Phantom Army Camp and Out-and-In Army Voters

Abandoned army camp in Penang housed 473 phantom voters, who floated out and in during the same quarter ...

Once upon a time, there was a deserted army camp on an island. Island lores had it that 473 phantoms had taken up residence in the camp. Yes, it was recorded in the government scroll.

Mysteriously, during the last northeast monsoon season, 312 of these phantoms floated out of the camp, and just as mysteriously, the same 312 ICs and names floated back into this same camp - all during the 4th quarter of 2007 ...

After the monsoon season, few phantom voters were seen to have moved out (2008q1). Today, local folks will swear by the belief that phantoms continue to linger in the eerie halls of the forsaken camp, where the only sign of life is rodents crawling out of its looted compound ... Perhaps the drug addicts who ransacked the officer mess and dark corridors had run into the spirits, but their lips are sealed ...

Table 1 Background: 473 Phantom Voters

• This abandoned army camp site is known on the electoral roll as locality code 049/26/05/400 or PULAU PINANG state, TANJONG (p049) parliamentary constituency, PADANG KOTA state assembly seat (26), WELLESLEY SCHOOL voting district (DM 05), and MARKAS 2 DIV JLN SULTAN AHMAD SHAH locality (400).
  


• 049/26/05/400 is the army camp pictured above. Wikimapia.org satellite map is here.
  


• GE2008, which took place on 2008 Mar 8, made use of electoral rolls that were gazetted on 2008 Feb 5, using data mostly updated to 2007q4 (2007 Dec 31).
  


• However in the specific case of this Tanjong parliamentary constituency (P049, which covers this army camp), the 2007q4 voter changes (2007 Oct 1 to Dec 31) were disputed by political parties, so the gazetted roll for 2008 Feb 5 included only voter changes for P049 up to 2007q3 (2007 Sep 30).


• Table 1 shows the 473 ICs registered at this location as of the electoral roll gazetted 2008 Feb 5, which was used in the 2008 Mar 8 general election. This means as of 2007q3, there were 473 registered voters at this location.
  


• In table 1, we have only listed the ICs and not the voter names, to minimize unnecessary exposure to the privacy of these (probably) real-person, though clearly non-resident, voters. You can confirm their names and registered location at SPR's voter verification Web site here or by checking SPR-issued MS Access-formatted electoral roll if you have a copy. You should get valid response as long as the SPR site continues to display the electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Feb 5.


• If you represent SPR, an election-monitoring NGO, political party, academician, or journalist with proper editorial and managerial control, you can email me at saengch at gmail dot com to request the detailed data. But I may need some introduction or endorsement from other reputable sources before I give out too much voter details.


• We also have a copy of the SPR-published PDF files for 2007q3 2007q4, and 2008q1 electoral changes for P049.
  

Table 1: 473 voters registered at abandoned army camp MARKAS 2 DIV JLN SULTAN AHMAD SHAH (049/26/05/400, gazetted 2008 Feb 5)

IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC
561225086002	710829085752	771011075856	T1078597	T1095394	T1114810	T1139127	T3009750
570101085088	710921045366	780506135536	T1078795	T1095435	T1116815	T1139526	T3009989
580209085230	711122035318	790419086376	T1078921	T1095457	T1117123	T1139531	T3010091
590615035414	720110045054	791012016442	T1079042	T1095577	T1117328	T1139947	T411736
600515016108	720124025740	791012095072	T1079044	T1095713	T1117344	T1139998	T411897
620508025004	720206025330	791017086204	T1080098	T1095911	T1117382	T1140181	T411967
620611086470	720320045474	791212115138	T1080754	T1095949	T1117527	T1140818	T5000793
630702055572	720401105002	791214025670	T1080858	T1096441	T1117821	T1142067	T5000921
631201075756	720416086086	800215025244	T1081020	T1096636	T1117928	T1142070	T5001324
640114075592	720430025204	811105136158	T1081075	T1097109	T1118610	T1142199	T5001513
640303075380	720502085784	811127015154	T1081294	T1097430	T1118974	T1142303	T5001962
640606115458	720516075480	T1066854	T1081555	T1097643	T1119044	T1142429	T5002385
651228105968	720811025304	T1067427	T1081699	T1097667	T1119084	T1144257	T5002596
660115045318	720817715410	T1067438	T1081929	T1097779	T1119521	T1148895	T5003031
660711025508	730102085928	T1067491	T1081944	T1097781	T1119616	T1151853	T5003204
660819025390	730104086430	T1068390	T1082059	T1098097	T1119722	T1151974	T5003205
660925025466	730310135168	T1069183	T1082104	T1098119	T1120504	T1152426	T5003218
660926085954	730312025106	T1069670	T1082217	T1098210	T1121371	T3000068	T5003228
661118025042	730312075656	T1070523	T1082604	T1098270	T1121432	T3000442	T5003360
661217025486	730322075158	T1070539	T1082757	T1098519	T1121684	T3000587	T5003365
670628085170	730405025404	T1071252	T1082767	T1098594	T1121737	T3000755	T5003549
680108025106	730811075618	T1071909	T1082967	T1098741	T1121767	T3001277	T5003694
680108075402	740124025060	T1072146	T1083635	T1099747	T1122147	T3001458	T5004074
680301086736	740320075284	T1072209	T1083827	T1100081	T1122148	T3001809	T5004320
680307015496	740321026206	T1072628	T1084098	T1100214	T1122386	T3001934	T5004394
680331085232	740602085632	T1073032	T1084511	T1100881	T1122924	T3002209	T5004696
680404025514	740617085934	T1073274	T1084570	T1101166	T1123125	T3002277	T532915
680607075124	740628025400	T1073360	T1084895	T1101775	T1124177	T3002430	T533534
680705085166	741217025072	T1073798	T1085133	T1102130	T1124252	T3002476	T533733
681211045302	741227065260	T1073840	T1085378	T1102348	T1124755	T3002908	T533952
690303075044	750116085468	T1073901	T1085400	T1102562	T1124951	T3003203	T534171
690315025140	750207025110	T1073956	T1087784	T1102629	T1125256	T3003612	T534711
690401025614	750208075312	T1074014	T1088184	T1103233	T1125329	T3003850	T534877
690417075202	750304025470	T1074043	T1088443	T1103770	T1126227	T3003930	T535067
690515135782	750402075324	T1074079	T1088505	T1103778	T1126264	T3004777	T535380
690609075100	750411086068	T1074330	T1088522	T1103938	T1126265	T3006044	T535571
690612085668	750507115134	T1074702	T1088782	T1104054	T1127241	T3006311	T535831
690713035440	750523035388	T1075100	T1089881	T1104451	T1127718	T3006349	T536309
690714025672	750701036042	T1075123	T1090001	T1104685	T1127824	T3006761	T536313
690813086114	750722075112	T1075125	T1090597	T1105032	T1127860	T3006989	T6004530
691105075558	750724025426	T1075484	T1090983	T1105219	T1128036	T3007140	T6033377
691212025222	750803085523	T1075585	T1091091	T1105402	T1129536	T3007353	T6074863
700103025110	750812026082	T1075679	T1091133	T1105808	T1129747	T3007599	T6083862
700211025572	750814086070	T1075732	T1091458	T1105811	T1130272	T3007625	T60843
700417095066	750924135144	T1075850	T1091708	T1105973	T1130939	T3007634	T6103844
700502025150	751114086170	T1075927	T1091878	T1106510	T1131336	T3007913	T6108665
700609085014	751220135394	T1076022	T1092092	T1106533	T1131535	T3007963	T6121730
700923025378	751224025344	T1076053	T1092284	T1106924	T1132089	T3008032	T6138844
701225086258	760126025054	T1076055	T1092328	T1107145	T1132549	T3008247	T6144657
710203045396	760706026352	T1076160	T1092410	T1107587	T1133092	T3008314	T6146727
710221025866	760708026188	T1076228	T1092578	T1107882	T1133677	T3008377	T6153203
710222025526	760821086086	T1076287	T1092600	T1109679	T1133834	T3008539	T6155479
710324135152	760918135008	T1076479	T1092668	T1110236	T1134349	T3008561	T720147
710331075100	761006055296	T1076613	T1092700	T1111530	T1135297	T3008583
710518026106	761011025366	T1077069	T1092703	T1112419	T1135931	T3008608
710531015006	761023075504	T1077080	T1092808	T1112521	T1136035	T3008881
710612025054	761225025556	T1077109	T1092809	T1113022	T1136992	T3009165
710621035342	770525087016	T1077641	T1094259	T1113084	T1138133	T3009189
710711025308	770617025242	T1077920	T1094610	T1113092	T1138381	T3009694
710726025546	771002076494	T1078194	T1094813	T1114000	T1138509	T3009710

