2009-07-13

Manek Urai - superficial increase of 1 voter hides bigger changes underneath

On the surface, Manek Urai's voters increased by only one. But hiding underneath, there was 261 deletions and 262 additions among non-postal voters over the past 16 months. Another 25 police postal voters had their IC format changed, but remained the same persons.

Table A shows that, between the GE12 electoral roll (gazetted 2008 Feb 5 but dated 2007 Dec 31) and this by-election roll (gazetted 2009 June 4, but probably updated to May 2009):

  • 261 non-postal voters have been deleted (ICs appeared in GE12 roll, but not in by-election roll),
  • 262 non-postal voters have been added (ICs appeared in by-election roll, but not in GE12 roll).
  • 25 postal voters (all police) remained, but have had their police ICs updated to a new format, eg, from R0072706 to RF72706.
  • 1 postal police voter with 12-digit IC has moved out of potal-voter-district, but remain within the DUN. She is not counted as addition or deletion.
  • In total, the net increase is only 1 voter, from 12,292 to 12,293 voters.
  • This is a 0.008% net addition in voter size over about 16 month period.
Too graceful? We are beginning to suspect occurrences that small surface changes in by-election rolls seem to hide larger undercurrents in by-electoral rolls. After netting out the confusing police IC changes, addition and deletions seem to balance out roughly, netting only small increases. The small net increases are even smaller when divided by total voter size, and time period. We will investigate this phenomenon in another blog entry. In Penanti, there was 0.15% net addition of voters over 12 months since GE12.

Table A: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604 Compared to GE12 Roll of 20080205
Summary of Voter changes - IC-Name Combinations that Appears in One Roll and Not The Other

DELETION ADDITION Net change
Voter IC exist in 20080205 GE12 roll20090604 by-election roll
But do not exist in20090604 by-election roll20080205 GE12 roll
Count of Non-Postal Voter Changes2612621
Same police voters with updated IC format25250
One police voter with 12-digit IC moved to non-postal address. Not an addition or deletion.
0
Total net change

1
Voters in 20080205 GE12 electoral roll

 12,292
Voters in 20090604 by-election electoral roll

 12,293

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Posted by KC at 7/13/2009 06:27:00 AM 0 comments

94.2% Manek Urai voters without house number

94.2% of voters in Manek Urai (P031N41) are registered with only a general village or street (locality) address, without any specific house numbers. This hampers voter verification and hides opportunity to plant phantom voters.

Manek Urai has one of the highest rates of voters registered without house numbers in the country at 94.2%, comparable to Sabah and many constituencies in Sarawak. In the GE12 electoral roll (see our May 2008 blog entry),

  • about 1/3 of all voters nationwide are registered without house number (NoRumah in SPR database),
  • about 73% of voters in Kelantan hasno house number

Table A shows that:
  • The DMs (voting districts) of Chuchoh Puteri and Sungai Sok have the highest percentage of voters without house number (NoRumah) of, respectively 98.0% and 96.8%.
  • But the DMs of Sungai Perial and Manek Urai Lama have the largest absolute number of voters without house numbers of, respectively, 1,867 and 1,784, because they are larger districts.
  • Overall, 94.2% or 11,554 out of 12,268 non-postal voters are registered without house number.
Table A: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Percentage of unique addresses (Kodlokaliti+NoRumah) where NoRumah is blank - Non-Postal Voters
Parl/DUN/DMNamaDUNNamaDMBlank_NoRumahTotal_Voters% with Blank House Number
031/41/06Manek UraiChuchoh Puteri 1,486 1,517 98.0%
031/41/05Manek UraiSungai Sok 949 980 96.8%
031/41/01Manek UraiTemalir 942 983 95.8%
031/41/07Manek UraiLata Rek 1,041 1,094 95.2%
031/41/08Manek UraiManjor 997 1,049 95.0%
031/41/03Manek UraiManek Urai Lama 1,784 1,890 94.4%
031/41/09Manek UraiLaloh 1,520 1,643 92.5%
031/41/02Manek UraiSungai Perial 1,867 2,019 92.5%
031/41/04Manek UraiManek Urai Baru 968 1,093 88.6%
Non-Postal voters

 11,554 12,268 94.2%
Postal voters


 25
Total voters


 12,293


Table B shows that,:
  • Because most voters in Manek Urai (94.2%) are not registered by SPR to have house number, their "locality" (represented only by Kodlokaliti, with blank NoRumah) effectively become their full but vague address.
  • These are vague but "unique address" (such as"kampong" address)
  • By "unique address," we mean Kodlokaliti+Norumah (the latter mostly blank).
  • Table B is a long list that includes both blank (majority) and non-blank (minority near the bottom) house numbers, down to 3 voters who share the same unique address.
  • The electoral-roll problem of "many voters without NoRumah" and "large unique address or big virtual houses" become the same issue.
  • This list helps us to see the big picture of vague addresses registration by SPR.

