF113831
R0090962	RF90962		R0082794	RF82794		R0059684	RF59684		R0085849	RF85849
R0063770	RF63770		R0067988	RF67988		I0014150	I14150		R0122598	RF122598
R0090810	RF90810		I0014091	I14091		R0100837	RF100837		R0116364	RF116364
R0092038	RF92038		R0138088	RF138088		RT012082	RT12082		R0104209	RF104209
R0095087	RF95087		R0118936	RF118936		R0098885	RF98885		R0117549	RF117549
R0137143	RF137143		I0015279	I15279		R0068460	RF68460		R0139473	RF139473
R0088718	RF88718		G0010459	G10459		R0105514	RF105514		R0125742	RF125742
I0012513	I12513		R0116946	RF116946		R0102949	RF102949		R0126530	RF126530
G0009068	G9068		R0139514	RF139514		R0157897	RF157897		R0094339	RF94339
R0092019	RF92019		R0108885	RF108885		RT007037	RT7037		R0113963	RF113963
R0108073	RF108073		I0016617	I16617		R0090997	RF90997		R0072823	RF72823
R0085982	RF85982		RT016618	RT16618		R0091885	RF91885		R0133525	RF133525
R0089495	RF89495		G0010714	G10714		R0088438	RF88438		R0100831	RF100831
R0139568	RF139568		R0118710	RF118710		R0064739	RF64739		R0110553	RF110553
RT015968	RT15968		R0101581	RF101581		R0092126	RF92126		I0013880	I13880
R0094405	RF94405		R0146589	RF146589		R0085474	RF85474		R0124820	RF124820
R0100609	RF100609		R0094259	RF94259		R0071032	RF71032		R0139594	RF139594
R0150986	RF150986		R0085635	RF85635		R0069950	RF69950		R0116477	RF116477
R0090113	RF90113		RT016106	RT16106		R0075273	RF75273		R0082136	RF82136
R0105635	RF105635		R0152652	RF152652		R0118573	RF118573		R0070484	RF70484
R0127580	RF127580		R0110021	RF110021		R0138188	RF138188		R0063476	RF63476
R0091637	RF91637		R0111843	RF111843		R0067341	RF67341		R0072256	RF72256
R0119628	RF119628		R0139485	RF139485		R0105516	RF105516		R0136959	RF136959
R0089897	RF89897		R0145798	RF145798		R0131432	RF131432
R0072131	RF72131		I0016650	I16650		R0130748	RF130748
R0106937	RF106937		I0012250	I12250		R0107051	RF107051

Note: If you can't see the whole table width, reduce your browser text size (Menu>View>Text Size). You can also click, drag, highlight the table, copy, and paste special, value, into your Excel spreadsheet for easier viewing.


Finding 5: SPR did a poor and confusing job in modifying these police IC numbers, and in explaining the changes.

While we now understand that 489 police postal voters really did not move in or out of Permatang Pauh, there remain other questions and expected problems:

• SPR should have expected this IC number confusion, should have been ready to explain the changes, thereby preempting a loss to its own credibility.
• This postal IC number modification occurred in a rush, only after the 2008 Jun 19 gazetted roll, in which we can find the old-formatted IC numbers. Confirming this timing is that we cannot find these "deletion" or "addition" in the 2008Q1 supplementary roll.
  
• The changes do not look permanent. Any further changes will again invite confusion. Some of the "new format" police IC numbers are too short or too long to be a standardized, permanent, format:
  
• Most of the IC#s are preceded by one or two alphabets, followed by 6 digits,
• But there are IC#s followed by only 4-5 digits, for example, RT9714, G9929, and I13642.
  
• There is an IC# followed by 7 digits, ie, RF4068948. With the "RF" prefix, this IC# has 9 characters in all, and is a non-standard occurrence.
• With the above oddities, we would expect SPR at anytime to add back the zeros to the shorter IC#s make them a standard length, reigniting confusion.
  
• A separate matter is that about 404 of the "Bukit Mertajam" police HQ/station officers have probably been gerrymandered into the "Permatang Pauh" seat. We will deal with the geographical question another time.

Why did SPR risk confusion to modify the police IC numbers? We believe SPR "shortened" the police IC numbers to preempt any embarrassing discovery of duplicate registrations of postal voters, as reported earlier:

• MalaysiaKini.com reported just before the 12th GE that computer programmer Ong Guan Sin had found 278 pairs of such double-registered voters that differ by a leading zero.
• With a complete database, we later found 771 such doppelgängers that differ by a leading zero, or only different by the initial "R0" and "RF."

Obviously, the SPR didn't anticipate that this IC-shortening move itself would cause new internal and external confusions.

The solution to this and future problems? Switch to using 12-digit civilian ICs for all postal (police and military) voters. Aren't they exercising their civilian duties when voting? Aren't they born civilian? Haven't they received the MyKad and 12-digit IC numbers by the age of 12 - before they enter the police and army? Aren't they going to retire as civilians?

Moreover, we feel the SPR also does not fully realize that many of the duplicated postal registration also involve input mistakes and variations in names (Nama) and year of birth (Tahunlahir), albeit not in P044. See Tables B and C in "771 doppelgängers." It is these second and third layers of input mistakes at SPR's voter registration procedure that caused the errors to be so difficult to trace.

The solution to this and future problem? Make voter registration automatic, as they attain their MyKad and 12-digit ICs.


Finding 6: The deletion of 460 non-postal voters after the 12th GE is more dicey. We can only trace 218 of the 460 deletions - given SPR's lack of transparency. The remaining 242 could have contained the 5 embarrassing cases of "alive-and-well but deleted-as-dead" voters documented by the media and NGO.