Source: SPR

Table 2 Background: Out-and-In Phamtom Voters

• Subsequent to 2007q3, that is in 2007q4 (not gazetted), there were 312 voters who were moved out of this army camp ( Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat, a deletion to voter list, code 32 by MALVU).
  


• But strangely enough, also during 2007q4, the same 312 voters were moved back into this army camp ( Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat, an addition to voter list, code 12 by MALVU).


• These 624 changes (=312x2) were part of a total of 684 voter changes at 049/26/05/400 during 2007q4. The other 60 changes (684-624) were of minor interest. The 60 included 2 voters who registered as new army voters in 2007q4, and then immediately retired from the army, also in 2007q4.
  


• Table 2 lists the ICs of those 312 voters who were moved out and in of this same location (049/26/05/400) during the same quarter (2007q4).
  


• There may be a question whether they were IN-OUT or OUT-IN voters. We have figured out that they were OUT-and-IN voters, because we have also found all 312 on the 2008 Fed 5 gazetted electoral rolls (2007 Sep 30 data for P049 Tanjong). Since these 312 were already in the electoral roll on 2007 Sep 30, for the following quarter of 2007q4 these 312 can only be moved OUT first, before being moved IN again.


• It looks to us that these 312 army voters were at first moved out of this phantom army camp in 2007q4, only to have another authority reversed the decision, and moved them immediately, back to the same location, during the same quarter.
  


• You will also be able to find all these ICs on SPR's voter verification Web site here with data gazetted on 2008 Feb 5. However, you can only see their "movement out of and then into the same army camp" by viewing the 2007q4 PDF file for "Senarai Tambahan" or supplementary list of quarter changes of voters. We have a copy of this PDF file that was downloaded from SPR Web site around 2008 Jan 17.

Table 2: 312 voters who moved OUT and IN of abandoned army camp in 2007q4 (049/26/05/400 MARKAS 2 DIV JLN SULTAN AHMAD SHAH)

IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC	IC
T1066854	T1077080	T1088522	T1098097	T1117344	T1131336	T3003203	T5002596
T1067427	T1077109	T1088782	T1098119	T1117527	T1132089	T3003612	T5003031
T1067438	T1077641	T1089881	T1098210	T1117821	T1132549	T3003850	T5003205
T1067491	T1077920	T1090001	T1098270	T1117928	T1133677	T3003930	T5003218
T1068390	T1078194	T1090597	T1098519	T1118610	T1133834	T3004777	T5003228
T1069183	T1078597	T1090983	T1098594	T1118974	T1134349	T3006044	T5003360
T1069670	T1078795	T1091091	T1098741	T1119044	T1135297	T3006311	T5003365
T1070523	T1078921	T1091133	T1099747	T1119084	T1135931	T3006349	T5003694
T1070539	T1079042	T1091458	T1100214	T1119521	T1136992	T3006761	T5004074
T1071252	T1079044	T1091708	T1100881	T1119616	T1138133	T3006989	T5004320
T1071909	T1080098	T1091878	T1101775	T1119722	T1138381	T3007140	T5004394
T1072146	T1080754	T1092092	T1102130	T1120504	T1138509	T3007353	T5004696
T1072628	T1080858	T1092284	T1102348	T1121371	T1139127	T3007625	T532915
T1073274	T1081020	T1092328	T1102562	T1121684	T1139526	T3007634	T533534
T1073360	T1081075	T1092410	T1103770	T1121737	T1139531	T3007913	T533733
T1073798	T1081294	T1092578	T1103778	T1121767	T1139947	T3007963	T533952
T1073840	T1081555	T1092600	T1103938	T1122147	T1139998	T3008032	T534171
T1073901	T1081699	T1092668	T1104054	T1122148	T1140181	T3008247	T534711
T1073956	T1081929	T1092700	T1104451	T1122386	T1140818	T3008314	T534877
T1074014	T1081944	T1092703	T1104685	T1122924	T1142067	T3008377	T535067
T1074043	T1082059	T1092808	T1105032	T1123125	T1142199	T3008539	T535380
T1074079	T1082104	T1092809	T1105402	T1124177	T1142303	T3008561	T535571
T1074330	T1082217	T1094259	T1105811	T1124252	T1142429	T3008608	T535831
T1074702	T1082604	T1094610	T1105973	T1124755	T1144257	T3008881	T536309
T1075100	T1082757	T1095394	T1106510	T1124951	T1148895	T3009165	T536313
T1075123	T1082767	T1095435	T1106533	T1125256	T1151974	T3009189	T6004530
T1075125	T1082967	T1095457	T1106924	T1125329	T1152426	T3009694	T6033377
T1075484	T1083635	T1095577	T1107145	T1126227	T3000068	T3009710	T6074863
T1075585	T1083827	T1095713	T1107587	T1126264	T3000442	T3009750	T6083862
T1075679	T1084098	T1095911	T1107882	T1126265	T3000587	T3009989	T60843
T1075732	T1084511	T1095949	T1109679	T1127241	T3000755	T3010091	T6103844
T1075850	T1084570	T1096441	T1110236	T1127718	T3001277	T411736	T6108665
T1075927	T1085133	T1096636	T1111530	T1127824	T3001458	T411897	T6121730
T1076022	T1085378	T1097109	T1113022	T1127860	T3001934	T411967	T6138844
T1076053	T1085400	T1097430	T1114000	T1128036	T3002209	T5000793	T6144657
T1076228	T1087784	T1097643	T1114810	T1129536	T3002277	T5000921	T6146727
T1076287	T1088184	T1097667	T1116815	T1129747	T3002430	T5001324	T6153203
T1076479	T1088443	T1097779	T1117123	T1130272	T3002476	T5001513	T6155479
T1076613	T1088505	T1097781	T1117328	T1130939	T3002908	T5002385	T720147

Source: SPR

Table 3 Background: Only 7 unexciting changes in 2008q1

• Subsequent to the end of 2007, in 2008q1 there were minimal movements in this camp in. See Table 3

Table 3: Only 7 changes were made to 049/26/05/400 Phamtom army camp during 2008q1

Locality Code	Change Type	Count
492605400	Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	2
492605400	"Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos"	2
492605400	Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	3

Source: SPR

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Army/Police Movements - Where To and From

Army/Police Moving To Setiawangsa, From Lumut, etc

The tables below show where army/police postal voters were moved in to ("Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat" or Malvu change type 12) and moved out from ("Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat" or Malvu change type 32). Army/Police voters are defined as those voters whose last 3-digit locality codes are 400s to 700s.

Here are some observations for the pre-GE quarter of 2007q4:

• 3,322 army/police voters moved into P118 KL's Setiawangsa, while 1,737 moved out, with net increase of 1,585 army/police voters.