Many voters look like they share "big, virtual, houses," ie, Unique Addresses without house number (Kodlokaliti+ blank NoRumah). For example,
  • There is an address with 1,179 voters and another with 1,032 voters lumped together,
  • 1,179 voters appear to live in a "big virtual house" at 031/41/09/001 or Kuala Krai/ Manek Urai / Laloh / Kg Laloh. No further house number details are available for these 1,179 voters.
  • At the bottom end of this list, notice that where specific house numbers are available, there are 5 or fewer voters living in the same unique addresses.
  • We created the "NoRumahCleaned" column to standardize and eliminate SPR's inconsistent addresses formats, to clean up cases such as the 5 voters at "30A", at 031/41/07/001 Kuala Krai/ Manek Urai/ Lata Rek/Lata Rek. They appeared in SPR's database as different house number:
    • "30 A" (1 voter),
    • "30-A" (2 voters), and
    • "NO 30 A" (2 voters)

For field researchers,
  • it will be difficult to go through such a large number of voters .
  • Such vague addressing will open up great opportunities to implant phantom voters.
  • We are publicizing this pattern to build up evidence that SPR is not properly registering voter details.
Table B: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
"Virtual Big Houses" or Unique Addresses (Kodlokaliti+NoRumah) and Voter Counts - Non-Postal Voters
Blank and Non-Blank House Numbers (NoRumah)
KodlokalitiNamaDMNamaLokalitiNoRumahNoRumahCleanedVoter Count
0314109001LalohKg Laloh

 1,179
0314106001Chuchoh PuteriKg Chuchoh Putri

 1,032
0314102001Sungai PerialKg Sg Perial

 898
0314103001Manek Urai LamaManek Urai Timor

 715
0314101002TemalirTemalir Lkt

 701
0314107001Lata RekLata Rek

 635
0314104001Manek Urai BaruKg Manek Urai Baru

 548
0314103002Manek Urai LamaManek Urai Barat

 510
0314106002Chuchoh PuteriKg Chuchoh Putri B

 454
0314105002Sungai SokR.K.T. Sg. Sok

 417
0314108002ManjorKampong Manjor

 398
0314105001Sungai SokKg Sg Sok Dan Lata Pauh

 343
0314108001ManjorKampong Karangan

 343
0314102004Sungai PerialR K T Perial

 336
0314103003Manek Urai LamaManek Urai Hulu

 282
0314102005Sungai PerialLadang Lepan Kabu

 262
0314108003ManjorKampong Budi

 244
0314109002LalohKg. Lela Jasa

 241
0314101001TemalirKg Temalir

 241
0314104005Manek Urai BaruKg Gajah

 178
0314105004Sungai SokSlow Machang

 168
0314102002Sungai PerialKg. Lepan Jenut

 162
0314107003Lata RekKg Chatel

 154
0314102003Sungai PerialTakdir Sg Perial

 139
0314104003Manek Urai BaruKg. Ragu

 126
0314107002Lata RekKg Bukit Budu

 121
0314103004Manek Urai LamaKg Kuala Hidong East

 120
0314103006Manek Urai LamaKg Sg Masek

 102
0314107004Lata RekKg Jelekis

 74
0314104004Manek Urai BaruKg. Leber Kala

 66
0314104002Manek Urai BaruLadang Tg. Batu

 50
0314102006Sungai PerialKuala Temiang

 40
0314103008Manek Urai LamaManek Urai Lama

 39
0314109003LalohKg. Sg. Kamal

 35
0314107006Lata RekKg Tok Uban

 33
0314109005LalohKg. Jeram Panjang

 19
0314102007Sungai PerialKg. Kongsi Baru

 18
0314105003Sungai SokKg. Bukit Sabah

 18
0314109004LalohKg. Lebor

 17
0314109007LalohRpt Kesedar Sg Rek

 13
0314107005Lata RekKg Kubang Kerian

 12
0314108004ManjorKg Chabang Empat

 12
0314103005Manek Urai LamaRumah Kerajaan

 11
0314107007Lata RekKg Lata Pauh

 11
0314109006LalohSykt. Bonaza Sg. Pek

 9
0314102008Sungai PerialKg. Pasir Layang

 7
0314102009Sungai PerialKg Peria Baru

 5
0314107001Lata RekLata Rek30-A30A 5
0314109001LalohKg Laloh55 4
0314102001Sungai PerialKg Sg Perial279279 4
0314102001Sungai PerialKg Sg Perial14B14B 4
0314103007Manek Urai LamaPinggir Kajang