Table D tells us that:

• 460 of the 951 voter ICs deleted were non-postal voters
• Our investigation of the 2008Q1 supplemental roll revealed that 84 voters were deleted because they moved out of P044, and 89 deceased voters were deleted. SPR was going through an aggressive campaign to clean up cumulated dead voters across the country.
• In total, SPR deleted 173 (=84+89) voters from Permatang Pauh in 2008Q1. We have recorded this finding in our earlier blog "Pro Forma Electoral Roll for P044 for 2008Q1."

• That means SPR deleted the remaining 287 (=460-173) during 2008Q2 (April, May, June), and also in July.
• We cannot trace what happened then because SPR stopped publishing supplemental roll for 2008Q2, and only displayed the hard copies in post offices.

• Further, we can tell by manually checking SPR's P044 by-election voter verification Web page, that SPR deleted all voters age 100 or more across the board, which account for 25 voter deletion after the 2008 Jun 19 gazetted roll. We have documented this apparent "stroke-of-a-pen deletion of centenarians here."
• Further, SPR deleted a total of 20 voters aged 86 to 89 years old.

• In all, we can trace 218 (=84+89+25+20) of the 460 deletions of non-postal voters so far.
• That leaves 242 deletions of non-postal voters to be explained.

Table D: Accounting for deletion of 951 voters after the 12th GE

Voter changes	Number of Voters	Number of Voters
Number of voter ICs deleted after 12th GE		951
Number of postal voter IC deleted/modified		491
Number of non-postal voter IC deleted		460
2008 Jun 19 gazetted list (data as of 2008 Mar 31, we calculate from our pro forma version)
Deletion of voters for moving out reported in 2008Q1	84
Deletion of voters due to death reported in 2008Q1	89
Subtotal - Deletion reported in 2008Q1		173
Number of deletions to explain for 2008Q2 and 2008 July		287
SPR deletion of all voters 100 or older in April, May, June, July	25
SPR deletion of voters 86 to 99 years old in April, May, June, July	20
Subtotal - Deletion of 86+ year voters in 2008Q2 and up to July 31		45
Number of non-postal deletion we can trace	218
Number of deletions to explain		242

From recent pattern of a special SPR campaign to delete dead voters, we figure it is reasonable to expect about 200 deletions of moved-out and dead voters per quarter, for April, May, and June, a period that should overlap with the above 86+ voter deletion (25+20).

• Any registration changes for July 2008 (after 2008Q2), however, have not even been publicly displayed - not to mention gazetted. It would be imprudent for SPR to delete from July changes, although it could account for perhaps 100 or more missing voters.

• SPR's lack of transparency and unwillingness to make 2008Q2 supplementary roll easily available means we cannot trace the last 242 deletions. We can only make partial, manual, checking and guesses.
• These 242 untraced deletions could easily contain mistakes created in a rush. If so, SPR would have embarrassed itself by trying to avoid embarrassing itself.

• MalaysiaKini.com and MerdekaReview.com have reported a total of 5 cases of voters, who are alive and well, who were told by SPR staff on polling day that they had been considered dead and deleted from the rolls.
• We can confirm one case (Ang Kean Tatt, born 1983) where the voter did exist in the 2008 Feb 5 roll, is alive and well, but is not found in the 2008 Jul 31 roll, and was told he was dead in the voters roll.
  
• We suspect other cases may involve long-dormant voters who have suddenly found themselves gerrymandered away from Permatang Pauh even before the 12th GE.
  
• See various reports:
• Four names missing from electoral list
• 选民册上宣报死亡 真正幽灵选民显现？ Machine translation (will contain funny machine translation mistakes).

Finding 7: The "addition" of 961 voters in the by-election roll was also inflated by 489 new-formatted police postal voter IC numbers

As we explained above in Finding 2, 489 police voters remained in Permatang Pauh so far this yea. But their newly-formatted IC numbers have made these 489 look like "new additions" to the roll.


Finding 8: The remaining 472 (=961-489) new non-postal voters can be traced to normal new voters and moved-in voters in 2008Q1, gazetted in 2008 Jun 19.

• SPR press release indicated that SPR did not add new voters after the 2008 Jun 19 gazetted (2008Q1 data) rolls, and that SPR only deleted voters found to have moved out or to have died.
• The 2008Q1 supplementary roll revealed that 485 new voters were added to Permatang Pauh in 2008Q1, gazetted on 2008 Jun 19:
• 373 voters were added due to new registration, and
• 112 voters were added because they moved into Permatang Pauh.


• Earlier we calculated that 472 non-postal voters were added, which is fewer than 485 reported in 2008Q1.
• This means we can account for almost all the addition to the by-election roll.
• As a result, we had not been too worried about "phantom voters" being imported into the electoral roll. (Although bused-in phantoms using other valid voters' ICs is another matter to worry about.)
• Still, the difference of 13, between 485 non-postal voters added in 2008Q1 and 472 additional non-postal voters found on the by-election roll, is a small mystery. Some 13 voters were somehow deleted or not included somewhere.

With the above 8 points of finding, and the confusion created by SPR changes, we repeat these three recommendations for improving SPR and the electoral rolls:

1. First, let police and military voters switch to a 12-digit civilian IC to simplify verification, update, and avoid duplicate registrations.
   
   
2. Second, make voter registration automatic with MyKad status at the NRIC Department. Meanwhile, make NRIC accountable to the parliament, to prevent Sabah-like IC mess,
   
   
3. Third, make SPR more transparent with the gazetted and quarterly electoral rolls. SPR has recently stopped the online publication of the quarterly rolls in PDF format.Given adequate data, NGOs and the media can actually help SPR avoid unnecessary confusion.
   

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.