• Sabah>Sepanggar>Karambunai (Kod 17112) saw a net increase of 506 army/police voters. Selangor>Subang>Kota Damansara (Kod 10739) saw a net increase of 306 army/police voters.


• The largest net sources of army/police voters were Perak>Lumut >Pangkor (Kod 07452), seeing 1,762 moved in, 2,460 moved out, with a net decrease of -698 army/police voters.

Table A: 2007q4: Army/Police Voter Changes Type 12 (Moved IN), Type 32 (Moved OUT), and Net

				Moved	Moved	Net
Kod	Negeri	NamaParlimen	NamaDUN	In	Out	Change
11800	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Setiawangsa		3,322	1,737	1,585
07452	Perak	Lumut	Pangkor	1,762	2,460	-698
13231	Negeri Sembilan	Telok Kemang	Bagan Pinang	1,355	1,602	-247
10739	Selangor	Subang	Kota Damansara	739	433	306
13611	Melaka	Tangga Batu	Sungai Udang	693	759	-66
21249	Sarawak	Sibu	Nangka	592	673	-81
17112	Sabah	Sepanggar	Karambunai	507	1	506
08520	Pahang	Pekan	Pulau Manis	490	348	142
12400	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Bandar Tun Razak		391	481	-90
04926	Pulau Pinang	Tanjong	Padang Kota	341	357	-16
00810	Kedah	Pokok Sena	Bukit Pinang	334	250	84
16600	W.P Labuan	Labuan		331	356	-25
08212	Pahang	Indera Mahkota	Beserah	325	307	18
01426	Kedah	Merbok	Tanjong Dawai	291	267	24
19715	Sarawak	Kota Samarahan	Muara Tuang	281	242	39
15229	Johor	Kluang	Mahkota	236	530	-294
13334	Negeri Sembilan	Tampin	Gemas	229	171	58
17318	Sabah	Putatan	Petagas	193	278	-85
12000	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Bukit Bintang		179	311	-132
19612	Sarawak	Stampin	Kota Sentosa	177	201	-24
11500	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Batu		169	301	-132
04206	Pulau Pinang	Tasek Gelugor	Telok Ayer Tawar	168	275	-107
18544	Sabah	Batu Sapi	Karamunting	159	102	57
09406	Selangor	Hulu Selangor	Kuala Kubu Baharu	158	10	148
19160	Sabah	Kalabakan	Sebatik	147	70	77
03301	Terengganu	Besut	Kuala Besut	132	45	87
15942	Johor	Pasir Gudang	Johor Jaya	132	118	14
06016	Perak	Taiping	Kamunting	124	332	-208
10329	Selangor	Puchong	Seri Serdang	120	67	53
13022	Negeri Sembilan	Rasah	Rahang	113	123	-10
11253	Selangor	Kuala Langat	Morib	108	102	6
19509	Sarawak	Bandar Kuching	Padungan	103	21	82
15433	Johor	Mersing	Tenggaroh	84	134	-50

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.

Remember:

• These data do not show earlier movements, such as in 2007q3.


• There are also some really bizzare in-and-out movements by identical army/police voters. For example, Pulau Pinang > Tanjong > Padang Kota (Kod 04926), which showed 341 IN and 357 OUT, and Net -16. If you look closer at the names, 312 of the INs and 312 of the OUTs were identical army ICs, which we will explore in the next blog entry.
  


• These data also do not show the sequence of movements. Did the inward movement occur earlier, or did the outward movement occurred earlier?