 4
0314109008LalohKg Bechah Pulai

 4
0314104001Manek Urai BaruKg Manek Urai BaruLOT 68LOT68 4
0314103001Manek Urai LamaManek Urai Timor6767 4
0314102007Sungai PerialKg. Kongsi BaruNO 3939 4
0314109001LalohKg LalohLOT 4109LOT4109 3
0314109001LalohKg LalohNO 1414 3
0314109009LalohKg Sg Rek

 3
0314102001Sungai PerialKg Sg PerialLOT 8LOT8 3
0314102005Sungai PerialLadang Lepan Kabu6262 3
0314109001LalohKg Laloh111111 3
0314104001Manek Urai BaruKg Manek Urai BaruLOT 287LOT287 3
0314109001LalohKg Laloh115115 3
0314102005Sungai PerialLadang Lepan Kabu2828 3
0314107001Lata RekLata Rek1616 3
0314104001Manek Urai BaruKg Manek Urai BaruLOT 12LOT12 3
0314102001Sungai PerialKg Sg PerialNO 372372 3
0314104001Manek Urai BaruKg Manek Urai Baru246246 3
0314102005Sungai PerialLadang Lepan KabuNO 22 3
0314105001Sungai SokKg Sg Sok Dan Lata Pauh4646 3
0314103001Manek Urai LamaManek Urai TimorNO 6161 3
0314102005Sungai PerialLadang Lepan Kabu1111 3
0314109001LalohKg LalohLOT 25LOT25 3
0314109001LalohKg Laloh2626 3
0314102004Sungai PerialR K T Perial107107 3
0314104001Manek Urai BaruKg Manek Urai Baru263263 3
0314104001Manek Urai BaruKg Manek Urai BaruLOT 217LOT217 3
0314102005Sungai PerialLadang Lepan Kabu33 3

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Posted by KC at 7/13/2009 06:15:00 AM 2 comments

Manek Urai voters - young and getting younger

48% of Manek Urai voter are younger than 40 years of age. The 21-29 year-old segment has increased 7.8% since March 2008, while other age groups have remained the same or reduced in number.

Table A shows that:

  • Manek Urai voter count has increased by only 1 to 12,293 between 2008 Feb 5 gazetted roll and 2009 June 4 roll (about 16 months).
  • The voters are mostly young, falling in the 21-29 and 30-39 age groups.
  • The 21-29 age group is the only group that saw an increase in voters, jumping by nearly 8% in 15-16 months.
  • Even the 30-39 age group remained flat (-1).
  • All other age groups fell in voter numbers.
  • SPR has eliminated the last 100-or-older voter from the roll.
  • The 21-29 and 30-39 groups add up to 47.9% of all voters, or nearly half in the latest roll, up from 49.3%.
  • The 21-49 groups total 67.7%, up from 66.4% of all voters.
Table A: N41 Manek Urai By-Election Roll of 20090604 by Age Groups - Comparison with GE12 Roll of 20080205
GE12 By-Election GE12 By-Election
AgeTahunlahirTahunlahirGazettedData date


PercentagePercentage
GroupFromTo2008020520090604ChangeChange %
2008020520090604
21-2919791987 2,457 2,651 194 7.9%
20.0%21.6%
30-3919691978 3,234 3,233 (1)0.0%
26.3%26.3%
40-4919591968 2,465 2,437 (28)-1.1%
20.1%19.8%
50-5919491958 2,001 1,970 (31)-1.5%
16.3%16.0%
60-6919391948 1,192 1,149 (43)-3.6%
9.7%9.3%
70-7919291938 739 678 (61)-8.3%
6.0%5.5%
80-8919191928 189 163 (26)-13.8%
1.5%1.3%
90-9919091918 14 12 (2)-14.3%
0.1%0.1%
100+18841908 1 - (1)-100.0%
0.0%0.0%
Total

 12,292 12,293 1 0.0%
100.0%100.0%

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Posted by KC at 7/13/2009 06:03:00 AM 0 comments

Manek Urai By-Election Background

The Manek Urai, or Manik Urai, DUN (N41) by-election under Kuala Krai (P031) of Kelantan is to be held on July 14, Tuesday and a working day. The state assembly seat contains 12,293 voters, including 25 postal voters. There are 9 voting districts, using 9 schools as voting stations, and 27 voting streams.