In contrast, there was little movement by army/police voters for the GE2008 quarter of 2008q1, shown in the table below of top-10 DUNs for in-coming army/police voters:

Table B: 2008q1: Army/Police Voter Changes Type 12 (Moved IN), Type 32 (Moved OUT), and Net

				Moved	Moved	Net
Kod	Negeri	NamaParlimen	NamaDUN	In	Out	Change
11048	Selangor	Klang	Kota Alam Shah	113	24	89
04102	Pulau Pinang	Kepala Batas	Bertam	105	6	99
10840	Selangor	Shah Alam	Kota Anggerik	50	23	27
07452	Perak	Lumut	Pangkor	34	35	-1
01836	Kedah	Kulim-Bandar Baharu	Bandar Baharu	19	2	17
13822	Melaka	Kota Melaka	Bandar Hilir	17	4	13
19408	Sarawak	Petra Jaya	Satok	16	1	15
04719	Pulau Pinang	Nibong Tebal	Jawi	13	4	9
10945	Selangor	Kapar	Selat Klang	12	10	2
11700	W.P Kuala Lumpur	Segambut		11	21	-10

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
Note: If you find the text too small, try pressing Ctrl and scrolling the mouse's middle button up or down to adjust the font size.


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Dead Voters Society Membership Reduced

Thousands of dead voters retired in each of the last 2 quarters. Further details on Army/Police movements.

The 3 tables below are related. (Table A = Table B + Table C. ) They summarize the types of quarterly changes in electoral rolls of 2007q4 and 2008q1:

1. All voters (army, police, civilians),
2. Army and police postal voter changes, and
3. Civilian changes, excluding army and police.

Our observations based on these 3 tables:

• New voters mostly civilians: In 2007q4, eg, new registrations were 55% of all changes. These are mostly civilian new registrations, since new registrations by Police/Army voters only accounted for 1.3% of all voter changes. Similar pattern occurred in 2008q1 -- there were very few new Army/Police voters.


• What the Army/Police voters excel at is moving around before the GE. While civilian voters who moved addresses accounted for 13.2% and 13.6% -- quite evenly distributed over the 2 quarters -- of 2007q4 and 2008q1 respectively, the Army/Police were particularly active before the GE. Army/Police voters who were repositioned accounted for 5.8% of all voter changes in 2007q4 just in time for GE2008, but only 0.4% during 2008q1 when it was too late for GE2008.


• Recent campaign to strike off dead voters? SPR deleted 16,651 and 18,548 dead voters, or 5.8% and a significant 14.1% of voter changes, respectively during 2007q4 and 2008q1. These are mostly civilian voters. Judging from the significant percentage of 14.1% of a relatively "more normal" quarter of 2008q1, it looks like this is a recent campaign and determination by the SPR to clean up the Dead Voters Society after persistent protests by election watch groups.

Data background: See earlier blog for a basic understanding about Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4. For overview, also see the last post Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008.

A. ALL VOTERS INCL. ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	75,484	57.5%	159,123	55.0%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	18,385	14.0%	54,920	19.0%
Subtotal - Addition		93,869	71.5%	214,043	74.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	18,385	14.0%	54,920	19.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	18,548	14.1%	16,651	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	2	0.0%	671	0.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	-	0.0%	992	0.3%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	1	0.0%	1,261	0.4%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	8	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	357	0.3%	5	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	1	0.0%	121	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	54	0.0%	63	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	7	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	-	0.0%	362	0.1%
Others	99	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		37,363	28.5%	75,060	26.0%
Total - ALL VOTERS		131,232	100.0%	289,103	100.0%
B. ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	814	0.6%	3,710	1.3%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	528	0.4%	16,743	5.8%
Subtotal - Addition		1,342	1.0%	20,453	7.1%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	578	0.4%	16,806	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	9	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	2	0.0%	668	0.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	0	0.0%	2	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	1	0.0%	1,261	0.4%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	355	0.3%	1	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	0	0.0%	8	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	7	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	0	0.0%	362	0.1%
Others	99	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		952	0.7%	19,119	6.6%
Total - ARMY/POLICE VOTERS		2,294	1.7%	39,572	13.7%
C. EXCLUDING ARMY/POLICE VOTERS
Types of voter changes		2008q1	% all voters	2007q4	% all voters
Pendaftaran Baru	11	74,670	56.9%	155,413	53.8%
Pendaftaran Tukar Alamat	12	17,857	13.6%	38,177	13.2%
Subtotal - Addition		92,527	70.5%	193,590	67.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pengenalan Diri Tidak Lengkap	31	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pemilih Bertukar Alamat	32	17,807	13.6%	38,114	13.2%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Kematian	33	18,539	14.1%	16,644	5.8%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Hilang Kelayakan Sebagai Pengundi Pos	34	-	0.0%	3	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Dilucutkan Kewarganegaraan	35	-	0.0%	990	0.3%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Bersara Polis/ Tentera	36	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Tentera	37	8	0.0%	7	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Silap Pendataan	38	2	0.0%	4	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Masuk Polis	39	1	0.0%	121	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pergi Ke Luar Negeri	40	54	0.0%	55	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Pulang Dari Luar Negeri	41	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Penandaan Pemotongan - Tentera Di Ragui	42	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Others	99	-	0.0%	-	0.0%
Subtotal - Deletion		36,411	27.7%	55,941	19.3%
Total - NON-ARMY/POLICE VOTERS		128,938	98.3%	249,531	86.3%

Source: SPR and MALVU analysis.
Note: If you find the text too small, try pressing Ctrl and scrolling the mouse's middle button up or down to adjust the font size.


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Large Army and Police "Movements" Just Before GE2008

A large percentage of army or police postal voters were moved in the quarter before GE2008

The 12th General Election, which took place on 2008 Mar 8, was based on electoral roll gazetted on 2008 Feb 5. In this electoral roll, voter data were updated to 2007 Dec 31 for most parliamentary constituencies, but in some disputed parliamentary constituencies, up to 2007 Sep 30.

We want to see changes to army voters that took place before and during/after GE2008. To do so, we compare the quarterly supplementary rolls (senarai tambahan) for voter changes of 2007q4 and 2008q1 that SPR issues in PDF format.

The table below show a large movement of postal voters (mostly army and police, with locality codes that end in 400s, 500s, 600s, and 700s ).

	spr2008q1	spr2007q4
Start of period	2008 Jan 1	2007 Oct 1
End of period	2008 Mar 31	2007 Dec 31
Total listing of voters	131,232	289,103
Army/police voters, locality codes >=400	2,294	39,572
Percentage army+poilce / total voters	1.7%	13.7%
			Gazetted 20080205 GE2008
NamaParlimen involved in change - count	222	222	222
NamaDUN involved in change - count	572	572	572
NamaDM (Daerah Mengundi) - count	6,578	6,578	6,733
NamaLokaliti (Locality) - count	95,865	95,657	94,801

Large postal/police/army voter movements in the quarter before GE2008:

• There were large changes in voters before GE2008 (2007q4) totaling 289,103, more than double the 131,232 voter changes of the quarter (2008q1) on which the GE falls. We'll examine the reasons in the next blog, but it was mainly because
  1. potential voters were more excited about the upcoming GE, and many registered as voters for the first time,
  2. many changed their addresses, and
  3. a boost by postal voter movements.
  (Remember, where there is a change of address, the voter is counted twice in quarterly list, as a voter moving out of one place, and as a voter moving in to another place.)


• Changes registered for army/police voters total 39,752 in the quarter before GE2008, nearly as big as an urban parliamentary constituency, accounting for a whopping 13.7% of the already-large changes of 289,103.
  


• Had it been a more "regular" quarter, such as 2008q1, and considering double-counting, the 39,752 could have accounted for over 25% voter changes.
  


• In comparison, the equivalent category was only 2,294 during the GE quarter, or 1.7% of total changes for that quarter.

Background statistics about parliament, DUNs, DM, localities:

• There were 222 parliamentary constituencies -- no change because there will be no re-delineation until 2010-1011.


• There were 572 DUNs for both quarters, excluding federal territories, which sadly have no state representation.