Manek Urai is an inland location, west of the Terengganu border.

Although TheStar.com.my (quoted below) reported that SPR (EC, Election Commission) will be using May 22 electoral roll, SPR's own website said it will be using the roll gazetted on June 4, 2009. This is the date we are quoting for the by-election roll. See:
We make several observations on SPR's vagueness and lack of effort to inform the public about its electoral roll dates:
  1. SPR has stopped issuing press releases on its electoral roll update and gazette dates to invite public scrutiny (the above announcement is buried inside SPR website),
  2. SPR often does not clarify "update" and "gazette" dates, which may have confused TheStar.com.my.
  3. SPR announcements can contain mistakes. See the Feb 18 date here and Apr 24 date here (correct one).

Tables A and B show that:
  • Manek Urai (N41), is a state assembly seat under Kuala Urai (P031),
  • It contains 9 Daerah Mengundi (DM or voting districts),
  • It contains 27 saluran or voting streams,
  • It contains 12,293 voters, including 25 postal voters.
  • The largest DMs are Sungai Perial (2,019 voters or 16.4%), Manek Urai Lama, and Laloh.
Table A: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Non-Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM; and Count of Saluran
Parl/DUN/DMNamaDUNNamaDMTMSaluran count Voter count Percent
031/41/01Manek UraiTemalirSekolah Kebangsaan Temalir2 983 8.0%
031/41/02Manek UraiSungai PerialSekolah Kebangsaan Peria4 2,019 16.4%
031/41/03Manek UraiManek Urai LamaSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai4 1,890 15.4%
031/41/04Manek UraiManek Urai BaruSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai Baru3 1,093 8.9%
031/41/05Manek UraiSungai SokSekolah Kebangsaan Sungai Sok2 980 8.0%
031/41/06Manek UraiChuchoh PuteriSekolah Kebangsaan Chuchoh Puteri3 1,517 12.3%
031/41/07Manek UraiLata RekSekolah Kebangsaan Lata Rek3 1,094 8.9%
031/41/08Manek UraiManjorSekolah Kebangsaan Kampong Karangan3 1,049 8.5%
031/41/09Manek UraiLalohSekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Laloh3 1,643 13.4%
Subtotal or count
99 27 12,268 99.8%



Min 2 980 8.0%



Max 4 2,019 16.4%



Avg 3 1,363 11.1%

Table B: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM; and Count of Saluran
Parl/DUN/DMNamaDUNNamaDMTMSaluran count Voter count Percent
031/41/03Manek UraiManek Urai LamaPos1 12 0.1%
031/41/06Manek UraiChuchoh PuteriPos1 2 0.0%
031/41/09Manek UraiLalohPos1 11 0.1%
Subtotal


3 25 0.2%

Total voters



 12,293 100.0%
Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
Note: If you find the text too small, try pressing Ctrl and scrolling the mouse's middle button up or down to adjust the font size.


Tables C, D, and E show that:
  • The 9 voting districts contain 27 voting streams (saluran),
  • The smallest saluran contains 300 voters, while the largest 647 voters,
  • All the postal voters are police voters, spread over 3 locations.
  • Specific details on the 25 postal voters are available to researchers.
Table C: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Non-Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM, and Saluran Details
Parl/DUN/DMNamaDUNNamaDMTMSaluran Voter count Percent
031/41/01Manek UraiTemalirSekolah Kebangsaan Temalir1 350 2.8%
031/41/01Manek UraiTemalirSekolah Kebangsaan Temalir2 633 5.1%
031/41/02Manek UraiSungai PerialSekolah Kebangsaan Peria1 350 2.8%
031/41/02Manek UraiSungai PerialSekolah Kebangsaan Peria2 556 4.5%
031/41/02Manek UraiSungai PerialSekolah Kebangsaan Peria3 556 4.5%
031/41/02Manek UraiSungai PerialSekolah Kebangsaan Peria4 557 4.5%
031/41/03Manek UraiManek Urai LamaSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai1 350 2.8%
031/41/03Manek UraiManek Urai LamaSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai2 513 4.2%
031/41/03Manek UraiManek Urai LamaSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai3 513 4.2%
031/41/03Manek UraiManek Urai LamaSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai4 514 4.2%
031/41/04Manek UraiManek Urai BaruSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai Baru1 350 2.8%
031/41/04Manek UraiManek Urai BaruSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai Baru2 371 3.0%
031/41/04Manek UraiManek Urai BaruSekolah Kebangsaan Manek Urai Baru3 372 3.0%
031/41/05Manek UraiSungai SokSekolah Kebangsaan Sungai Sok1 350 2.8%
031/41/05Manek UraiSungai SokSekolah Kebangsaan Sungai Sok2 630 5.1%
031/41/06Manek UraiChuchoh PuteriSekolah Kebangsaan Chuchoh Puteri1 350 2.8%
031/41/06Manek UraiChuchoh PuteriSekolah Kebangsaan Chuchoh Puteri2 583 4.7%
031/41/06Manek UraiChuchoh PuteriSekolah Kebangsaan Chuchoh Puteri3 584 4.8%
031/41/07Manek UraiLata RekSekolah Kebangsaan Lata Rek1 350 2.8%
031/41/07Manek UraiLata RekSekolah Kebangsaan Lata Rek2 372 3.0%
031/41/07Manek UraiLata RekSekolah Kebangsaan Lata Rek3 372 3.0%
031/41/08Manek UraiManjorSekolah Kebangsaan Kampong Karangan1 300 2.4%
031/41/08Manek UraiManjorSekolah Kebangsaan Kampong Karangan2 374 3.0%
031/41/08Manek UraiManjorSekolah Kebangsaan Kampong Karangan3 375 3.1%
031/41/09Manek UraiLalohSekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Laloh1 350 2.8%
031/41/09Manek UraiLalohSekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Laloh2 646 5.3%
031/41/09Manek UraiLalohSekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Laloh3 647 5.3%
Subtotal or count


27 12,268 99.8%




Min 300 2.4%




Max 647 5.3%




Avg 454 3.7%

Table D: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM, and Saluran
Parl/DUN/DMNamaDUNNamaDMTMSaluran Voter count Percent
031/41/03Manek UraiManek Urai LamaPos0 12 0.1%
031/41/06Manek UraiChuchoh PuteriPos0 2 0.0%
031/41/09Manek UraiLalohPos0 11 0.1%
Subtotal



 25 0.2%
Total voters



 12,293 100.0%

Table E: N41 Manek Urai (P031 Kuala Krai) By-Election Roll of 20090604
Postal Voter Count by DUN, DM, TM, and Saluran
Parl/DUN/DMNamaDUNNamaDMNamaLokalitiTM Voter count Percent
031/41/03/701Manek UraiManek Urai LamaBalai Polis Manek UraiPos 12 0.1%
031/41/06/701Manek UraiChuchoh PuteriPondok Polis Chuchoh PuteriPos 2 0.0%
031/41/09/701Manek UraiLalohBalai Polis LalohPos 11 0.1%
Subtotal



 25 0.2%
Total voters



 12,293 100.0%


Manek Urai by-election fixed for July 14
29/05/2009

The Election Commission has set July 6 as nomination day for the Manek Urai state seat by-election while polling will take place on July 14.

Chairman Tan Sri Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof said the commission was officially informed of the vacancy of the state seat on May 24 following the death of assemblyman Ismail Yaacob from a heart attack last Friday.

He told a press conference here yesterday that the 2008 master electoral roll, updated on May 22, would be used for the by-election and would be available for purchase from June 15.

According to the electoral roll, there are 12,293 registered voters including 25 postal voters in the constituency.

The electorate comprises 99.22% Malays, 0.46% Chinese, 0.23% Indians and 0.09% others.

The Dewan Petra at SMK Sultan Yahya Petra I in Kuala Krai will be the nomination and main vote-tallying centre.

Nine schools will be used as polling centres.

Asked if holding the polling on a weekday could affect voter turnout, Abdul Aziz said it should not be a problem as most of the constituents were farmers, fishermen and rubber tappers who were not bound by office hours.

He said the commission was hoping for a voter turnout of at least 85% during the by-election which will cost the commission RM400,000 involving 350 election workers.

The commission, he added, also agreed to allow Malaysia For Free and Fair Election (Mafrel) to act as an observer during the by-election but wanted it to approach the commission with any complaints or suggestions instead of going to the media.

Voters can check for details from June 15 through commission’s website www.spr.gov.my via SMS by typing “SPR Semak” and sending it to 15888, or calling 03-8885 6500 or 09-748 2510.

In an interview later, he said the commission decided to hold the by-election as far as July because there were too many functions next month.

“The Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s birthday is in June, then you have the PAS muktamar (general assembly) and the Kelantan state assembly sitting.

“The Dewan Negara meeting is also scheduled for June, so we decided the most suitable date would be in July,” he said, adding that the commission needed time to prepare for the by-election, the seventh since the 2008 March general elections.

http://thestar.com.my
Emphasis added

Read more! Full post may contain more data and tables.

Posted by KC at 7/13/2009 04:24:00 AM 1 comments
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