• There 6,578 Daerah Mengundi (voting districts) for both quaters, but strangely only 6,733 DMs for the voters roll gazetted on Feb 5, 2008. Either my data has problems, or it is due to disputed/ungazetted parliamentary rolls. It is a fact that some constituencies, such as P049 (Tanjong, PP) used older 2007q3 voter list in the gazetted roll, because the 2007q4 list was disputed. It is possible that SPR had drawn up new DMs for 2007q4 (Coincidence? Or why so late?) that had to be put aside until these seats are gazetted. Such practice plus SPR errors could also have contributed to some of the past complaints about political parties receiving different voters rolls, voters getting assigned to new DMs not being able to find their familiar DMs, etc.


• There were 95,657 localities (streets, government hostels, army camp) in 2007q4, increasing to 95,865 in 2008q1, but only 94,801 for gazette date 2008 Feb 5. The reason is likely again to be disputed constituencies, such that some constituencies such as P049 included only 2007q3 list of a smaller number of localities.

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Supplementary Voter Lists 2008q1 and 2007q4

Background: What happens to the electoral roll every quarter?

About 15-30 days after the end of a quarter, SPR will publish changes to the electoral roll to allow the public to review them at post offices, as well as online at http://www.spr.gov.my/index/pamer_rang.htm. These 222 PDF files will be removed after about 2 weeks. SPR's Bahasa Malaysia Web site is more updated than the English site.

I've used some programs and scripts to extract the data into a database. You cannot use Adobe Reader's "Save As" command, because that output loses information about how the right columns are separated by spaces, tabs, etc.

The 2008 first quarter supplemental voter list is now available. I call this set of data "spr2008q1." I have also downloaded the PDF files for 2007 4th quarter, and call this set of data "spr2007q4."

I will post quick overviews of spr2008q1 (data from after the 12th General election), and some comparison with spr2007q4 (data from before the election).

What are the changes?

To begin with, we need to know what types of changes are reflected in the quarterly supplementary electoral rolls. Both ADDITIONs and DELETIONs are included, and some rows may offset the other rows. For example, one voter can move OUT from one locality, and move INTO another, and will appear twice in this list.

The ADDITIONs are reflected in the first 2 types below (types 11 nd 12). The rest are DELETIONs. The "changeType" code in the left column is MALVU's own numbering system, and is not created by the SPR. These changes were compiled from 2007q4 and 2008q1; there may be more types of changes that did not occur in these 2 quarters.

change Type	changeTypeText (SPR text)	changeTypeExplanation (Malvu explanation)
11	PENDAFTARAN BARU	Addition into list - New registration
12	PENDAFTARAN TUKAR ALAMAT	Addition into list - Change of address registration (move in)
31	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PENGENALAN DIRI TIDAK LENGKAP	Deletion from list - Identification not complete
32	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PEMILIH BERTUKAR ALAMAT	Deletion from list - Voter change address (move out)
33	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - KEMATIAN	Deletion from list - Death
34	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - HILANG KELAYAKAN SEBAGAI PENGUNDI POS	Deletion from list - Loss of eligibility as postal voter
35	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - DILUCUTKAN KEWARGANEGARAAN	Deletion from list - Loss of citizenship
36	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - BERSARA POLIS/ TENTERA	Deletion from list - Retired from police or army
37	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - MASUK TENTERA	Deletion from list - Enter into army
38	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - SILAP PENDATAAN	Deletion from list - Data mistakes
39	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - MASUK POLIS	Deletion from list - Enter into police
40	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PERGI KE LUAR NEGERI	Deletion from list - Gone out of country
41	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - PULANG DARI LUAR NEGERI	Deletion from list - Return from out of country
42	PENANDAAN PEMOTONGAN - TENTERA DI RAGUI	Deletion from list - Army in doubt (?)
99	OTHERS	Others

Alternative title for SPR2008q1: Rang Daftar Pemilih Tambahan Untuk Suku Pertama Tahun 2008 (1 JANUARI - 31 MAC). Short name for these set of data compiled by MALVU from SPR sources: "spr2008q1" and "spr2007q4."
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